Israel, Lebanon are prepping for a war neither wants, but many fear it’s becoming inevitable

Israel, Lebanon are prepping for a war neither wants, but many fear it’s becoming inevitable
An Israeli soldier carries a howitzer shell near the border with Lebanon on Jan. 11, 2024. (AP)
Short Url
Updated 01 February 2024
Follow

Israel, Lebanon are prepping for a war neither wants, but many fear it’s becoming inevitable

Israel, Lebanon are prepping for a war neither wants, but many fear it’s becoming inevitable
  • Such a war could be the most destructive either side has ever experienced
  • Israel and Hezbollah each have lessons from their last war, in 2006, a monthlong conflict that ended in a draw

BEIRUT: The prospect of a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia terrifies people on both sides of the border, but some see it as an inevitable fallout from Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza.
Such a war could be the most destructive either side has ever experienced.
Israel and Hezbollah each have lessons from their last war, in 2006, a monthlong conflict that ended in a draw. They’ve also had four months to prepare for another war, even as the United States tries to prevent a widening of the conflict.
Here’s a look at each side’s preparedness, how war might unfold and what’s being done to prevent it.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2006?
The 2006 war, six years after Israeli forces withdrew from south Lebanon, erupted after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers and killed several others in a cross-border raid.
Israel launched a full-scale air and ground offensive and imposed a blockade that aimed to free the hostages and destroy Hezbollah’s military capabilities — a mission that ultimately failed.
Israeli bombing leveled large swaths of south Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs. Hezbollah fired thousands of unguided rockets into northern Israel communities.
The conflict killed some 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.
A United Nations resolution ending the war called for withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon and a demilitarized zone on Lebanon’s side of the border.
Despite the deployment of UN peacekeepers, Hezbollah continues to operate in the border area, while Lebanon says Israel regularly violates its airspace and continues to occupy pockets of Lebanese land.
HOW PROBABLE IS WAR?
An Israel-Hezbollah war “would be a total disaster,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned last month, amid a flurry of shuttle diplomacy by the US and Europe.
Iran-backed Hezbollah seemed caught off-guard by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel, a regional ally. Since then, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged daily cross-border strikes, escalating gradually. Israel also carried out targeted killings of Hezbollah and Hamas figures in Lebanon.
More than 200 people, mostly Hezbollah fighters but also more than 20 civilians, have been killed on Lebanon’s side, and 18 on Israel’s.
Tens of thousands have been displaced on both sides. There are no immediate prospects for their return.
Israeli political and military leaders have warned Hezbollah that war is increasingly probable unless the militants withdraw from the border.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah hasn’t threatened to initiate war but warned of a fight “without limits” if Israel does. Hezbollah says it won’t agree to a ceasefire on the Israel-Lebanon border before there’s one in Gaza and has rebuffed a US proposal to move its forces several kilometers (miles) back from the border, according to Lebanese officials.
Despite the rhetoric, neither side appears to want war, said Andrea Tenenti, spokesperson for the UN peacekeeping mission in south Lebanon. However, “a miscalculation could potentially trigger a wider conflict that would be very difficult to control,” he said.
HOW PREPARED ARE THEY?
Both Hezbollah and the Israeli military have expanded capabilities since 2006 — yet both countries also are more fragile.
In Lebanon, four years of economic crisis have crippled public institutions, including its army and electrical grid, and eroded its health system. The country hosts more than 1 million Syrian refugees.
