Israel, Lebanon are prepping for a war neither wants, but many fear it’s becoming inevitable

Israel, Lebanon are prepping for a war neither wants, but many fear it’s becoming inevitable
An Israeli soldier carries a howitzer shell near the border with Lebanon on Jan. 11, 2024. (AP)
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Updated 01 February 2024
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Israel, Lebanon are prepping for a war neither wants, but many fear it’s becoming inevitable

Israel, Lebanon are prepping for a war neither wants, but many fear it’s becoming inevitable
  • Such a war could be the most destructive either side has ever experienced
  • Israel and Hezbollah each have lessons from their last war, in 2006, a monthlong conflict that ended in a draw

BEIRUT: The prospect of a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia terrifies people on both sides of the border, but some see it as an inevitable fallout from Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza.
Such a war could be the most destructive either side has ever experienced.
Israel and Hezbollah each have lessons from their last war, in 2006, a monthlong conflict that ended in a draw. They’ve also had four months to prepare for another war, even as the United States tries to prevent a widening of the conflict.
Here’s a look at each side’s preparedness, how war might unfold and what’s being done to prevent it.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2006?
The 2006 war, six years after Israeli forces withdrew from south Lebanon, erupted after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers and killed several others in a cross-border raid.
Israel launched a full-scale air and ground offensive and imposed a blockade that aimed to free the hostages and destroy Hezbollah’s military capabilities — a mission that ultimately failed.
Israeli bombing leveled large swaths of south Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs. Hezbollah fired thousands of unguided rockets into northern Israel communities.
The conflict killed some 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.
A United Nations resolution ending the war called for withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon and a demilitarized zone on Lebanon’s side of the border.
Despite the deployment of UN peacekeepers, Hezbollah continues to operate in the border area, while Lebanon says Israel regularly violates its airspace and continues to occupy pockets of Lebanese land.
HOW PROBABLE IS WAR?
An Israel-Hezbollah war “would be a total disaster,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned last month, amid a flurry of shuttle diplomacy by the US and Europe.
Iran-backed Hezbollah seemed caught off-guard by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel, a regional ally. Since then, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged daily cross-border strikes, escalating gradually. Israel also carried out targeted killings of Hezbollah and Hamas figures in Lebanon.
More than 200 people, mostly Hezbollah fighters but also more than 20 civilians, have been killed on Lebanon’s side, and 18 on Israel’s.
Tens of thousands have been displaced on both sides. There are no immediate prospects for their return.
Israeli political and military leaders have warned Hezbollah that war is increasingly probable unless the militants withdraw from the border.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah hasn’t threatened to initiate war but warned of a fight “without limits” if Israel does. Hezbollah says it won’t agree to a ceasefire on the Israel-Lebanon border before there’s one in Gaza and has rebuffed a US proposal to move its forces several kilometers (miles) back from the border, according to Lebanese officials.
Despite the rhetoric, neither side appears to want war, said Andrea Tenenti, spokesperson for the UN peacekeeping mission in south Lebanon. However, “a miscalculation could potentially trigger a wider conflict that would be very difficult to control,” he said.
HOW PREPARED ARE THEY?
Both Hezbollah and the Israeli military have expanded capabilities since 2006 — yet both countries also are more fragile.
In Lebanon, four years of economic crisis have crippled public institutions, including its army and electrical grid, and eroded its health system. The country hosts more than 1 million Syrian refugees.
Lebanon adopted an emergency plan for a war scenario in late October. It projected the forcible displacement of 1 million Lebanese for 45 days.
About 87,000 Lebanese are displaced from the border area. While the government is relying on international organizations to fund the response, many groups working in Lebanon can’t maintain existing programs.
The UN refugee agency has provided supplies to collective shelters and given emergency cash to some 400 families in south Lebanon, spokesperson Lisa Abou Khaled said. The agency doesn’t have funds to support large numbers of displaced in the event of war, she said.
Aid group Doctors Without Borders said it has stockpiled some 10 tons of medical supplies and backup fuel for hospital generators in areas most likely to be affected by a widening conflict, in anticipation of a blockade.
Israel is feeling economic and social strain from the war in Gaza, which is expected to cost over $50 billion, or about 10 percent of national economic activity through the end of 2024, according to the Bank of Israel. Costs would rise sharply if there’s war with Lebanon.
“No one wants this war, or wishes it on anyone,” said Tal Beeri of the Alma Research and Education Center, a think tank focusing on northern Israel security. But he said he believes an armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is inevitable, arguing that diplomatic solutions appear unlikely and would only allow Hezbollah’s strategic threats to increase.
Israel has evacuated 60,000 residents from towns nearest the border, where there’s no warning time for rocket launches because of the proximity of Hezbollah squads.
In a war, there would be no point in additional evacuations since the militia’s rockets and missiles can reach all of Israel.
After the Oct. 7 attack, the war in Gaza had broad domestic support, even if there’s now a growing debate over its direction. Around half of Israelis would support war with Hezbollah as a last resort for restoring border security, according to recent polling by the think tank Israel Democracy Institute.
In Lebanon, some have criticized Hezbollah for exposing the country to another potentially devastating war. Others support the group’s limited entry into the conflict and believe Hezbollah’s arsenal will deter Israel from escalating.
HOW WOULD WAR PLAY OUT?
A full-scale war would likely spread to multiple fronts, escalating the involvement of Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen — and perhaps even draw in Iran itself.
It could also drag the US, Israel’s closest ally, deeper into the conflict. The US already has dispatched additional warships to the region.
Hezbollah has 150,000 to 200,000 rockets and missiles of various ranges, said Orna Mizrahi of the Israeli think tank Institute for National Security Studies. This arsenal is at least five times larger than that of Hamas and far more accurate, she said.
The militia’s guided projectiles could reach water, electricity or communications facilities, and densely populated residential areas.
In Lebanon, airstrikes would likely wreak havoc on infrastructure and potentially kill thousands. Netanyahu has threatened to “turn Beirut into Gaza,” where Israel’s air and ground incursion has caused widespread destruction and killed more than 26,000 people, according to Hamas-controlled Gaza’s Health Ministry.
Israel is far more protected, with several air defense systems, including the Iron Dome, which intercepts rockets with a roughly 90 percent success rate. But it can get overwhelmed if a mass barrage of rockets is fired.
Some 40 percent of Israel’s population live in newer homes with private safe rooms fortified with blast protection to withstand rocket attacks. Israel also has a network of bomb shelters, but a 2020 government report says about one-third of Israelis lack easy access to them.
Lebanon has no such network, and shelters would be of little use against massive “bunker buster” bombs Israel has dropped in Gaza.
Hezbollah has limited air defenses, while those of the Lebanese army are outdated and insufficient because of budget shortfalls, said Dina Arakji, with the UK-based risk consultancy firm Control Risks.
The Lebanese army has remained on the sidelines over the past four months. In 2006, it entered fighting in a limited capacity, but it’s unclear how it would react in the event of a new Israel-Hezbollah war.


