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It would not be a massive exaggeration to argue that America’s 2024 primaries, for both the Democratic and Republican parties, are predictable, uninspiring and, above all, the manifestation of a deep leadership crisis that reflects a fragmented American society.
It is hard to remember a more uneventful Super Tuesday than last week’s, even though 15 states and one US territory chose a third of the delegates for the parties’ respective conventions, during which they will anoint their nominees. The only excitement was among Democrats when Joe Biden lost American Samoa, a US territory in the Pacific — his one and only loss — to a completely unknown entrepreneur named Jason Palmer, which has the potential to become a tricky question in pub quizzes for years to come.
Meanwhile, among the Republicans, Nikki Haley scored Vermont to add to her only previous success in the District of Columbia, just before announcing that she would be “suspending” her campaign. Given no act of nature or, in Donald Trump’s case, a judge, we are all bracing ourselves for a rerun of the 2020 presidential race, but this time with even more venom, especially from the Trump camp.
This will be an election campaign like no other, with the record-breaking combined age of the two candidates on election day being 159, with Biden leading by three years. This would not have been an issue as such, were it not for the voters themselves raising grave concerns about it, especially among the Democrats.
Only 33 percent of Americans approve of the president’s performance in office, while 65 percent disapprove
Yossi Mekelberg
Biden’s first term has had its highs and lows, but if the phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” determines how the electorate votes, Biden should win the November election — and win big. The last quarter of 2023 witnessed strong growth and the economy is expected to grow this year by 2.2 percent, at the same time as the US labor market continues to be buoyant, helped by expectations of a first interest rate cut in some time, while inflation is being kept at bay.
Biden inherited a very chaotic situation from his predecessor, but still his administration managed to guide the economy out of the depths of the pandemic-related recession and later shield it from the economic shockwaves caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, within a short time, a list of accomplishments ensued, among them being a massive investment in infrastructure and the green economy. The Biden administration has also ensured aid for veterans, brought in the first major gun-control legislation in a generation and made significant investments in the country’s technological and scientific sectors to enable it to compete with China.
In the international arena, the US showed leadership in responding to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and renewed its commitment to NATO, which under Trump had reached its lowest ebb. Certainly, Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza and letting it rage for so long despite the mounting casualties and devastation among Palestinians is a stain on his presidency, but would Trump have behaved any differently?
For many observers of American politics, at home and abroad, a second Trump administration is a terrifying prospect. In the words of Haley, who was appointed ambassador to the UN by Trump, his reelection would bring “four more years of chaos” that the US “won’t survive.”
Considering Trump’s incoherent worldview, his long list of legal woes and his complete inability to think strategically, Biden should be on cruise control with victory in sight, but instead his approval ratings are abysmal. Only 33 percent of Americans approve of the president’s performance in office, while 65 percent disapprove. In a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, the only positive personal trait that a majority of respondents could agree on is that he is even-tempered, most certainly more so than his prospective rival.
Rarely are there easy decisions in politics, especially when the stakes are so high, but right now they could not be higher
Yossi Mekelberg
The vast majority of Republican supporters see no positive traits in Biden, which suggests they are not ready to be convinced otherwise, come rain or shine. In a different poll, a majority of those who voted for him in 2020 now believe he is just too old to lead the country effectively.
When Biden was first nominated as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate and when he later won the 2020 election, the prevailing belief was that, considering his age and also what he represented, he would be a one-term president. It was thought he would try to stabilize and heal the nation after the four frenzied years of his predecessor, especially after the Jan. 6 insurrection, and then retire gracefully. But it quickly became apparent that there was at least one person in the White House who thought differently and, mysteriously, no one within the party is challenging him, while time is running out.
Yet, last week’s New York Times/Siena poll should alarm the Democratic Party from its leadership to its grassroots activists. Biden’s 43 percent support lagged behind Trump’s 48 percent in this national survey of registered voters and there is erosion among the segments of society that traditionally support Democratic candidates, including women, Blacks, Latinos and working-class voters.
There is little time and almost impossible constitutional hurdles for the party to deal with in order to replace Biden and choose another nominee to run for president. However, considering that not doing so might mean handing Trump a second presidency, Democrats are facing a genuine and painful dilemma. Do they replace Biden for the sake of winning the forthcoming election and, by that, save the country from what might make all of us nostalgic for Trump’s first term? Or do they show loyalty to a long-time and devoted servant of his party and country and, by that, risk losing the election and seeing the country take the path toward a dangerous and unpredictable future?
Rarely are there easy decisions in politics, especially when the stakes are so high, but right now they could not be higher for America. Hence, it is time, in the name of expediency and putting the country first, to say farewell to Biden, while expressing genuine gratitude for his services to both party and country. The easy way out would be to decide against this unusual course of action, but Democrats might rue such a choice for years to come if they lose this upcoming election because they did not treat the present turmoil in which their country finds itself as a crisis that calls for drastic measures.
- Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Program at international affairs think tank Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg