Ex-PM Sharif’s party eyes ‘clear majority’ in upcoming Pakistan elections

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party, led by three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, anticipates it would win a “clear majority” in the upcoming general election, a senior leader of the party said this week, despite the surging popularity of its chief rival, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.
Sharif, 74, was born into a wealthy, industrialist family in Pakistan’s eastern city of Lahore. In the 1980s, Sharif was a protégé of Pakistan’s third military dictator, General (retired) Zia-ul-Haq, and became the dominant politician in Pakistan’s most populous and prosperous province, Punjab. The province is allocated the highest number of seats, meaning whichever party wins the most seats in Punjab is better placed to form its government in the center as well.
The party has won general elections in Pakistan thrice, in 1990, 1997 and 2013, but also has a troubled history with the country’s powerful military.
Sharif’s last three terms as prime minister in 1990-93, 1997-99, and 2013-17 ended before he could complete his tenures as he was removed by a military-backed president in 1993, ousted in a military coup in 1999, and disqualified by the Supreme Court in 2017.
In 2013, the PML-N bagged 166 seats in the general elections that year to form its government at the center. It lost the 2018 elections to the PTI, led by Sharif’s rival and cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, after bagging only 82 seats. Sharif and his daughter, Maryam Nawaz, were jailed on graft allegations in 2018, less than two weeks before polls were held. The party claims the elections were heavily rigged.
Sharif went abroad in 2019 after a court allowed him to seek medical treatment and returned in October 2023, marking the end of four years of a self-imposed exile to lead his party in the elections. The PML-N believes Sharif will once again lead the party to victory.
“We are anticipating securing a clear majority in the upcoming elections, forming the government at both the federal and Punjab level,” Raja Zafar-ul-Haq, the party’s chairman, told Arab News on Tuesday. 
“Sharif’s legacy of effective governance, particularly in addressing economic challenges, is unmatched and his recent tenure from 2013-17 exemplified his ability to navigate economic issues successfully.”
It was under Sharif’s premiership in 2015 that China and Pakistan signed an agreement relating to a multi-billion-dollar economic corridor, which is part of President Xi Jinping’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Sharif’s party has always positioned itself as one that champions development, and takes credit for building a vast network of roads and launching state-of-the-art mass transit projects.
Haq said if the PML-N wins the national polls, its primary focus would be crisis management and to address Pakistan’s primary challenges such as inflation and lack of security.
Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Islamabad-based think tank PILDAT, said the PML-N’s prospects of winning polls in Punjab and at the center were bright. He cited the results of a recently held survey by Gallup Pakistan, which said Sharif was catching up to Khan in approval ratings.
“This survey was done much before the PTI’s election symbol was taken away,” Mehboob told Arab News, referring to a decision by Pakistan’s election regulator last month to strip the party of its election symbol, a cricket bat.
The decision was a setback as the PTI’s candidates can only contest polls as independents.
“And now, this disadvantage will also impact them [PTI],” he explained.
Mehboob explained that “swing voters,” who are not traditionally aligned with a political party, tend to vote for the party they perceive is favored to win elections.
“In these elections, that party is the PML-N,” he noted.
Mehboob said relatively, the PML-N’s previous performances in terms of governance were better than other political parties.
“Economy is the key challenge and improving relations with India is a key factor for Pakistan to improve its economy, to divert its spending away from India which Sharif always propagated,” he said.
The PML-N was a part of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), a coalition of parties that ousted Khan from the prime minister’s office in a parliamentary no-trust vote in April 2022. After Khan’s ouster, Sharif’s younger brother, Shehbaz Sharif, remained prime minister till August 2023.
Once close to Pakistan’s powerful military, Khan accuses the army of colluding with his rivals, the PML-N among them, to oust him from office in 2022. The military denies the allegation.
Public surveys and a string of by-elections proved Khan’s PTI surged in popularity as Shehbaz Sharif governed a country steeped in overlapping economic, security and political crises. Analysts have predicted PTI candidates pose the most serious challenge to the PML-N in the hotly contested Punjab province.
Political analyst Aasiya Riaz agreed that the PML-N’s chances of winning the upcoming elections were bright. She said it enjoyed better relations with the military than Khan’s PTI.
“How much that translates into seats for the PML-N would depend on voters on Feb. 8,” Riaz told Arab News.
However, she said Sharif’s decision to soften his stance toward the military, with whom he has had bitter relations in the past, could haunt the PML-N in terms of popularity with the masses.
His government was toppled by former military ruler Pervez Musharraf in October 1999 after Sharif attempted to sack the army general. In 2013, after Sharif was disqualified by Pakistan’s top court on corruption charges, he once again blamed the military for orchestrating his ouster from office.
Mehboob touched on the PML-N’s past relations with the military, noting that the party had had bitter disagreements with the institution. He said that could prove to be a challenge if the PML-N emerged victorious on Feb. 8.
“And I don’t know whether this will happen this time also or not, but that is something which they need to manage better,” he said.
The other flaw, he said, was that the PML-N had a history of appointing Sharif family members to key positions of power.
Riaz agreed.
“The party has historically neglected parliament and the provincial assemblies,” she said. “It has been unable to invest in institutional building and consensus forums which remained the party’s major weakness.”