How African countries became casualties of Sudan war and Red Sea maritime mayhem

How African countries became casualties of Sudan war and Red Sea maritime mayhem
This picture taken on March 7, 2024 shows the Rubymar cargo ship partly submerged off the coast of Yemen after being hit by a missile launched by Yemen’s Huthi militia. The Belize-flagged, Lebanese-operated Rubymar bulk carrier sank two days later, with 21,000 metric tons of ammonium phosphate sulfate fertilizer on board. (AFP)
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Updated 14 March 2024
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How African countries became casualties of Sudan war and Red Sea maritime mayhem

How African countries became casualties of Sudan war and Red Sea maritime mayhem
  • Twin crises have hampered exports, reduced revenues of countries of North and East Africa
  • Geopolitical tensions and violence have prompted militarization of the region, analysts say

ABIDJAN Cote d’Ivoire: Already plagued by complex internal problems, the economies of East Africa have perhaps been the most affected among regional states by the unfolding crisis in Sudan and the attacks on trade passing through the Red Sea.

The conflict in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, which began on April 15 last year, has caused massive internal and cross-border displacement as well as disruption of critical supply chains. 

Meanwhile, attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi militia, launched in response to Israel’s military operation in Gaza, have interrupted trade traffic plying East Africa’s ports, as wary firms redirect their vessels.

As a result, ports in Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somaliland have seen a reduction in the number of vessels docked.




Houthi and Palestinian flags are raised on the Galaxy Leader, a Bahamas-flagged, British-owned cargo ship seized by the Iran-backed Huthi militia off Yemen on last November. The ship is docked in a port on the Red Sea in the Yemeni province of Hodeida. (AFP/File)

The combination of these crises has hampered exports and cut revenues at a time when many regional states are themselves emerging from years of conflict, sluggish development and poor governance, all while coping with mounting climate pressures.

Egypt, for one, has suffered a significant financial blow owing to its reliance on revenues from ships passing through the Suez Canal, which has been hit by the diversion of vessels since the Houthi attacks began.

In the 2022-23 fiscal year, the Suez Canal brought Egypt $9.4 billion in revenues, according to Reuters news agency. In the first 11 days of 2024, these revenues fell by 40 percent compared with the same period in the previous year.

Egyptian authorities said that revenue in January from the Suez Canal had fallen 50 percent since the start of the year, compared with the same period in 2023. According to Reuters, instead of the 777 ships that navigated the canal last year, only 544 made the journey in early 2024.

The combination of shipping attacks and the war in Gaza has also resulted in a plunge in tourist arrivals. According to S&P Global Ratings, Egypt’s tourism revenues are set to experience a 10-30 percent fall from last year.

However, it is the world’s youngest nation, South Sudan, that has proven especially vulnerable to the recent regional instability.

Since the conflict in Sudan began, neighboring South Sudan has accepted hundreds of thousands of Sudanese refugees escaping violence, ethnic cleansing and economic collapse, which have brought the country to the brink of famine. 

South Sudan has also absorbed tens of thousands of its own citizens who had been living in Sudan. The sudden arrival of so many people has put a strain on South Sudan’s infrastructure and on the budgets of aid agencies already operating in the country. 

INNUMBERS

• 50+ Vessels using Bab Al-Mandab Strait targeted by Houthis so far.

• 3,500 nautical miles Additional distance for Cape of Good Hope route.

• 14 Extra days for a Rotterdam-Singapore journey bypassing Suez Canal.

The crisis in Sudan has also led to a proliferation of arms across porous national borders, coupled with the recruitment of foreign fighters from across the troubled Sahel belt, and the establishment of new training camps in Eritrea, threatening the wider region.

“It’s a disaster,” Dalia Abdelmoniem, a Sudanese political analyst, told Arab News. “The continuing infiltration of weapons is only worsening the war. The fact that weapons are flowing while humanitarian aid does not always get through says it all, really.” 

The challenges do not end there, however. Pipelines carrying South Sudanese oil through territories on Sudan’s side of the border have fallen under the control of the RSF, forcing Juba to negotiate deals with the paramilitary group.