US says Israel to open new Gaza crossing as aid deadline looms

Children stare at the destruction following an Israeli strike in the Nuseirat refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip on November
Children stare at the destruction following an Israeli strike in the Nuseirat refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip on November
Updated 07 November 2024
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US says Israel to open new Gaza crossing as aid deadline looms

Children stare at the destruction following an Israeli strike in the Nuseirat refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip on November
  • The US has given Israel until November 13 to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza
  • Letter calls for a minimum of 350 trucks per day to be allowed into Gaza

WASHINGTON: Israel has informed the United States that it will open an additional crossing for aid into Gaza, the State Department said Thursday, as a US-imposed deadline looms next week.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin have given Israel until November 13 to improve the humanitarian situation in the war-besieged Gaza Strip or risk the withholding of some military assistance from the United States, Israel’s biggest supporter.
They made the demands in a letter before Tuesday’s election of President-elect Donald Trump, who has promised to give freer rein to Israel.
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said that Israel, after recently reopening the Erez crossing, has informed the United States that they “hope to open an additional new crossing at Kissufim” in “the next few days.”
“We have continued to press them, and we have seen them, including in the past few days since the election, take additional steps,” Miller told reporters.
He stopped short of saying how the United States would assess Israel’s compliance with the aid demands.
In the letter, Blinken and Austin had urged Israel to “consistently” let aid through four major crossings and to open a fifth crossing.
Kissufim, near a kibbutz across from southern Gaza that was attacked in the October 7, 2023 Hamas assault that sparked the war, has mostly been in disuse except by the military since Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005.
The letter called for a minimum of 350 trucks per day to be allowed into Gaza. Miller said 229 trucks entered on Tuesday.
Outgoing President Joe Biden has repeatedly pressed Israel to improve humanitarian aid and protect civilians, while mostly stopping short of using leverage such as cutting off weapons.
Miller said Blinken hoped to keep using the rest of his term to press for an end to the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.


