The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza

The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza
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Demonstrators protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and call for new elections in the latest weekly protest against his handling of the Israel-Hamas war, in Tel Aviv, on Feb. 17, 2024. (AP/File)
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Updated 06 March 2024
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The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza

The brutal logic of Hamas’ hostage strategy could deny Israel victory in Gaza
  • Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements
  • Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan

GAZA STRIP: Over the last five months, Israel has killed thousands of Hamas fighters, destroyed dozens of their tunnels and wreaked unprecedented destruction on the Gaza Strip.
But it still faces a dilemma that was clear from the start of the war and will ultimately determine its outcome: It can either try to annihilate Hamas, which would mean almost certain death for the estimated 100 hostages still held in Gaza, or it can cut a deal that would allow the militants to claim a historic victory.
Either outcome would be excruciating for Israelis. Either would likely seal an ignominious end for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long political career. And either might be seen as acceptable by Hamas, which valorizes martyrdom.
Netanyahu, at least in public, denies there is any such dilemma. He has vowed to destroy Hamas and recover all the hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefire agreements, saying victory could come “in a matter of weeks.”
As long as the war rages, he can avoid early elections that polls strongly suggest would remove him from power. But it seems inevitable that at some point a choice will have to be made between the hostages and military victory.
Hamas, meanwhile, appears to be in no hurry to reach a temporary ceasefire ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins next week, or to delay an expected Israeli operation in Rafah, the southern city where half of Gaza’s population has sought refuge.
Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar, the alleged mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack against Israel, has reason to believe that as long as he holds the hostages, he can eventually end the war on his terms.
SINWAR’S BLOODY GAMBLE
In over two decades spent inside Israeli prisons, Sinwar reportedly learned fluent Hebrew and studied Israeli society, and he identified a chink in the armor of his militarily superior adversary.
He learned that Israel cannot tolerate its people, especially soldiers, being held captive, and will go to extraordinary lengths to bring them home. Sinwar himself was among over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for a single captive soldier in 2011.
For Sinwar, the mass killings on Oct. 7 might have been a horrific sideshow to the main operation, which was to drag large numbers of hostages into a vast labyrinth of tunnels beneath Gaza, where Israel would be unable to rescue them, and where they could serve as human shields for Hamas leaders.
Once that was accomplished, he had a powerful bargaining chip that could be traded for large numbers of Palestinian prisoners, including top leaders serving life sentences, and an end to the Israeli onslaught that Hamas had anticipated.
No amount of 2,000-pound bombs could overcome the strategy’s brutal logic.
Israeli officials say the tunnels stretch for hundreds of kilometers (miles) and some are several stories underground, guarded by blast doors and booby traps. Even if Israel locates Hamas leaders, any operation would mean almost certain death for the hostages that likely surround them.
“The objectives are quite contradictory,” said Amos Harel, a longtime military correspondent for Israel’s Haaretz newspaper. “Of course, you can say it will take a year to defeat Hamas, and we’re moving ahead on that, but the problem is that nobody can ensure that the hostages will remain alive.”
He added that even if Israel somehow kills Sinwar and other top leaders, others would move up the ranks and replace them, as has happened in the past.
“Israel will have a really hard time winning this,” Harel said.
Israel has successfully rescued three hostages since the start of the war, all of whom were aboveground. Israeli troops killed three hostages by mistake, and Hamas says several others were killed in airstrikes or failed rescue operations. More than 100 hostages were released in a ceasefire deal in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Netanyahu says military pressure will eventually bring about the release of the roughly 100 hostages, and the remains of 30 others, still held by Hamas.
But in candid remarks in January, Gadi Eisenkot, Israel’s former top general and a member of Netanyahu’s War Cabinet, said anyone suggesting the remaining hostages could be freed without a ceasefire deal was spreading “illusions.”
It’s hard to imagine Hamas releasing its most valuable human shields for a temporary ceasefire, only to see Israel resume its attempt to annihilate the group, and Hamas has rejected the idea of its leaders surrendering and going into exile.
For Sinwar, it’s better to stay underground with the hostages and see if his bet pays off.
HOW DOES THIS END?
Netanyahu’s government is under mounting pressure from families of the hostages, who fear time is running out, and the wider public, which views the return of captives as a sacred obligation.
President Joe Biden, Israel’s most important ally, is at risk of losing re-election in November, in part because of Democratic divisions over the war. The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza has sparked worldwide outrage. The war threatens to ignite other fronts across the Middle East.
There’s a Hamas proposal on the table in which the hostages come back alive.
It calls for the phased release of all of the captives in return for Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Gaza, a long-term ceasefire and reconstruction. Israel would also release hundreds of prisoners, including top Palestinian political leaders and militants convicted of killing civilians.
Hamas would almost certainly remain in control of Gaza and might even hold victory parades. With time, it could recruit new fighters, rebuild tunnels and replenish its arsenals.
It would be an extremely costly victory, with over 30,000 Palestinians killed and the total destruction of much of Gaza. Palestinians would have different opinions on whether it was all worth it.
A rare wartime poll last year found rising support for Hamas, with over 40 percent of Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza backing the group.
That support would only grow if Hamas succeeds in lifting the longstanding blockade on Gaza, said Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at the Crisis Group, an international think tank.
“If this is able to bring some serious concessions that can make life just marginally better, then I think not only will this bolster support for Hamas, but it could also bolster support for armed resistance more broadly.”
Netanyahu has rejected Hamas’ proposal as “delusional,” but there is no sign the militant group is backing away from its core demands.
Israel can keep fighting – for weeks, months or years. The army can kill more fighters and demolish more tunnels, while carefully avoiding areas where it thinks the hostages are held.
But at some point, Netanyahu or his successor will likely have to make one of the most agonizing decisions in the country’s history, or it will be made for them.