In fact, the UN believes the RSF has established a fuel supply line through South Sudan to power its war effort — allegations that Juba denies.




Pipelines carrying South Sudanese oil through territories on Sudan’s side of the border have fallen under the control of the RSF, forcing Juba to negotiate deals with the paramilitary group. (AFP/File)

The oil that passes through these pipelines is shipped from Port Sudan on Sudan’s Red Sea coast. As such, South Sudan’s entire oil export process relies on Sudanese infrastructure, leaving its economy extremely vulnerable to any instability in Sudan and on the Red Sea.

At the onset of Sudan’s conflict, shipping firms refused to dock at Port Sudan unless they were given a discount. Matters were then made worse when Yemen’s Houthis began attacking vessels passing through the region, causing many ships to steer clear.

Exports from Sudan’s Bashayer Oil Terminal Port reportedly hit an 11-month low of 79,000 barrels a day in February. Juba has been searching for alternative avenues through which to export its oil. To date, however, nothing has materialized.

“South Sudan is currently facing a severe economic crisis due to the mismanagement of resources, corruption, and a failure to diversify its economy,” Akol Miyen Kuol, a South Sudanese analyst, told Arab News.

The oil industry constitutes some 90 percent of South Sudan’s revenue and nearly all of its exports, according to the World Bank. 




A view of an oil refinery complex in South Sudan. Oil constitutes almost all of South Sudan’s revenue and nearly all of its exports, according to the World Bank.  (Courtesy of South Sudan Ministry of Petroleum)

In addition to its dependence on the infrastructure of its northern neighbor, “the lack of economic diversification over the past 13 years impacts citizens significantly,” Kuol said.

The disruption to supply chains and economic activity in South Sudan has hit imports, resulting in currency depreciation and a 30 percent increase in the price of bread.

“South Sudan is not just engulfed in rising inflation, it is an impending humanitarian crisis and abject poverty all around is at an unprecedented level,” Suzanne Jambo, a South Sudanese politician and lawyer, told Arab News.

According to the World Bank, an estimated 9.4 million people, constituting roughly 76 percent of the country’s population, required humanitarian assistance in 2023. If disruption to trade continues, this number could grow.

Indeed, South Sudan’s economic woes are creating fresh political instability and security risks. 




A South Sudanese soldier monitors the area as troops belonging to the South Sudanese Unified Forces take part in a deployment ceremony at the Luri Military Training Centre in Juba on November 15, 2023. Hundreds of former rebels and government troops in South Sudan's Unified Forces were deployed at a long-overdue ceremony on November 15, 2023, marking progress for the country's lumbering peace process. (AFP)

The recent US arrest of Peter Biar Ajak, a South Sudanese opposition leader living in exile, for alleged arms smuggling, highlights the desperation among some of the country’s elites, who appear intent on plunging the country into a renewed bout of civil war.

And there appears to be little sign of relief for South Sudan’s economy on the horizon. 

Not only are the warring parties in Sudan reluctant to agree to a ceasefire — many region watchers think Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping will continue even after the conflict in Gaza ends.

Analysts believe the volatile security situation in the Red Sea has led to a militarization of the wider region.

“The ongoing instability in the Red Sea region benefits stakeholders seeking to expand control and influence at the expense of political stability and security,” said Sudanese political analyst Abdelmoniem.

When the Houthis began attacking commercial shipping in November, they claimed they were only targeting vessels with links to Israel in an attempt to pressure the Israeli government to end its military operation against Hamas in Gaza.




The UK-owned Rubymar hit by Houthi missiles in February causing an oil slick in the Red Sea. (AFP)

“These attacks not only pose a security threat but also serve as an effective public relations campaign,” Frank Slijper, an arms trade expert at PAX, a Dutch peace organization, told Arab News. 

“This signals their likely persistence unless Israel ceases its military actions against Gaza.”

However, Houthi drones, missiles and acts of piracy have been launched against multiple ships with no ties to Israel, indicating the threat to shipping is viewed by the Houthi leadership as a potential source of revenue and strategic advantage. 

