Global M&A market drops 15% in 2023 to $3.2tn

Dealmakers grappled with several obstacles, including high interest rates, increased regulatory scrutiny, and mixed macroeconomic signals, forcing them to be more selective. Reuters/File
Dealmakers grappled with several obstacles, including high interest rates, increased regulatory scrutiny, and mixed macroeconomic signals, forcing them to be more selective. Reuters/File
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Updated 30 January 2024
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Global M&A market drops 15% in 2023 to $3.2tn

Global M&A market drops 15% in 2023 to $3.2tn
  • Overall strategic deal multiples hit a 15-year low, says a report

RIYADH: The global merger and acquisition market witnessed a 15 percent drop year-on-year to $3.2 trillion in 2023, marking its lowest level in a decade, according to recent findings.

Dealmakers grappled with several obstacles, including high interest rates, increased regulatory scrutiny, and mixed macroeconomic signals, forcing them to be more selective in their pursuit of deals, Bain & Co.’s annual report stated. 

It highlighted that the gap between valuations was one of the most significant challenges. Additionally, overall strategic deal multiples hit a 15-year low at 10.1 times.

“The drop in deal multiples led to a wait-and-see atmosphere in 2023, with many sellers hesitant to come to the table at a market bottom,” said Les Baird, partner and head of Bain & Co.’s global M&A and divestitures practice.

A decline in tech M&A played a pivotal role with tech deal values dropping by approximately 45 percent.

Furthermore, median valuations plummeted from 25 times in 2021 to 13 times in 2023. However, the energy and healthcare sectors had a strong year, driven by sector-specific dynamics and big-ticket deals.

The research document further highlighted that mega deals were mostly made in the second half of 2023, signaling a potential shift in the outlook of dealmakers. 

Despite the decline in deal counts, companies maintained high levels of proactive deal screening and due diligence.

“History shows that downturns and times of disruption always produce newer, stronger competitors that used the turbulence to make market gains,” said Suzanne Kumar, Bain & Co.’s global practice vice president for M&A and divestitures.

The report also highlights an evolving regulatory climate, with at least $361 billion in announced deals facing challenges from regulators worldwide in the past two years. 

The average time to reach a regulatory outcome for scrutinized deals is now 12 months, adding complexity to deal planning, it stated.

Looking ahead, the findings pinpoint that generative artificial intelligence is expected to play a more significant role in dealmaking. 

In a survey of more than 300 M&A practitioners, Bain & Co. reports that only 16 percent currently use generative AI for deal processes, 80 percent anticipate adopting it within the next three years. 

Early users have found the technology to be efficient in generating ideas and reviewing data in the diligence phase, with 85 percent reporting that it met or exceeded their expectations. 

However, practitioners also recognized challenges related to data accuracy, privacy, and cybersecurity.

Additionally, the report delves into industries, highlighting that healthcare and life sciences are expected to remain active, driven by high levels of cash reserves and executive confidence. 

Energy and natural resources companies will take a more targeted approach to their energy transition acquisitions.

The space industry also closed multibillion-dollar deals in 2023 and is anticipated to continue to grow.


Pakistan’s finance minister leaves for US to take part in IMF, World Bank meetings

Pakistan’s finance minister leaves for US to take part in IMF, World Bank meetings
Updated 21 October 2024
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Pakistan’s finance minister leaves for US to take part in IMF, World Bank meetings

Pakistan’s finance minister leaves for US to take part in IMF, World Bank meetings
  • Muhammad Aurangzeb to meet counterparts from China, UK, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Turkiye
  • He will also address investment forums to share Pakistan’s economic outlook, says state media 

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has departed for Washington to take part in the annual International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank meetings starting today, Monday, state-run media reported, where he is also expected to hold bilateral meetings with counterparts from China, Saudi Arabia, UAE and other countries. 

Global finance chiefs will gather in Washington this week amid intense uncertainty over wars in the Middle East and Europe, a flagging Chinese economy and worries that a US presidential election could ignite new trade battles and erode multilateral cooperation. 

The IMF and World Bank annual meetings are scheduled to draw more than 10,000 people from finance ministries, central banks and civil society groups to discuss efforts to boost patchy global growth, deal with debt distress and finance green energy transition.

“Federal Minister of Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, here on Sunday departed for the United States to participate in the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB),” state broadcaster Radio Pakistan said. 

It said that the minister will meet high-ranking IMF and World Bank officials during his trip. 

“He will also meet with his counterparts from China, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkiye,” the state broadcaster said. 