Lebanon adopted an emergency plan for a war scenario in late October. It projected the forcible displacement of 1 million Lebanese for 45 days.
About 87,000 Lebanese are displaced from the border area. While the government is relying on international organizations to fund the response, many groups working in Lebanon can’t maintain existing programs.
The UN refugee agency has provided supplies to collective shelters and given emergency cash to some 400 families in south Lebanon, spokesperson Lisa Abou Khaled said. The agency doesn’t have funds to support large numbers of displaced in the event of war, she said.
Aid group Doctors Without Borders said it has stockpiled some 10 tons of medical supplies and backup fuel for hospital generators in areas most likely to be affected by a widening conflict, in anticipation of a blockade.
Israel is feeling economic and social strain from the war in Gaza, which is expected to cost over $50 billion, or about 10 percent of national economic activity through the end of 2024, according to the Bank of Israel. Costs would rise sharply if there’s war with Lebanon.
“No one wants this war, or wishes it on anyone,” said Tal Beeri of the Alma Research and Education Center, a think tank focusing on northern Israel security. But he said he believes an armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is inevitable, arguing that diplomatic solutions appear unlikely and would only allow Hezbollah’s strategic threats to increase.
Israel has evacuated 60,000 residents from towns nearest the border, where there’s no warning time for rocket launches because of the proximity of Hezbollah squads.
In a war, there would be no point in additional evacuations since the militia’s rockets and missiles can reach all of Israel.
After the Oct. 7 attack, the war in Gaza had broad domestic support, even if there’s now a growing debate over its direction. Around half of Israelis would support war with Hezbollah as a last resort for restoring border security, according to recent polling by the think tank Israel Democracy Institute.
In Lebanon, some have criticized Hezbollah for exposing the country to another potentially devastating war. Others support the group’s limited entry into the conflict and believe Hezbollah’s arsenal will deter Israel from escalating.
HOW WOULD WAR PLAY OUT?
A full-scale war would likely spread to multiple fronts, escalating the involvement of Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen — and perhaps even draw in Iran itself.
It could also drag the US, Israel’s closest ally, deeper into the conflict. The US already has dispatched additional warships to the region.
Hezbollah has 150,000 to 200,000 rockets and missiles of various ranges, said Orna Mizrahi of the Israeli think tank Institute for National Security Studies. This arsenal is at least five times larger than that of Hamas and far more accurate, she said.
The militia’s guided projectiles could reach water, electricity or communications facilities, and densely populated residential areas.
In Lebanon, airstrikes would likely wreak havoc on infrastructure and potentially kill thousands. Netanyahu has threatened to “turn Beirut into Gaza,” where Israel’s air and ground incursion has caused widespread destruction and killed more than 26,000 people, according to Hamas-controlled Gaza’s Health Ministry.
Israel is far more protected, with several air defense systems, including the Iron Dome, which intercepts rockets with a roughly 90 percent success rate. But it can get overwhelmed if a mass barrage of rockets is fired.
Some 40 percent of Israel’s population live in newer homes with private safe rooms fortified with blast protection to withstand rocket attacks. Israel also has a network of bomb shelters, but a 2020 government report says about one-third of Israelis lack easy access to them.
Lebanon has no such network, and shelters would be of little use against massive “bunker buster” bombs Israel has dropped in Gaza.
Hezbollah has limited air defenses, while those of the Lebanese army are outdated and insufficient because of budget shortfalls, said Dina Arakji, with the UK-based risk consultancy firm Control Risks.
The Lebanese army has remained on the sidelines over the past four months. In 2006, it entered fighting in a limited capacity, but it’s unclear how it would react in the event of a new Israel-Hezbollah war.