In response to these attacks, many of the world’s biggest freight companies have redirected their vessels from the Suez Canal route to the Mediterranean, thereby avoiding the Red Sea, and instead are using much longer and more expensive routes via the Cape of Good Hope.

To prevent disruption to trade, protect mariners and uphold the right to freedom of navigation, the US-led patrol mission, Operation Prosperity Guardian, was established in December. 

When the Houthi attacks persisted, the US and UK launched strikes against militia targets in Yemen. However, the adaptive and well-equipped Houthi militia, with nine years of combat experience in Yemen, persists in its attacks using drones and missiles supplied by Iran.

Kholood Khair, a founding director of Confluence Advisory, a Khartoum-based think-tank, told Arab News: “These developments underscore that the Red Sea has evolved into an arena of international competition and conflict.”

Khair said that each country in the region operates based on its own logic but is also susceptible to influence from other Red Sea states and global powers such as Russia, the US and China.




Supporters and members of the Sudanese armed popular resistance, which backs the army, meeting with the city's governor in Gedaref, Sudan, on January 16, 2024 amid the ongoing conflict in Sudan between the army and paramilitaries. (AFP)

She said this is exemplified by Iran’s shipment of weapons to support the SAF at a time when SAF commander and de facto president General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan is engaged in talks with Israel about opening Sudan’s airspace to Israeli planes.

Khair said the situation “illuminates the strategic maneuvering and exploitation of diverse interests among conflicting parties” in the Red Sea region.

“What would make most sense is that the Red Sea countries should get together and set up some kind of mutual working relationship related to the Red Sea,” she told Arab News. “That way it doesn’t become an area of conflict but an area of cooperation.”

Although there have long been talks about establishing such a grouping to manage the common interests of the Red Sea littoral states, progress has been slow, in part owing to the imbalance in the size of regional economies and to the presence of US, Russian, Chinese and European naval bases in the region.

However, until regional conflicts are resolved and international shipping is permitted to traverse the Red Sea unmolested, the economic drag on regional economies is liable to continue, with potential security implications across East Africa and beyond. 

 


Russia repels Ukrainian missile attack in Rostov, governor says

Russia repels Ukrainian missile attack in Rostov, governor says
Updated 13 sec ago
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Russia repels Ukrainian missile attack in Rostov, governor says

Russia repels Ukrainian missile attack in Rostov, governor says

MOSCOW: Russian air defense systems repelled a Ukrainian attack in which 10 missiles were fired at the Rostov region of southern Russia, local governor Yuri Slyusar said on Wednesday.
A Ukrainian official said the attack targeted a chemical plant that supplied rocket fuel to Russia’s armed forces.
Slyusar, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said air defense units downed 10 missiles in the attack. Fragments from one missile triggered a fire in a house in the village of Malenkaya Kamenka and smashed windows in others.
He said there were no casualties and emergency services were at the scene. He made no mention of any industrial target.
Slyusar later said Russian air defenses had repelled an attack by seven Ukrainian drones at around midnight (2100 GMT). According to preliminary information, there were no casualties or damage, he added.
Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s official Center Against Disinformation, wrote on Telegram that the initial attack focused on the Kamensky chemical plant “which produces rocket fuel specializing in solid fuel components for rocket engines.”
The plant, he said, also produced explosive materials and components for ammunition.
Kovalenko posted a brief video showing a fire and smoke outside a fenced compound.
Reuters could not independently verify accounts of the incident from either side.
Unofficial Russian and Ukrainian blogs suggested the attack might have involved Western-supplied missiles, but there was no official confirmation from either side.
In Ukraine’s southern Zaporizhzhia region, partly occupied by Russian forces, the Russia-installed governor, Yevgeny Balitsky, said air defense units had downed four Ukrainian missiles fired at occupied areas of the region.
Initial analysis, he said, showed British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles had been used.
Reuters could not independently verify his account.