’Hell worse than what we have already?’ Gazans reject Trump plans

’Hell worse than what we have already?’ Gazans reject Trump plans
Updated 7 sec ago
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’Hell worse than what we have already?’ Gazans reject Trump plans

’Hell worse than what we have already?’ Gazans reject Trump plans
  • Under Trump’s scheme, Gaza’s about 2.2 million Palestinians would be resettled and the United States would take control and ownership of the coastal territory, redeveloping it into the “Riviera of the Middle East”
  • Any suggestion that Palestinians leave Gaza — which they want to be part of an independent state also encompassing the West Bank with East Jerusalem as its capital — has been anathema to the Palestinian leadership for generations

CAIRO/RAMALLAH/GAZA: With his Gaza home destroyed in Israel’s military offensive, Shaban Shaqaleh had intended to take his family on a break to Egypt once the Hamas-Israel ceasefire was firmly in place.
He changed his mind after US President Donald Trump announced plans to resettle Gaza’s Palestinian residents and redevelop the enclave, and said they should not have the right to return.
The Tel Al-Hawa neighborhood in Gaza City, where dozens of multi-story buildings once stood, is now largely deserted. There is no running water or electricity and, like most buildings there, Shaqaleh’s home is in ruins.
“We are horrified by the destruction, the repeated displacement and the death, and I wanted to leave so I can secure a safe and better future for my children — until Trump said what he said,” Shaqaleh, 47, told Reuters via a chat app.
“After Trump’s remarks I canceled the idea. I fear leaving and never being able to come back. This is my homeland.”
Palestinians fear that Trump’s plan would enforce another Nakba, or Catastrophe, when they experienced mass expulsions in 1948 with the creation of Israel.
Under Trump’s scheme, Gaza’s about 2.2 million Palestinians would be resettled and the United States would take control and ownership of the coastal territory, redeveloping it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”
“The idea of selling my home or the piece of land I own to foreign companies to leave the homeland and never come back is completely rejected. I am deeply rooted in the soil of my homeland and will always be,” Shaqaleh said.
Any suggestion that Palestinians leave Gaza — which they want to be part of an independent state also encompassing the West Bank with East Jerusalem as its capital — has been anathema to the Palestinian leadership for generations. Neighbouring Arab states have rejected it since the Gaza war began in 2023.