Israel hostages forum demands probe in secrets leak case

Israel hostages forum demands probe in secrets leak case
Updated 11 sec ago
Follow

Israel hostages forum demands probe in secrets leak case

Israel hostages forum demands probe in secrets leak case
  • “The (hostage) families demand an investigation against all those suspected of sabotage and undermining state security,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement

JERUSALEM: A Gaza hostages campaign group called Monday for an investigation into the alleged leak of confidential documents by an ex-aide to Israel’s premier, which may have undermined efforts to secure their release.
A court announced Sunday that Eliezer Feldstein, a former aide to Benjamin Netanyahu, had been detained along with three others for allegedly leaking documents to foreign media.
The case has prompted the opposition to question whether Netanyahu was involved in the leak — an allegation denied by his office.
“The (hostage) families demand an investigation against all those suspected of sabotage and undermining state security,” the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement.
“Such actions, especially during wartime, endanger the hostages, jeopardize their chances of return and abandon them to the risk of being killed by Hamas terrorists.”
The forum represents most of the families of the 97 hostages still held in Gaza after they were seized in the unprecedented October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel that sparked the war.
The Israeli military says 34 of them are dead.
“The suspicions suggest that individuals associated with the prime minister acted to carry out one of the greatest frauds in the country’s history,” the forum said.
“This is a moral low point like no other. It is a severe blow to the remaining trust between the government and its citizens.”
Critics have long accused Netanyahu of stalling in truce negotiations and prolonging the war to appease his far-right coalition partners.
Israel’s domestic security agency Shin Bet and the army launched an investigation into the breach in September after two newspapers, British weekly The Jewish Chronicle and Germany’s Bild tabloid, published articles based on the classified military documents.
One article claimed a document had been uncovered showing that then Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar — later killed by Israel — and the hostages in Gaza would be smuggled into Egypt through the Philadelphi corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border.
The other was based on what was said to be an internal Hamas leadership memo on Sinwar’s strategy to hamper talks toward the liberation of hostages.
The Israeli court said the release of the documents ran the risk of causing “severe harm to state security.”
“As a result, the ability of security bodies to achieve the objective of releasing the hostages, as part of the war goals, could have been compromised,” it added.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas militants attacked southern Israel, resulting in the deaths of 1,206 people on Israeli soil, mostly civilians, according to AFP’s count based on official Israeli data, including hostages who died or were killed in captivity in Gaza.
Israel’s retaliatory military offensive in Gaza has so far killed at least 43,341 people, a majority of them civilians, according to the territory’s health ministry. The UN considers these figures as reliable.
Meanwhile, late on Monday Netanyahu asked the attorney general to begin investigating other alleged leaks from cabinet meetings during the war.
“Since the beginning of the war, we have witnessed an incessant flood of serious leaks and revelations of state secrets,” he said in a letter to the attorney general, which was posted on his Telegram channel.
“Therefore, I am appealing to you to immediately order the investigation of the leaks in general.”


UNRWA ban in Gaza ‘will not make Israel safer’: WHO

UNRWA ban in Gaza ‘will not make Israel safer’: WHO
Updated 05 November 2024
Follow

UNRWA ban in Gaza ‘will not make Israel safer’: WHO

UNRWA ban in Gaza ‘will not make Israel safer’: WHO
  • “This ban will not make Israel safer. It will only deepen the suffering of the people of Gaza and increase the risk of disease outbreaks,” Tedros says

GENEVA: The chief of the World Health Organization on Monday denounced Israel’s decision to cut ties with the UN agency supporting Palestinian refugees, saying it would not make the country safer while increasing civilian suffering in Gaza.
“Let me be clear: There is simply no alternative to UNRWA,” the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a video posted on X.
“This ban will not make Israel safer. It will only deepen the suffering of the people of Gaza and increase the risk of disease outbreaks,” Tedros added.
His comments came after Israel said it had formally notified the UN of its decision to sever ties with UNRWA, after Israeli lawmakers backed the move last week.
The suspension of the agency, which coordinates nearly all aid in war-ravaged Gaza, sparked global condemnation including from key Israeli backer the United States.
The move is expected to come into force in late January, with the UN Security Council warning it would have severe consequences for millions of Palestinians.
Israel has accused a dozen UNRWA employees of taking part in the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas, the deadliest in Israeli history.
A series of probes found some “neutrality related issues” at UNRWA but said Israel had not provided evidence for its chief allegations.
The agency, which employs 13,000 people in Gaza, fired nine employees after an internal probe found that they “may have been involved in the armed attacks of 7 October.”
UNRWA, which was established in 1949 after the first Arab-Israeli conflict following Israel’s creation a year earlier, provides assistance to nearly six million Palestinian refugees across Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria.
“Every day, it provides thousands of medical consultations and vaccinated hundreds of children,” Tedros said, adding that many humanitarian partners rely on UNRWA’s logistical networks to get supplies into Gaza.
He said that the UNRWA staff his organization had worked with were “dedicated health and humanitarian professionals who work tirelessly for their communities under unimaginable circumstances.”
Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of official Israeli figures.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed 43,374 people in Gaza, most of them civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry, which the United Nations considers to be reliable.


