Health ‘red lights are flashing already for the Middle East,’ GAIN’s executive director tells Arab News

Health ‘red lights are flashing already for the Middle East,’ GAIN’s executive director tells Arab News
A session of the World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos (AFP)
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Updated 19 January 2024
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Health ‘red lights are flashing already for the Middle East,’ GAIN’s executive director tells Arab News

Health ‘red lights are flashing already for the Middle East,’ GAIN’s executive director tells Arab News
  • Total of 3bn people worldwide cannot afford a healthy diet

DAVOS: Most of the risk factors associated with premature mortality and morbidity, such as obesity, diabetes, and hypertension, are related to what people eat, said Lawrence Haddad, executive director of the Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition.

A diet rich in sugar, salt, or trans fats, combined with portion sizes, is the No. 1 killer and that’s a big problem, he told Arab News during the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“The red lights are flashing already for the Middle East” and it is important for the region to move “towards a healthier diet and a food production system that’s more diverse to protect against shocks,” said Haddad.

The world is currently at the intersection of food systems and nutrition, and people usually think about one or the other, but GAIN aims to connect the two, he said, adding: “Some 3 billion people worldwide cannot afford a healthy diet, which is a massive problem.

“Malnutrition is generated by three things: people not eating enough food; people not eating enough of the right food; and people eating too much of the wrong food.”

Malnutrition tends to be hidden until it is too late. For example, in the US, more people have their legs amputated due to diabetes than from war, he said.

Obesity is a growing concern both in the region and globally. There are multiple reasons for it, such as the affordability of healthier foods, the environment, and marketing.

Haddad said that eating habits and food preferences were hard to change because they are set early on in life, so schools have to become an incubator for good eating habits.

Additionally, he said: “Making healthier foods more affordable is a big issue, but there are some foods that are healthy, and affordable, but not cool.”

Quinoa and kale, for example, are basic, healthy and affordable foods that became popular due to social media and marketing.

Haddad added: “There are ways in which you can reset, reboot, and valorize healthier foods.

“The private sector is brilliant at selling you things you don’t need. We need to get them more involved in making healthy foods desirable.” 

Part of GAIN’s work is in connecting the private and public sectors.

Haddad said: “The public sector is very important to set the rules of the game, but the private sector is the engine of our food system … it is the food system, whether it’s producers, retailers, processors, wholesalers, refrigeration, transport, marketing, or finance.”

The nonprofit has offices in eight African and four Asian countries and is currently in talks with the Islamic Development Bank with plans to enter the Middle East.

Haddad said: “We would very much like to work in the Middle East. Honestly, it’s just a question of how we break into that space and begin to develop the relationships with governments, businesses and funders.”


UAE non-oil sectors push GDP growth to 4% in 2024: CBUAE

UAE non-oil sectors push GDP growth to 4% in 2024: CBUAE
Updated 16 sec ago
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UAE non-oil sectors push GDP growth to 4% in 2024: CBUAE

UAE non-oil sectors push GDP growth to 4% in 2024: CBUAE

RIYADH: The UAE economy is expected to grow by 4 percent in 2024, driven by robust performance across key non-oil sectors, according to official projections. 

The Central Bank of the UAE’s Quarterly Economic Review for December indicates that growth will be supported by sectors including tourism, transportation and financial services, as well as insurance, construction, real estate, and communications. 

Looking ahead, growth is projected to accelerate to 4.5 percent in 2025 and 5.5 percent in 2026, as the country continues to benefit from economic diversification policies aimed at reducing its dependence on oil revenues. 

Non-oil GDP growth is forecast to remain robust, expanding by 4.9 percent in 2024 and 5 percent in 2025. 

The report attributed this growth to strategic government policies aimed at attracting foreign investment and promoting economic diversification. 

In the second quarter, non-oil GDP grew by 4.8 percent year on year, compared to 4.0 percent in the first quarter, supported by manufacturing, trade, transportation and storage, and real estate activities. 

In September, the CBUAE revised its GDP growth forecast for the year upward by 0.1 percentage points, citing expected improvements in the oil sector. 

Initially projecting a 3.9 percent growth for 2024, the central bank adjusted the figure to 4 percent. In its second-quarter economic report, the CBUAE forecasted a growth rate of 6 percent for 2025. 

The UAE’s 16 non-oil sectors continued their steady growth in the third quarter of the year, with wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, and construction being key contributors. 

The manufacturing sector has benefited from increased foreign direct investment, aligning with both federal and emirate-level strategies. 

The first nine months of the year also saw strong performance in the construction sector, reflecting significant investment in infrastructure and development projects. 

Non-oil trade exceeded 1.3 trillion dirhams ($353.9 billion) in the first half of the year, representing 134 percent of the country’s GDP, a 10.6 percent year-on-year increase. 