SATURDAY DEADLINE
After Hamas said on Monday it was suspending the release of Israeli hostages set out in the ceasefire deal due to alleged Israeli violations, Trump said the Palestinian militant group should release all those it still holds by noon on Saturday or he would propose canceling the truce and “let hell break out.”
“Hell worse than what we have already? Hell worse than killing?” said Jomaa Abu Kosh, a Palestinian from Rafah in southern Gaza, standing beside devastated homes.
One woman, Samira Al-Sabea, accused Israel of blocking aid deliveries, a charge denied by Israel.
“We are humiliated, street dogs are living a better life than us,” she said. “And Trump wants to make Gaza hell? This will never happen.”
Israel began its assault on Gaza after the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, that killed about 1,200 people while some 250 were taken hostage, according to Israeli tallies.
The operation has killed more than 48,000 Palestinians, by Gaza authorities’ counts, and obliterated much of the enclave.
Some Gazans said Palestinian leaders must find a solution to their problems.
“We don’t want to leave our country but also need a solution. Our leaders — Hamas, the PA (Palestinian Authority) and other factions — must find a solution,” said a 40-year-old carpenter who gave his name as Jehad.

’DOES HE OWN GAZA?“
In the occupied West Bank, Palestinians were also aghast at Trump’s words.
“Does he own Gaza to ask people to leave it?” said Nader Imam. “Regarding Trump I only blame the American people. How can a country like this, a superpower, accept a person like Trump? His statements are savage.”
“What will Trump do? There is no fear, we rely on God,” said another West Bank resident, Mohammed Salah Tamimi.
The proposal shattered decades of US peace efforts built around a two-state solution and added pressure on neighboring Egypt and Jordan to take in resettled Palestinians.
Both countries, who receive billions in aid from the United States, rejected the plan citing concerns for national security and their commitment to the two-state solution.
For Jordan, which borders the West Bank and has absorbed more Palestinians than any other state since Israel’s creation, the plan is a nightmare.
Trump said he might withhold aid to Jordan and Egypt if they refused to cooperate. Jordan’s King Abdullah is set to meet Trump in Washington on Tuesday and is expected to express his rejection of the plan.
“Jordan can never accept resolving this issue at its expense.” said Suleiman Saud, the chairman of the Palestine Committee in Jordan’s House of Representatives. “Jordan is for Jordanians, and Palestine is for Palestinians.”

 


Friends of Italian priest long missing in Syria hope for news

Friends of Italian priest long missing in Syria hope for news
Updated 19 min 5 sec ago
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Friends of Italian priest long missing in Syria hope for news

Friends of Italian priest long missing in Syria hope for news
  • Tens of thousands of people have been detained or gone missing in Syria during more than a decade of conflict, many disappearing into Assad’s jails

NABEK, Syria: In a centuries-old monastery on a rocky hill north of Damascus, friends of missing Italian priest Paolo Dall’Oglio carry on his legacy, hopeful Bashar Assad’s ouster might help reveal the Jesuit’s fate.
“We want to know if Father Paolo is alive or dead, who imprisoned him, and what was his fate,” said Father Jihad Youssef who heads Deir Mar Musa Al-Habashi, about 100 kilometers (62 miles) north of Damascus.
For years, Dall’Oglio lived in Deir Mar Musa — the monastery of St. Moses the Ethiopian — which dates to around the 6th century. He is credited with helping restore the place of worship.
A fierce critic of Assad, whose 2011 repression of anti-government protests sparked war, he was exiled the following year for meeting with opposition members, returning secretly to opposition-controlled areas in 2013.
He disappeared that summer while heading to the Raqqa headquarters of a group that would later become known as the Daesh, to plead for the release of kidnapped activists.
Conflicting reports emerged on Dall’Oglio’s whereabouts, including that he was kidnapped by the extremists, killed or handed to the Syrian government.
Daesh’s territorial defeat in Syria in 2019 brought no new information.
Tens of thousands of people have been detained or gone missing in Syria during more than a decade of conflict, many disappearing into Assad’s jails.
His December overthrow has enabled his friends at the monastery to openly discuss suspicions Dall’Oglio might have been “imprisoned by the regime,” Youssef said.
“We waited to see a sign of him... in Saydnaya prison or Palestine Branch,” Youssef said, referring to notorious detention facilities from which detainees were released after Assad’s toppling.
“We were told a lot of things, including that he was seen in the Adra prison in 2019,” Youssef said, referring to another facility outside Damascus, “but nothing reliable.”