GCC’s chief urges regional collective action at counter-terrorism conference in Kuwait

GCC’s chief urges regional collective action at counter-terrorism conference in Kuwait
Updated 04 November 2024
Follow

GCC’s chief urges regional collective action at counter-terrorism conference in Kuwait

GCC’s chief urges regional collective action at counter-terrorism conference in Kuwait
  • Meeting gathers ministers, UN agency representatives, international organizations

KUWAIT CITY: Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Jasem Al-Budaiwi addressed a high-level conference on counter-terrorism and border security on Monday.

The conference, which is being held in Kuwait and ends on Tuesday, has been organized by Kuwait in partnership with Tajikistan and the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism.

It gathered ministers, UN agency representatives, and international and regional organizations to help bolster international counter-terrorism efforts.

Al-Budaiwi said: “This important regional conference focuses on border security and combating terrorism, which are vital issues requiring collective action.”

Al-Budaiwi spoke of the GCC’s achievements in security collaboration, including information-sharing and laws targeting terrorism financing.

He added: “The GCC countries have built a common security system through joint agreements, enhancing cooperation in border protection and addressing security threats.”

He stressed the region’s proactive approach in utilizing technology and training personnel to safeguard borders against transnational threats like arms and human trafficking.


Fate of elderly residents uncertain after Israel destroys homes in Lebanese border village

Fate of elderly residents uncertain after Israel destroys homes in Lebanese border village
Updated 04 November 2024
Follow

Fate of elderly residents uncertain after Israel destroys homes in Lebanese border village

Fate of elderly residents uncertain after Israel destroys homes in Lebanese border village
  • Prime minister calls on international community to address Israeli aggression against Lebanon and protect nation’s heritage and cultural sites
  • Three people were killed in a raid on a residence in the town of Arabsalim in Iqlim Al-Tuffah

BEIRUT: Dozens of houses and other buildings in the Lebanese border village of Mays Al-Jabal have been destroyed during Israeli incursions over the past 48 hours, residents said. The fate of several elderly villagers, including a woman, who refused to leave their homes before the attacks remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, on Monday called on the international community to address Israel’s “continued aggression against Lebanon and its crimes of killing and destruction.”

His appeal came during meetings with ambassadors from the permanent members of the UN Security Council — the US, the UK, France, Russia and China — and Sandra de Waal, the EU’s envoy to Lebanon.

The death toll in the country had risen to 2,968 by Sunday evening, officials said, including dozens of children, women and the elderly people who died in the rubble of their homes. The number of wounded has risen to 13,319. Health Minister Firas Abiad said eight hospitals in the south of the country, the Bekaa and Beirut’s southern suburbs are out of service.

The people of Mays Al-Jabal appealed to the International Committee of the Red Cross for help to search for survivors who might be trapped under the rubble following the Israeli attacks. Some of the missing were said to be in their 80s and 90s and had received medical and food aid in recent months from the Red Cross, in coordination with UN Interim Force in Lebanon and the Lebanese army.

Explosions during the attacks in Mays Al-Jabal caused tremors similar to those in the towns of Kfarkela, Blida, Mhaibib, Khiam, Ayta Al-Shaab and Ramyah over the past two weeks. Israeli forces were reportedly spotted on the move in the vicinity of Mays Al-Jabal’s government hospital on Monday in preparation for a fresh assault.