Trump brings chaos back to Washington by attempting to kill bipartisan budget deal

Trump brings chaos back to Washington by attempting to kill bipartisan budget deal
Updated 11 min 32 sec ago
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Trump brings chaos back to Washington by attempting to kill bipartisan budget deal

Trump brings chaos back to Washington by attempting to kill bipartisan budget deal

WASHINGTON: President-elect Donald Trump delivered a probable death blow to bipartisan congressional budget negotiations on Wednesday, rejecting the measure as full of giveaways to Democrats and increasing the risk of a government shutdown right before Christmas.
“Republicans must GET SMART and TOUGH. If Democrats threaten to shut down the government unless we give them everything they want, then CALL THEIR BLUFF,” Trump said in a joint statement with JD Vance, the vice president-elect.
It was a display of dominance from a president-elect still a month away from inauguration who remains hundreds of miles away at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. It reinjected a sense of chaos and political brinkmanship that was reminiscent of his first term in office.
The episode also showcased the influence of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who spent the day attacking the budget legislation as full of excessive spending. They kicked up a storm on social media — Musk even threatened to support primary challenges against anyone who voted for the measure — before Trump decided to weigh in himself.
“Kill the Bill!” Musk wrote on his social media platform X as he gleefully reposted messages from Republican House members who vowed not to back the bill.
Trump’s allies were overjoyed by his intervention, viewing it as the fulfillment of his promise to shake up Washington. But lawmakers were also left bewildered by how a crucial bipartisan deal could fall apart so quickly just days before the deadline. There are also questions about the future of Trump-backed House Speaker Mike Johnson, who was pushing the budget legislation and is up for reelection for his post in just a couple of weeks.


UK terror threat ‘smoldering’ amid potential fallout from Syria

UK terror threat ‘smoldering’ amid potential fallout from Syria
Updated 15 min 32 sec ago
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UK terror threat ‘smoldering’ amid potential fallout from Syria

UK terror threat ‘smoldering’ amid potential fallout from Syria
  • National counterterrorism coordinator says situation has never been more complex and ‘history tells us that, unfortunately, any instability creates space for extremism’
  • Border officials on high alert for possibility that British Daesh members and supporters might attempt to return to the UK

LONDON: The threat of terrorism in the UK has been described as “smoldering” amid the potential fallout from the collapse this month of the Assad regime in Syria.

Counterterrorism police fear uncertainty about Syria’s future could fuel extremist attacks in the UK, and border officials are on high alert for the possibility that British Daesh members and supporters might attempt to return to the country.

Deputy Assistant Commissioner Vicki Evans, the UK’s national counterterrorism coordinator, said the current terror threat in the country is “smoldering” and has never been more complex, given the dangers posed by extremists, state-sponsored plots and planned attacks from individuals with no obvious ideology.

“Events in Syria are certainly something that are a focus and something that all of us need to think about,” she said.

“It’s that stark reminder that we need to focus on old enemies of peace and security as well as the new. History tells us that, unfortunately, any instability creates space for extremism, for violence and acts of terror.”

Although the British government has engaged diplomatically with Syria’s new de facto leader, Ahmad Al-Sharaa, Evans noted that his organization, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, remains a banned terrorist group under UK law and anyone who demonstrates support for it could face terror-related charges. She said no one has been arrested so far for such activity but would neither confirm nor deny whether anybody is under investigation.

Evans also revealed that counterterrorism police are increasingly finding images of extreme violence, pornography, misogyny and gore, which sometimes fuel terror plans, in the online viewing histories of suspects as young as 10 years old.

“It’s a pick-and-mix of horror. These sorts of grotesque fascinations with violence and harmful views that we’re seeing are increasingly common,” she said.

“We most definitely need to think differently about how we stop that conveyor belt of young people who are seeing and being exposed to this type of material and, unfortunately, sometimes then going on to commit horrific acts.”


North Korea slams ‘reckless’ US-led criticism of involvement in Ukraine

North Korea slams ‘reckless’ US-led criticism of involvement in Ukraine
Updated 19 December 2024
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North Korea slams ‘reckless’ US-led criticism of involvement in Ukraine

North Korea slams ‘reckless’ US-led criticism of involvement in Ukraine

SEOUL: North Korea on Thursday lashed out at the United States and its allies for criticizing its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, including the deployment of troops, rejecting what it called a “reckless provocation.”
In a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency, a foreign ministry spokesman said the declaration by 10 nations and the European Union was “distorting and slandering” Pyongyang’s “normal cooperative” ties with Moscow.
 


Zelensky huddles with European leaders as Trump looms

Zelensky huddles with European leaders as Trump looms
Updated 19 December 2024
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Zelensky huddles with European leaders as Trump looms

Zelensky huddles with European leaders as Trump looms
  • “Europe needs a strong, united position to ensure lasting peace,” Zelensky stressed as he arrived in the Belgian capital

BRUSSELS, Belgium: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with NATO chief Mark Rutte and key European leaders in Brussels Wednesday to strategize over Russia’s war ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Addressing reporters alongside Rutte, Zelensky called it a “very good opportunity to speak about security guarantees for Ukraine, for today and for tomorrow.”
The pair were to be joined later in the evening at the NATO’s chief’s official residence by leaders from Germany, Poland, Italy, Denmark, The Netherlands and the European Union’s main institutions.
French President Emmanuel Macron and British premier Keir Starmer were to miss the gathering due to schedule clashes — sending their foreign ministers instead — but Macron met Zelensky for bilateral talks just beforehand.
The huddle came just over a month before Trump reclaims the US presidency, having pledged to bring a swift end to a conflict that NATO says has left more than one million dead and wounded since Russia’s 2022 invasion.
There are fears that Trump could pull US support for Kyiv and force it to make painful concessions to Moscow. European leaders, keen not to be left on the sidelines, are scrambling to come up with their own plans.
“Europe needs a strong, united position to ensure lasting peace,” Zelensky stressed as he arrived in the Belgian capital.
European leaders insist that only Ukraine should decide when it is ready to negotiate with Russia.
The meeting’s top focus, Rutte said, was to make sure that Ukraine was “in the best possible position one day, when they decide to start the peace talks.”
Likewise German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters earlier in Brussels the priority was to secure the “sovereignty of Ukraine — and that it will not be forced to submit to a dictated peace.”
But discussions have begun between some capitals over the potential deployment of European troops to Ukraine to secure any eventual ceasefire.
While this was raised at a recent meeting between Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, diplomats say it remains too early to draw up concrete proposals.
Scholz told reporters that discussing boots on the ground was premature, saying it “does not make sense” at this stage.
Rutte instead said Kyiv’s allies should focus on ramping up arms supplies — and urged them not to debate possible peace conditions in public as it risks playing into Moscow’s hands.
“If we now start to discuss among ourselves what a deal could look like, we make it so easy for the Russians,” he said.
Western backers are seeking to shore up Ukraine’s forces as Kyiv’s fatigued troops are losing ground across the frontline and Moscow has deployed North Koreans to the battlefield.
Zelensky — who will also attend an EU summit on Thursday — said he wanted to discuss “how to urgently strengthen Ukraine on the battlefield, politically and geopolitically.”
Most immediately Zelensky is pleading for over a dozen more air defense systems to try to help stave off Russian barrages against Ukraine’s power grid.
But Ukraine’s leader has said Trump’s arrival could mean the war ends next year, and has called for allies to help secure a peace deal that Moscow cannot violate.
As the change of guard approached in the US, Zelensky has appeared to soften his stance on any potential peace push.
He has said that if Ukraine is given firm security guarantees by NATO and enough weaponry it could agree to a ceasefire along current lines and look to regain the rest of its territory through diplomatic means.
But NATO members have rebuffed Kyiv’s calls for an invitation to join their alliance right away, sparking speculation that sending peacekeepers could be an alternative.
“Officially that is not on the agenda, but since there will be a lot of important people in the same room, it cannot entirely be ruled out,” a NATO diplomat said.
The meeting is “basically about Zelensky asking for more military aid,” the diplomat added.