France mulling new sanctions on Israeli settlers, minister says in West Bank

France mulling new sanctions on Israeli settlers, minister says in West Bank
Updated 07 November 2024
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France mulling new sanctions on Israeli settlers, minister says in West Bank

France mulling new sanctions on Israeli settlers, minister says in West Bank
  • “France has been a driving force to establish the first sanction regime at the European level,” Barrot said
  • Barrot renewed France’s commitment to a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

RAMALLAH: France is mulling new sanctions on those enabling the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, regarded as illegal under international law, Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on a visit to the territory on Thursday.
“France has been a driving force to establish the first sanction regime at the European level targeting individuals or entities, either actors or accomplices of settlement activities,” Barrot said after talks with Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas in Ramallah.
“This regime has been activated two times already and we’re working on a third batch of sanctions targeting these activities that again are illegal with respect to international law.”
Barrot renewed France’s commitment to a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and warned settlement activities “threaten the political perspective that can ensure durable peace for Israel and Palestine.”
Before meeting Abbas, Barrot visited the adjacent town of Al-Bireh, where Israeli settlers set fire to 20 cars on Monday, damaging a nearby building.
After speaking with residents and local officials at the scene, Barrot noted that the attack took place in a part of the West Bank where the Palestinians were supposed to enjoy both civil and security control under the Oslo Accords of the 1990s.
“These attacks from extremist and violent settlers are not only completely inexcusable, not only contrary to international law, but they weaken the perspective of a two-state solution,” Barrot said.
Ramallah and Al-Bireh governor Laila Ghannam expressed outrage that settler attacks were “taking place in full view and hearing of the entire silent international community.”
“Perhaps today, with the visit of the French foreign minister, there will be a spotlight here,” she told AFP.
Speaking in Jerusalem earlier Thursday, Barrot said he saw prospects for ending Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon after Donald Trump’s re-election, citing the Republican’s “wish to see the end of the Middle East’s endless wars” as well as recent “tactical successes” for Israel.


Moroccan population grows to 36.8 million in 2024

The Moroccan population grew by 2.98 million since the last census in 2014. (AFP)
The Moroccan population grew by 2.98 million since the last census in 2014. (AFP)
Updated 07 November 2024
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Moroccan population grows to 36.8 million in 2024

The Moroccan population grew by 2.98 million since the last census in 2014. (AFP)

RABAT: The Moroccan population grew to 36.82 million by September 2024, according to the preliminary results of a national census, the spokesman for the government said on Thursday.
Compared with the most recent census in 2014, the Moroccan population grew by 2.98 million or 8.8 percent, spokesman Mustapha Baitas told reporters.
The number of households grew to 9.27 million by September 2024, up 26.8 percent compared to 2014, while the number of foreigners living in the country increased to 148,152, up 71.8 percent, he said.


Israel escalates attacks on Lebanon as strikes hit near Beirut airport

A rescuer and a member of the Malaysian battalion of UNIFIL treat a soldier wounded in an Israeli airstrike near Sidon. (AFP)
A rescuer and a member of the Malaysian battalion of UNIFIL treat a soldier wounded in an Israeli airstrike near Sidon. (AFP)
Updated 07 November 2024
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Israel escalates attacks on Lebanon as strikes hit near Beirut airport

A rescuer and a member of the Malaysian battalion of UNIFIL treat a soldier wounded in an Israeli airstrike near Sidon. (AFP)
  • Drone strike near Sidon kills three and injures Lebanese soldiers and UN peacekeepers
  • Former Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s uncle and family members also killed

BEIRUT: At least 10 people were killed in Lebanon on Thursday in Israeli drone attacks on roads across the south, Mount Lebanon and Bekaa.