Activists on social media shared satellite images of the devastation caused by the Israeli attacks on border villages, from which the inhabitants have fled.

Israeli airstrikes hit the villages of Tyre and Bint Jbeil but did not stop there. A Hezbollah-affiliated Islamic Health Authority center in the town of Bazouriyeh was targeted, killing two paramedics and wounding several people.

Bint Jbeil, Maroun Al-Ras, Yaroun and Aitaroun have also come under sporadic artillery fire, though they were quiet on Monday. However, three people were killed in a raid on a residence in the town of Arabsalim in Iqlim Al-Tuffah region, and an Israeli airstrike on Machghara in Western Bekaa killed four people and left several injured.

The Israeli army said the air force had killed Abu Ali Rida, a Hezbollah leader in the southern Baraachit area said to be responsible for planning and carrying out rocket and anti-tank attacks, and overseeing the activities of Hezbollah operatives in the area.

Hezbollah said it “struck a gathering of soldiers to the east of Maroun Al-Ras, using a suicide drone that reached its intended target.” The group also said Israeli forces “retreated from the Khiam region on Sunday, as well as from Sarda, Al-Amra, Talat Al-Hamames and the vicinity of Al-Wazzani.”

It added that its forces had attacked the Nahariya settlement and the Meron air surveillance base, and launched a suicide-drone assault targeting Israeli forces in the Yiftah settlement.

On Sunday night, Hezbollah said it launched an “air attack with a squadron of suicide drones on a gathering of Israeli forces in the Manara settlement,” and targeted “the settlements of Elite Hashahar, Sha'al, Hatzor, Dalton and Yesud HaMa’ala with rocket barrages.”

Sirens sounded in Acre and Nahariya on Monday. Avichay Adraee, a spokesperson for the Israeli army, said: “Within 30 minutes this morning, the air force successfully intercepted four drones en route to Israel. Some of these drones originated from Lebanon, while others came from the east. Two of the drones were intercepted before entering the country’s airspace.”

According to Israeli news reports, “a drone was intercepted in the Rekhs Ramim area in Upper Galilee without activating the sirens.” And an Israeli attack on a residence in the Baalbek-Hermel area, close to the Douris municipality, reportedly caused significant damage.

During his meeting with the international envoys, Mikati said Israel had “turned against all the suggested solutions and continues its war crimes in various Lebanese regions, to the extent of targeting archaeological sites. This, in itself, is an additional crime against humanity and must be confronted and stopped.”

He highlighted the “escalation of Israeli hostilities against Lebanon and the atrocities committed, including killings and destruction, which should be brought to the attention of the international community, which remains silent on these events.”

Nations that traditionally “carry the banner of humanity and human rights should exert maximum pressure on Israel to stop its aggression,” Mikati added.

He said the Lebanese government has “welcomed all calls advocating for a ceasefire but Israel has turned against all proposed solutions. We renew our demand to put pressure on Israel to cease its aggression.”

The government previously agreed to “enhance the presence of the army and recruit military personnel,” he continued, and during an upcoming parliamentary session “we will discuss certain executive measures to support recruiting 1,500 members for the army.”

Mikati reiterated the need for the international community to put pressure on Israel to avoid targeting civilians, medical teams and ambulance crews, and handed the envoys “a letter in which he stressed that the ongoing Israeli aggression, especially the attacks on places such as Baalbek and Tyre, have led to the displacement of entire villages and threatened priceless heritage and cultural sites.”

He also presented them with a report on the damage to Lebanon’s health sector caused by the Israeli attacks, and called for “an immediate ceasefire to stop the senseless violence and protect our country’s cultural heritage.”

Mikati urged the Security Council “to take swift and decisive action to protect the historical treasures that are not only part of our national identity but also hold significance as global historical landmarks.”

He added: “We must work together to ensure the preservation of these sites for future generations.”