This growth underscores the success of the UAE’s economic diversification agenda and its comprehensive economic partnership agreements with various countries, which have strengthened trade relationships and driven exports.

The UAE has set ambitious economic targets to diversify its economy and reduce dependence on oil revenues.  

Under the We the UAE 2031 vision, the country aims to double its GDP from 1.49 trillion dirhams to 3 trillion dirhams, generate 800 billion dirhams in non-oil exports, and raise the value of foreign trade to 4 trillion dirhams.  

Additionally, the UAE plans to increase the tourism sector’s contribution to GDP to 450 billion dirhams. 

Oil production averaged 2.9 million barrels per day in the first 10 months of the year and is forecasted to grow by 1.3 percent for the year, with further acceleration to 2.9 percent in 2025.  

The fiscal sector also performed strongly in the first half of the year, with government revenue rising 6.9 percent on a yearly basis to 263.9 billion dirhams, equivalent to 26.9 percent of GDP.  

This increase was fueled by a significant 22.4 percent rise in tax revenues. Meanwhile, the fiscal surplus reached 65.7 billion dirhams, or 6.7 percent of GDP, marking a 38.8 percent increase from the 47.4 billion dirhams surplus, or 5.1 percent of GDP, recorded in the first half of 2023.  

Government capital expenditure surged by 51.7 percent year on year to 11 billion dirhams, reflecting the UAE’s commitment to advancing large-scale infrastructure projects and enhancing the country’s economic and investment landscape.

In the private sector, economic activity remained robust, with the UAE’s Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 54.1 in October this year, signaling continued optimism among businesses driven by sustained demand and sales growth.

Dubai’s PMI stood at 53.2 in October, closely aligning with the national average, indicating consistent growth in the emirate’s non-oil private sector.

Employment and wages also showed strong performance, with the number of employees covered by the CBUAE’s Wages Protection System rising by 4 percent year-on-year in September. 

Average salaries increased by 7.2 percent yearly during the same period, reflecting strong domestic consumption and sustainable GDP growth.  


Saudi Arabia, Iraq to propel digital cooperation amid top ministerial meeting

Saudi Arabia, Iraq to propel digital cooperation amid top ministerial meeting
Updated 37 min 55 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia, Iraq to propel digital cooperation amid top ministerial meeting

Saudi Arabia, Iraq to propel digital cooperation amid top ministerial meeting

RIYADH: Digital partnerships between Saudi Arabia and Iraq are on track to prosper after a top ministerial meeting between the two countries.

Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Communications and Information Technology, Abdullah Al-Swaha, met with his Iraqi counterpart, Hayam Al-Yasiri, during her visit to Saudi Arabia. The discussions focused on exploring new opportunities for joint investments in the field, according to the Saudi Press Agency.

The meeting also tackled ways to further stimulate entrepreneurship that supports innovation and encourages the growth of the digital economy.

This falls in line with the Kingdom’s objective to position itself as a global leader in artificial intelligence and digital transformation under Vision 2030. Goals include increasing the digital economy’s gross domestic product contribution from 14 percent in 2022 to 19.2 percent by 2025, digitizing 92 percent of government services, and raising the information and communication technology sector’s GDP share to 4 percent.

It also aligns with Iraq’s ongoing efforts to develop a digital transformation strategy to support the private and public sectors and drive economic growth.

During the meeting, the two parties also shed light on the importance of integrating efforts to develop the digital environment, empower capabilities, and raise the level of collaborations in priority areas such as AI as well as infrastructure development.

Earlier this month, as officials convened in Riyadh during the 19th Internet Governance Forum, Saudi Arabia also explored partnership opportunities with Germany, Japan, and France in emerging technologies, AI, and digital infrastructure.

Held from Dec. 15 to 19 at the King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, the UN-organized forum assembled global leaders to endorse global digital cooperation and address emerging challenges related to Internet governance.

At the forum’s opening at the time, the Kingdom revealed the Riyadh Declaration, a commitment to developing inclusive and responsible AI technologies in an attempt to address global challenges and drive economic value. 

In November, Saudi senior tech diplomat Deemah Al-Yahya, the secretary-general of the multilateral Digital Cooperation Organization, held talks with Iraq’s prime minister, Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani, about support for Baghdad’s plans to develop its digital business and AI sectors. 
 
The two sides discussed Iraq’s digital transformation strategy and the need to create and develop a workforce with the tech skills required to help grow the Iraqi economy effectively, SPA said at the time.


Aramco secures prime ratings for $10bn commercial paper program from Moody’s and Fitch

Aramco secures prime ratings for $10bn commercial paper program from Moody’s and Fitch
Updated 46 min 47 sec ago
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Aramco secures prime ratings for $10bn commercial paper program from Moody’s and Fitch

Aramco secures prime ratings for $10bn commercial paper program from Moody’s and Fitch

Saudi Aramco’s robust financial standing has been reaffirmed by Moody’s and Fitch, with the agencies assigning strong ratings to the energy giant’s newly established $10 billion US Commercial Paper Program.