Aurangzeb will engage with top officials from the US State and Treasury Departments, global credit rating agencies and commercial banks, particularly investment banks from the Middle East, the state media said. 

“The Minister will address investment forums and seminars, sharing Pakistan’s economic outlook, and visit renowned US think tanks,” Radio Pakistan said. “He will also interact with selected international and American media representatives.”

Pakistan has frequently turned to the IMF for multi-billion loan programs in the past to sustain its fragile $350 billion economy. The South Asian country in July agreed to a $7 billion IMF deal, its 24th payout from the global lender since 1958, in exchange for unpopular reforms including cutting back on power subsidies and widening its chronically low tax base.

Last year it came to the brink of default as the economy took a plunge amid political chaos following catastrophic 2022 monsoon floods as well as a global economic downturn.


El-Sisi says ‘pressure’ on Egyptians could call for IMF deal review

El-Sisi says ‘pressure’ on Egyptians could call for IMF deal review
Updated 21 October 2024
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El-Sisi says ‘pressure’ on Egyptians could call for IMF deal review

El-Sisi says ‘pressure’ on Egyptians could call for IMF deal review

CAIRO: Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has warned that regional challenges could lead to “unbearable” economic pressure on the population and a review of internationally-demanded economic reforms.

“If these challenges will make us put unbearable pressure on public opinion, then the situation must be reviewed with the IMF,” El-Sisi said at the Global Congress on Population, Health and Human Development in Cairo, as Egyptians brace for a new wave of inflation following fuel price hikes.

Egypt has been embroiled in economic crisis since 2022. Dominated by military-linked enterprises and for years focused on expensive infrastructure mega-projects, the economy is almost entirely reliant on imports.

Foreign debt has ballooned, the currency has undergone several devaluations, with a resultant rise in inflation.

The International Monetary Fund this year approved a $5 billion top-up to an agreed $3 billion loan for the Arab world’s most populous nation.

In turn, the Washington-based lender demanded wide-ranging reforms including shifting to a more flexible exchange rate, plans to boost the role of the private sector in the economy, as well as tackling high inflation and government debt, the IMF said.

In what he said was a “message to us and to the relevant international institutions, the IMF and the World Bank,” El-Sisi warned of persistent “challenges.”

His comments came two days after authorities announced new fuel hikes by up to 17 percent — the third increase this year as the government moves to lift fuel subsidies by the end of 2025.

The increases on Friday included hikes to the price of diesel and mazut, used in mass transport and industry. Public transport fares in the capital Cairo quickly went up in response.
Inflation peaked at nearly 40 percent last year, with the most recent figures in September at 26 percent.

Cairo has received three tranches of its IMF package. The IMF said earlier this month its next review mission, initially set for September, “is planned to take place in the coming months.”

El-Sisi said Egypt is “undertaking this (reform) program in very difficult regional and global circumstances” which “must be taken into account.”

Alongside the economic crisis, Egypt has also been caught up in regional tensions, with wars raging in neighboring Gaza and Sudan.

“We have lost $6-7 billion only in the past seven or eight or 10 months,” El-Sisi said Sunday, referring to Suez Canal revenues impacted by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The Houthis have attacked shipping around the Red Sea in what they say is support for Palestinians in Gaza.


Aramco CEO calls for ‘Transition Plan 2.0’ with focus on Asia, Global South

Aramco CEO calls for ‘Transition Plan 2.0’ with focus on Asia, Global South
Updated 37 min 11 sec ago
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Aramco CEO calls for ‘Transition Plan 2.0’ with focus on Asia, Global South

Aramco CEO calls for ‘Transition Plan 2.0’ with focus on Asia, Global South

RIYADH: Saudi Aramco has called for a new energy transition strategy that addresses the needs of Asia and the Global South, amid concerns over the current plan’s uneven progress.  

Speaking at the Singapore International Energy Week, Aramco President and CEO Amin H. Nasser emphasized the need for a “Transition Plan 2.0,” placing Asia at the forefront of global energy efforts. 

“This may be Asia’s century. But Asia’s voice and priorities, like those of the broader Global South, are hard to see in current transition planning, and the whole world is feeling the consequences,” said Nasser. 

He stressed that the current transition is "far slower, far less equitable, and far more complicated than many expected.”  

Nasser proposed a more flexible approach to emissions reduction, one that is not bound by ideology. “This ideology-free approach simply prioritizes systematic emissions reduction where the impact is greater, at an acceptable cost, within reasonable timeframes, and whatever the source or technology,” he said.  

He described the plan as “multi-source, multi-speed, and multi-dimensional,” aiming to meet the security, affordability, and sustainability needs of all countries. 