Yemen’s government shuts down unlicensed exchange firms to stop riyal devaluation

Yemen’s government shuts down unlicensed exchange firms to stop riyal devaluation
Updated 04 November 2024
Follow

Yemen’s government shuts down unlicensed exchange firms to stop riyal devaluation

Yemen’s government shuts down unlicensed exchange firms to stop riyal devaluation
  • Local money traders and media said that the riyal was trading at 2050 against the dollar
  • Yemeni government closed dozens of exchange firms in Aden, Yemen’s interim capital, Hadramout, Shabwa, and Mahra that lack or have expired licenses

AL-MUKALLA: The Yemeni riyal stabilized on Monday near its all-time low of 2050 against the dollar in government-controlled areas, as the Yemeni government launched a campaign targeting unlicensed exchange firms.

Local money traders and media said that the riyal was trading at 2050 against the dollar, maintaining the same record low, days after breaking the historic low of 2000 against the dollar. In early 2015, the Yemeni riyal was worth 215 per dollar.

This comes as the Yemeni government closed dozens of exchange firms in Aden, Yemen’s interim capital, Hadramout, Shabwa, and Mahra that lack or have expired licenses.

Local officials, escorted by armed policemen, were seen in the streets of Aden, Al-Mukalla in Hadramout, Attaq in Shabwa, and Al-Ghaydah in Mahra province, inspecting exchange firms and shops’ licenses and closing the doors of unlicensed firms to slow the devaluation of the Yemeni riyal.

The Yemeni government has long accused local money traders of engaging in currency speculation, which resulted in the Yemeni riyal’s rapid devaluation.

Another reason for the devaluation, according to the Yemeni government, is the Houthis’ attacks on oil terminals in Hadramout and Shabwa in late 2022, which resulted in a complete halt to oil exports.

Saleh Fadaeq, the head of the central bank branch in Shabwa, said on Monday that the campaign against unauthorized exchange firms would continue to stop the Yemeni riyal’s devaluation, end currency speculation, and combat money laundering, according to the official news agency SABA.

The Presidential Leadership Council and the Yemeni government have recently requested financial assistance from international donors to help stabilize the Yemeni riyal, pay employees, and fund critical projects.

Yemenis across the political and social spectrum have warned of a major humanitarian crisis in Yemen, as the rapid devaluation of the riyal has driven up the prices of food, fuel, and other essential commodities, pushing people deeper into poverty.

Ismael Al-Sharabi wrote on Facebook that the riyal’s depreciation is causing “a humanitarian crisis,” with the prices for basic food items reaching unprecedented highs. He urged the Yemeni government to quickly bring under control the riyal’s fall.

“A tomato now costs 1,000 riyals. This is a humanitarian disaster and a historical curse that has befallen these people, who are now fighting death to survive, swallowing all burdens, high prices, and extreme poverty,” Al-Sharabi said.

High prices caused by the riyal’s devaluation have sparked violent protests in Aden and Al-Mukalla, as well as other Yemeni cities under government control, over the last several years.

Mustafa Nasr, director of the Studies and Economic Media Center, said the government’s campaign against unlicensed exchange firms did not lead to the riyal’s recovery as it only targeted small firms and not the large exchange firms that control the market, calling for stricter government measures to prevent the riyal’s fall.

“The exchange sector has become disorganized, bloated, and has sufficient liquidity to influence the exchange market,” Nasr told Arab News.

In its most recent report on the Yemeni economy, released late last month, the World Bank depicted a bleak economy in 2025, saying that Yemen’s gross domestic product is expected to fall by 1 percent in 2024, compared to a 2 percent drop last year.

Sixty percent of Yemenis have insufficient access to food due to an unprecedented level of insecurity brought about by the war, and the Houthis’ attacks on oil terminals slashed 42 percent of the government’s revenues, making it difficult for it to provide public services and devaluing the Yemeni riyal, according to the World Bank.