Former Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s uncle and his family members were also killed by strikes in southern Lebanon.

In Baalbek-Hermel, dozens of victims were laid to rest. They died trapped under the rubble of several flattened buildings, some adjacent to the Baalbek Temple.

In the afternoon, an Israeli strike targeted Tyre.

An Israeli drone hit a car on the Araya road in Mount Lebanon, killing the driver, a 30-year-old woman, making her Israel’s first female target.

Doaa Mattar’s family said that they lost contact with their daughter at the time of the raid.

A relative said that Mattar had taken her friend’s car to drive her family from Beirut to Bhamdoun.

Her body was taken to Hezbollah’s Al-Rassoul Al-Azam Hospital, while two injured passersby — a man and his grandson — were transported to the Sacre Coeur Hospital.

Hours later, another Israeli drone targeted a car on the Awali River road at the entrance to the city of Sidon, south of Beirut.

The strike killed three people inside the vehicle, injured three Lebanese soldiers at a nearby checkpoint and damaged several cars, including a passing UNIFIL convoy bus.

It resulted in five minor injuries among Malaysian UNIFIL soldiers and two civilian injuries.

Meanwhile, Beirut’s southern suburb experienced a violent night of airstrikes that continued until the early hours of Thursday morning, targeting Haret Hreik, Burj Al-Barajneh, Tahwitat Al-Ghadir and Ouzai.

One of the strikes came close to a runway at Beirut airport, causing damage to facilities.

However, airport operations continued, with Middle East Airlines switching to alternative runways for landing minutes after Israel issued evacuation warnings.

All planes heading for Beirut landed shortly before midnight ahead of the Israeli-imposed deadline.

The airstrikes on the southern suburb of Beirut caused extensive damage to residential buildings, shops, schools, social facilities and health centers.

A week of relative calm in Beirut’s southern suburb was shattered as warning sirens caused recently returned residents to flee north.

Many families were forced on to the streets, waiting in their vehicles at a safe distance from the targeted areas.

The Israeli military claimed to have conducted precision strikes against Hezbollah command centers and military infrastructure in the Lebanese capital, according to military spokesman Avichay Adraee.

Israel’s systematic destruction of southern Lebanese towns continued with renewed intensity. Israeli forces reportedly rigged and detonated entire neighborhoods in the border town of Mays Al-Jabal.

Israeli warplanes conducted strikes on the outskirts of Yahmar Al-Shaqif near the Litani River, hitting the town center and eastern areas. The predominantly Christian town of Rmeish, whose residents have steadfastly refused to leave, was also targeted.

In Jbaa, located in the Tuffah region, airstrikes caused significant damage. A separate strike on Bazouriye killed four members of Nasrallah’s extended family, including his uncle, cousins and their grandson.

Reports indicate that Israeli forces used internationally prohibited cluster bombs in their targeting of agricultural fields.

The scope of destruction has reached unprecedented levels in Nabatieh, where medical facilities, businesses, institutions, warehouses and residential buildings have been severely damaged.

Footage shared on social media revealed that entire neighborhoods had been turned into rubble.

Violent clashes erupted on Wednesday evening between Hezbollah fighters and Israeli forces near Rmeish and Yaroun, opposite the Dovev settlement.

Exchanges of fire were also reported near Aita Al-Shaab when Israeli forces attempted to advance into Lebanese territory.

The death and injury toll continues to mount, with the Bekaa region alone reporting 60 casualties, with dozens wounded.

Scenes of mass burials echoed those from Gaza. Among the dead are multiple generations of families, including the Abu Asbar family, who lost parents, children, grandchildren and in-laws during a single Israeli strike.

The attacks have also threatened Lebanon’s cultural heritage, with damage reported near the historic Baalbek Castle complex and the century-old Al-Manshieh building, known for its cultural artifacts.

The Palmyra Hotel, which has hosted decades of Baalbek festivals, also sustained damage.