Dall’Oglio, born in 1954, hosted interfaith seminars at Deir Mar Musa where Syria’s Christian minority and Muslims used to pray side by side, turning the monastery into a symbol of coexistence.
Youssef said it became a bridge for dialogue between Syrians in a country that “the former regime divided into sects who feared each other.”
Some 30,000 people visited in 2010, but the war and Dall’Oglio’s disappearance scared them away for more than a decade.
The monastery reopened for visitors in 2022.
“I didn’t know Father Paolo,” said Shatha Al-Barrah, 28, who came to Deir Mar Musa seeking solace and reflection.
But “I know he reflects this monastery, which opens its heart to all people from all faiths,” said the interpreter as she climbed the 300 steps leading to the building, built on the ruins of a Roman tower and partly carved into the rock.
Julian Zakka said Dall’Oglio was one of the reasons he joined the Jesuit order.
“Father Paolo used to work against associating Islam with extremists,” said the 28-year-old, “and to emphasize that coexistence is possible.”

After Islamist-led rebels ended half a century of one-family rule, the new authorities have sought to reassure minorities that they will be protected.
Assad had presented himself as a protector of minorities in multi-ethnic, multi-confessional Syria, but largely concentrated power in the hands of the Alawite community to whom his family belonged.
This month, Jesuits in Syria emphasized the need for healing, noting in a statement that fear had “shackled” the community for years.
Youssef said that while “the regime presented itself as protecting us, in fact it was using us as protection.”
He expressed optimism that “at last, the load has been lifted from our chests and we can breathe” after decades of “political death,” adding that he hoped the new authorities would be inclusive.
For now, Youssef is intent on spreading Dall’Oglio’s message.
“We will return to organizing activities like he loved to do,” Youssef said, including a march in Homs province, home to Alawites, Sunni and Shiite Muslims.
“The regime caused deep wounds between the Islamic sects” in Homs, he said.
“Father Paolo wanted to organize a large procession there — to pray at the mass graves, to be a bridge between people — to let them listen to each other’s pain, grieve and cry together, and stand hand in hand.”
 

 


Lebanon PM says ‘state must extend authority’ to all areas

Lebanon PM says ‘state must extend authority’ to all areas
Updated 21 min 14 sec ago
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Lebanon PM says ‘state must extend authority’ to all areas

Lebanon PM says ‘state must extend authority’ to all areas
  • Nawaf Salam’s government faces the daunting task of overseeing the fragile Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire

BEIRUT: Lebanon’s prime minister said Tuesday the state must be in control of all Lebanese territory, in a televised interview days before a deadline to implement the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement.
Nawaf Salam’s government, which was officially formed on Saturday after more than two years of caretaker leadership, faces the daunting task of overseeing the fragile ceasefire and rebuilding a war-scarred country.
The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire has been in place since November 27, after more than a year of hostilities including two months of all-out war.
“When it comes to the areas south of the Litani and north of the Litani, across the entire area of Lebanon... what should be implemented is.... the Lebanese state must extend its authority through its own forces across the (Lebanese) territory,” Salam told journalists in the interview aired on state television.
“We want the Israeli withdrawal to happen... and we will continue to mobilize all diplomatic and political efforts until this withdrawal is achieved,” he added.
Under the deal, Lebanon’s military was to deploy in the south alongside UN peacekeepers as the Israeli army withdrew over a 60-day period, which has been extended until February 18.
Hezbollah was also meant to leave its positions in the south, near the Israeli border, over that period.
Salam said that World Bank estimates had put the cost of reconstruction of war-hit areas of Lebanon “at between $8 and $9 billion, but today it has risen to between $10 and $11 billion.”