Addressing the financial challenges of the energy transition, Nasser pointed out the staggering cost estimates. “Transition will be expensive for everyone, with estimates of between $100 and $200 trillion required globally by 2050.”  

For developing countries, he noted, almost $6 trillion may be required each year. Aramco's CEO also highlighted the disparity in capital costs, stating that “the cost of capital is more than twice as high in developing countries where the need is greater.” 

Nasser also addressed the future of oil demand, dismissing predictions of a steep decline. “Even when the growth in global oil demand stops at some point, no abrupt drop is anticipated. More than 100 million barrels per day would realistically still be required by 2050,” he said, countering claims that oil demand could fall to just 25 million barrels per day by then.  

A shortfall of 75 million barrels, he warned, would be “devastating” for global energy security and affordability. 

Despite significant investments in the global energy transition, Nasser pointed out that oil demand is at an “all-time high,” while gas demand has surged nearly 70 percent since 2000.  

“So, rather than an energy transition, we are really talking about energy addition, where just the growth is mostly met by alternatives, instead of replacing conventional energy in any meaningful way,” he said. 

Nasser criticized the current transition strategy for failing to deliver on its promises. “One, energy that is affordable — electricity prices in Europe rose as much as three to five-fold in many countries over the past two decades, despite the shift to renewables,” he explained.  

Aramco's CEO also noted that progress in renewable energy remains sluggish, with wind and solar supplying less than 4 percent of the world’s energy. 

“As energy consumers around the world are served an increasingly unrealistic and expensive transition, the less they like the taste. They hunger for something that connects their passion for the net-zero future we all want, with a reality we can all afford, and a relentless focus on what works,” he concluded. 


Oil Updates – prices regain ground after 7% weekly drop

Oil Updates – prices regain ground after 7% weekly drop
Updated 21 October 2024
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Oil Updates – prices regain ground after 7% weekly drop

Oil Updates – prices regain ground after 7% weekly drop

BEIJING: Oil prices edged up in Asian trading on Monday, following a more than 7 percent drop last week on worries about demand in China, the world’s top oil importer, and an easing of concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.37 percent, to $73.33 a barrel by 9:25 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 31 cents, or 0.45 percent to $69.53 a barrel.

The gains represented less than 5 percent of the dollar value both contracts lost last week. Brent had settled down more than 7 percent lower last week, while WTI lost around 8 percent.

That marked the contracts’ biggest weekly declines since Sept. 2, on slowing economic growth in China and falling risk premiums in the Middle East.

Saudi Aramco’s CEO told an energy conference in Singapore on Monday that he is still “fairly bullish” on China’s oil demand in light of stepped up policy support aimed at boosting growth, and because of rising demand for jet fuel and liquid-to-chemicals.

China on Monday morning cut benchmark lending rates as anticipated, part of a broader package of stimulus measures to revive the economy.

Data on Friday had shown that China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, fueling growing concerns about oil demand.

US President Joe Biden said on Friday there was an opportunity to “deal with Israel and Iran in a way that ends the conflict for a while.”

The conflict in the Middle East however intensified over the weekend as Israel on Sunday said it was preparing to attack sites in the Lebanese capital of Beirut linked to Hezbollah’s financial operations.

On the supply side, last week, US energy firms cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the fourth time in five weeks, according to a closely watched report by energy services firm Baker Hughes BKR.O on Friday. The rig count dropped by one to 585. 


Riyadh sees 19% surge in Grade A office space rents in H1: JLL

Riyadh sees 19% surge in Grade A office space rents in H1: JLL
Updated 20 October 2024
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Riyadh sees 19% surge in Grade A office space rents in H1: JLL

Riyadh sees 19% surge in Grade A office space rents in H1: JLL

RIYADH: Rents for Grade A office spaces in Riyadh reached SR2,090 ($556.43) per sq. meter annually in the first half of this year, a 19 percent increase from the same period in 2023. 

According to JLL, Riyadh added approximately 52,000 sq. meters of office space, bringing the total market supply to 5.2 million sq. meters. Grade A office spaces command a premium due to their prime location, infrastructure, and modern amenities. 

The rise in demand for high-quality office space in Riyadh aligns with Saudi Arabia’s ambition to position the capital as a global business and investment hub. 

“In the capital, we continue to see significant levels of demand from both government-related entities and the private sector, although the former still accounts for the majority of demand. From the private sector, we note that the average occupier space requirements have increased considerably over the course of the year,” stated JLL.  