Baalbek Mayor Mustafa Al-Shall said: “The enemy is targeting poor and residential neighborhoods, and it did not spare archaeological, heritage and historical sites. The number of martyrs in Baalbek is very high.”

One Israeli strike targeted soldier Raed Dandash, born in 2003, as he was driving his car in the town of Talia, in the Bekaa.

An official statement said: “Along with Raed, the strike killed his sister Nathalie and his brother Mohammed, while their mother was seriously injured.”

Airstrikes hit new areas in northern Bekaa, including the towns of Fakeha and Harfouch, killing one.

Lebanon’s officials were shocked by the attacks that targeted the vicinity of Baalbek Castle.

Culture Minister Mohammed Wissam Mortada sent an urgent appeal to UNESCO chief Audrey Azoulay through the head of Lebanon’s permanent mission to the organization, Mustafa Deeb, to “save the castle.”

Several MPs also sent a letter to Azoulay, calling on the international organization to “protect the common heritage of humanity.”

In the letter, MP Najat Saliba called for “the protection of historical sites in Lebanon, especially Baalbek, Tyre, Sidon and other valuable landmarks that are in grave danger due to the escalation of atrocities.”

She said: “These landmarks are priceless not only for our nation but for humanity. They are facing a growing danger with the escalation of the war. Their protection is a responsibility that needs to be assumed in order to preserve a part of human civilization that belongs to our common global and international heritage.”

One building destroyed by Israeli strikes bore an etching showing the year 1928. It was once frequented by French officers during France’s rule over the country.

The Israeli army announced that one of its soldiers “was killed in battles in southern Lebanon, while 60 Hezbollah members were killed during the past 24 hours.”

Hezbollah issued a statement calling on settlers in northern Israel to leave their settlements, warning that they had become become military targets.


Iran’s Pezeshkian says Tehran indifferent to US election result

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran's priority is to develop relations with Islamic and neighboring countries. (AFP/Fi
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran's priority is to develop relations with Islamic and neighboring countries. (AFP/Fi
Updated 07 November 2024
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Iran’s Pezeshkian says Tehran indifferent to US election result

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran's priority is to develop relations with Islamic and neighboring countries. (AFP/Fi
  • Pezeshkian says ‘it does not matter’ to Iran who won US election
  • Iran government spokesperson plays down importance of Trump

DUBAI: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the result of the US election did not matter to his country, state media reported on Thursday, amid heightened tensions with Washington over its support for Iran’s arch-enemy, Israel.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House following his election victory this week could mean tougher enforcement of US oil sanctions against Iran, which he initiated in 2018 after quitting a nuclear pact between Tehran and global powers.
The Biden administration has strongly supported Israel in its wars against the Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as Israeli actions against Iran itself.
Some analysts believe Trump will give Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a greater free hand in dealing with Iran.
“To us it does not matter at all who has won the American election, because our country and system relies on its inner strength and a great and honorable nation,” Pezeshkian said late on Wednesday, quoted by the state news agency IRNA.
It was his first comment on Trump’s election victory.
“We will not be close-minded in developing our relations with other countries (while) we have made it our priority to develop relations with Islamic and neighboring countries,” Pezeshkian said.
It was not immediately clear if Pezeshkian was also referring to the United States, with which Iran does not have diplomatic relations. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in all matters of state, has banned holding any direct talks with the United States.
An Iranian government spokesperson earlier played down the importance of the US election, while a Revolutionary Guards commander voiced readiness for confrontation.
The Iranian leaders’ main concern is the potential for Trump to empower Netanyahu to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, conduct assassinations and reimpose his “maximum pressure” policy through heightened sanctions on the country’s oil industry.
Some, however, suspect Trump will be cautious about the possibility of war.
In 2018, the then-Trump administration exited Iran’s 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers and reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to violate the pact’s nuclear limits.
International sanctions over Tehran’s nuclear program forced Tehran to reach the 2015 pact under which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for lifting the punitive measures.
Trump’s tough stance could force Ayatollah Khamenei to approve talks “whether direct or indirect” with the United States, two Iranian officials have told Reuters.
In September, Pezeshkian said Tehran was ready to end its nuclear standoff with the West, which accuses it of seeking capacity to develop nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.