Israeli kibbutz says elderly hostage held in Gaza dead

Israeli kibbutz says elderly hostage held in Gaza dead
Updated 46 min 12 sec ago
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Israeli kibbutz says elderly hostage held in Gaza dead

Israeli kibbutz says elderly hostage held in Gaza dead
  • The kibbutz called on the Israeli government and world leaders “to continue acting with determination to bring back all the hostages, both the living and the dead, and not to allow painful stories like Shlomo’s to repeat themselves”

JERUSALEM: An elderly Israeli man taken hostage by Hamas militants on October 7, 2023, has been declared dead, a statement from his kibbutz said on Tuesday.
“With heavy hearts, we, the members of the kibbutz, received the news this morning about the murder of our dear friend, Shlomo Mansour, 86 years old, who was kidnapped from his home in Kibbutz Kissufim during the Hamas terror attack on October 7, 2023,” the community said of the Iraqi-born Israeli.
The Israeli military said in a statement on Tuesday that the “decision to confirm his death was based on intelligence gathered in recent months.”

Shlomo Mantzur, an Israeli hostage who was kidnapped in the deadly October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas and announced that he was killed on that same day, by Israel authority today, is pictured in this undated handout photo. (REUTERS)

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a post on X that Mansour had been “murdered in captivity” by Hamas on October 7.
One of the founders of Kibbutz Kissufim, Mansour was kidnapped from a henhouse during Hamas’s attack on southern Israel.
His wife Mazal Mansour, with whom he lived for 60 years, managed to escape the attack. The couple have five children and 12 grandchildren.
The Israeli hostage forum said in a statement that Mansour, born in Baghdad, was a survivor of the Farhud pogrom — a 1941 attack on Iraq’s Jewish community — and immigrated to Israel with his family at 13.
“This is one of the most difficult days in the history of our kibbutz,” the community of Kissufim said in a statement.
“Shlomo was much more than a community member to us — he was a father, grandfather, a true friend and the beating heart of Kissufim.”
“Our hearts are broken that we couldn’t bring him back to us alive.”
The kibbutz called on the Israeli government and world leaders “to continue acting with determination to bring back all the hostages, both the living and the dead, and not to allow painful stories like Shlomo’s to repeat themselves.”
In a statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he and his wife, Sara, “share in the family’s deep mourning.”
“We will not rest and will not be silent until he is returned to a burial in Israel. We will continue to act with determination and without pause until we return all of our hostages — both the living and the fallen,” he said.
A fragile ceasefire reached last month between Hamas and Israel appeared strained on Tuesday, a day after Hamas threatened to postpone the release of Israeli hostages scheduled for Saturday.
On Monday, US President Donald Trump warned that “all hell” would break loose if every Israeli hostage is not released from Gaza within the coming days, a threat Hamas said “further complicates matters.”
The war in Gaza was triggered by the Hamas attack, the deadliest in Israel’s history, which resulted in the deaths of 1,211 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of official Israeli figures.
Militants also took 251 hostages, of whom 73 remain in Gaza, including 35 that Israeli officials say are dead.
The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza says the war has killed at least 48,208 people in the territory, figures which the UN considers reliable.
 

 


Turkmenistan reaches deal with Turkiye to ship natural gas via Iran

Turkmenistan reaches deal with Turkiye to ship natural gas via Iran
Updated 11 February 2025
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Turkmenistan reaches deal with Turkiye to ship natural gas via Iran

Turkmenistan reaches deal with Turkiye to ship natural gas via Iran
  • Turkiye imports gas via pipelines from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran

ASHGABAT, Turkmenistan: Turkmenistan has struck a deal to ship natural gas to Turkiye via Iran, a government daily reported Tuesday.
The official daily Neutral Tyrkmenistan said that Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, the chairman of the country’s People’s Council, welcomed the deal in a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Berdymukhamedov said it was a major development in the regional energy cooperation.
Gas supplies under the contract that was signed between the state-run Turkmengas company and Turkiye’s state-owned BOTAS will begin on March 1.
“With this agreement, which we have been working on for many years, we will strengthen the natural gas supply security of our country and our region, while furthering the strategic cooperation between the two countries,” Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said in a statement.
Turkiye imports gas via pipelines from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran.
Last year, Turkmenistan signed a contract with Iran for 10 billion cubic meters (353 billion cubic feet) of natural gas to be shipped on to Iraq.
The ex-Soviet Central Asian country relies heavily on the export of its vast natural gas reserves. China is the nation’s main customer for gas and Turkmenistan also is working on a pipeline to supply gas to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.