It added: “Both of these cohorts are increasingly looking to occupy office developments in the north of Riyadh for a number of reasons, including but not limited to ease of access and egress the emergence of new, high-quality office options.”  

The real estate agency further noted that no new office supply had been added in Jeddah during the first half of this year, keeping the total stock stable at 1.21 million sq. meters. 

The report projected that approximately 249,000 sq. meters and 48,000 sq. meters of gross leasable area are expected to be delivered in Riyadh and Jeddah, respectively, in the second half of this year. 

“Despite considerable levels of new supply scheduled to be delivered over the course of the year, looking ahead, we expect that the trajectory of the market in the second half of the year will remain on a similar course to that seen in the first half of the year,” said JLL.  

The agency added that strong pre-leasing levels for upcoming institutional-quality developments, combined with a significant level of pent-up demand in the market — particularly from incumbents looking to upgrade their office space — will continue to underpin rental and occupancy growth in Riyadh and Jeddah. 

Earlier this month, another analysis by Knight Frank revealed that residential transaction values in Saudi Arabia surged 25 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2024, totaling SR35.4 billion. 

The Knight Frank report added that the volume of deals also increased by 12 percent, reaching 45,924 agreements, highlighting strong demand in the Kingdom’s housing market. 

This trend follows a continued increase in demand over the last several quarters as Saudi Arabia experiences growth in local and expatriate populations amid efforts to attract investment and advance diversification projects. 

Residential sector outlook 

According to the report, Riyadh witnessed the delivery of 16,200 units in the first half of this year, bringing the overall stock to 1.46 million units. 

Some 11,300 residential dwellings were delivered in Jeddah during the first six months, increasing the total to 891,000. 

“The residential sector in Riyadh and Jeddah recorded a robust start to the year, with a substantial increase in the number of delivered residential units. The surge in demand for residential units, driven by the younger generation’s preference for independent living arrangements, has prompted an innovation wave in housing design,” said JLL.  

The report highlighted that sale prices experienced a 10 percent year on year increase in June in Riyadh, while average rents witnessed an annual increase of 9 percent. 

In Jeddah, sale prices rose by 5 percent in the first half of this year compared to the same period in 2023, while average rents increased by 4 percent. 

The analysis added that the residential real estate sector in Saudi Arabia is also facing challenges, including rising land costs — particularly in Riyadh — volatile construction expenses influenced by global economic headwinds, capacity constraints in the local market, increasing shipping charges, and high financing costs. 

“As a result, we are seeing that in parts of the market, the scheduled delivery schedules are slipping, which in turn is impacting potential transactional activity as owner-occupiers and investors approach a wait-and-see approach,” said JLL.  

JLL added that both Riyadh and Jeddah will see the delivery of 16,000 residential units in the second half of this year. 

Retail market 

JLL stated that no major malls were completed in Riyadh during the first half of this year, with the total organized retail stock remaining stable at 3.48 million sq. meters. 

Jeddah, however, witnessed the completion of several zones at Souq 7, adding approximately 106,000 sq. meters of retail space and bringing the total supply to 2.16 million sq. meters. 

In the remaining part of the year, the capital and Jeddah are anticipated to receive an additional 77,000 sq. meters and 112,000 sq. meters of retail gross leasable area. 

“Our outlook for the retail sector in Saudi Arabia remains positive in the long-term, with the sector being supported by a broadening range of demand drivers, increasing retail expenditure, and the growth in the number of tourists,” said JLL.  

It added: “Riyadh, in particular, is striving to become a top global tourist destination, driving a greater emphasis on providing high-quality retail offerings. Shopping centers in the Kingdom are adapting to socio-economic changes by incorporating essential features such as cinemas, F&B (food and beverage) establishments, and entertainment facilities.”  

Hospitality sector 

JLL noted that Saudi Arabia’s hospitality sector demonstrated strong performance in the first half of this year, driven by the increased number and variety of entertainment facilities, the promotion of sports, and the introduction of new destination drivers. 

According to the report, the average occupancy rate among hotels in Saudi Arabia increased by one percentage point year-on-year in the first half of 2024, while the average daily rate increased by 7 percent, and revenue per available room also rose by 8 percent during the same period. 

“The outlook for the hospitality sector is positive, with the tourism industry set to be a major contributor to growth and diversification efforts,” said JLL.  

It concluded: “Planned investments of $800 billion over the next 10 years, along with a robust pipeline of flagship events such as the Asian Cup 2027, Formula 1 races, Asian Winter Games 2029, Expo 2030, and FIFA World Cup 2034, are expected to drive the sector’s long-term fundamentals.”