Moody’s assigned a Prime-1 short-term issuer rating to the energy giant and reaffirmed its Aa3 long-term issuer rating with a stable outlook, reflecting the company’s ability to meet financial obligations. 

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings awarded an F1+ short-term rating, highlighting Aramco’s strong intrinsic capacity for timely payments and financial resilience. 

Aramco has established a $10 billion US Commercial Paper Program to issue notes with maturities of up to 270 days. 

Commercial paper is an unsecured, short-term debt instrument issued by corporations, typically used to cover receivables or meet short-term financial obligations, such as funding new projects. 

“Aramco has excellent liquidity. Its consolidated cash balance and operational cash flow are more than sufficient to meet the group’s debt maturities, investment commitments and dividends over the next 12 to 18 months,” said Moody’s. 

As of Sept. 30, the company had $69 billion of cash and cash equivalents. 

The credit rating agency also projected that Aramco is expected to generate $180 billion in funds from operations through March 2026, sufficient to cover $16 billion in debt maturities, $85 billion in capital spending, and $140 billion in dividends over the same period. 

The report also noted that the energy company maintains undrawn $10 billion multi-tranche revolving credit facilities, set to expire in April 2029. 

Fitch echoed similar confidence, noting that Aramco’s financial profile is bolstered by its conservative financial policies, low production costs, and strong pre-dividend free cash flow. 

“Its business profile is characterized by large-scale production, vast reserves, low production costs and expansion into downstream and petrochemicals,” said Fitch Ratings. 

It added: “We expect state support to be forthcoming, although historically the company’s robust financial position has not necessitated government support. Saudi Arabia has provided support to other government-related entities in the past.” 

Assigning an Aa3 baseline credit assessment rating to Aramco, Moody’s stated that the positive rating reflects the company’s proven track record in executing large-scale projects, significant downstream integration, conservative financial policy, and strong financial flexibility, supported by its low production costs. 

“These characteristics provide resilience through oil price cycles and also help balance carbon transition risk, which is a material credit consideration for oil and gas companies,” added Moody’s. 

Both agencies emphasized the strong link between Aramco’s ratings and those of the Saudi government. 

Moody’s highlighted that Aramco’s Aa3 rating reflects the Kingdom’s solid credit standing, recently upgraded to Aa3 by Moody’s in November. The agency added that any changes in the sovereign rating would directly impact Aramco’s ratings. 

Moody’s gives Aa3 ratings to countries which have a very low credit risk and hold the best ability to repay short-term debt. 

“An upgrade of the sovereign rating would likely lead to an upgrade of Aramco’s rating if it maintains prudent financial policies and robust credit metrics. Negative pressure on the sovereign rating will lead to negative pressure on Aramco’s rating,” said Moody’s in the latest report. 

Similarly, Fitch noted that Saudi Arabia’s A+ sovereign rating, affirmed in February, underscores the Kingdom’s strong capacity for financial commitments and its ability to provide support to Aramco if needed. 

Both agencies acknowledged Aramco’s capacity to adapt to market conditions, particularly its ability to adjust dividend commitments in response to oil price fluctuations. In 2024, Aramco delivered a base dividend of $81.2 billion, supported by its strong operating cash flow. 


Oil Updates — prices rise in thin pre-Christmas trade

Oil Updates — prices rise in thin pre-Christmas trade
Updated 24 December 2024
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Oil Updates — prices rise in thin pre-Christmas trade

Oil Updates — prices rise in thin pre-Christmas trade
  • Solid economic prospects for the US are also supporting prices

LONDON: Oil prices rose on Tuesday, reversing the prior session’s losses, buoyed by slightly positive market outlooks for the short term and stronger US economic data, despite thin trade ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Brent crude futures were up 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $72.96 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $69.53 a barrel at 07:22 a.m. Saudi time.
FGE analysts said they anticipated the benchmark prices would fluctuate around current levels in the short term “as activity in the paper markets decreases during the holiday season and market participants stay on the sidelines until they get a clearer view of 2024 and 2025 global oil balances.”
Supply and demand changes in December have been supportive of their current less-bearish view so far, the analysts said in a note.
“Given how short the paper market is on positioning, any supply disruption could lead to upward spikes in structure,” they added.
Some other analysts also pointed to signs of a positive outlook for oil over the next few months.
“The year is ending with the consensus from major agencies over long 2025 liquids balances starting to break down,” said Neil Crosby, Sparta Commodities’ assistant vice president of oil analytics, in a note. “The EIA’s STEO (short-term energy outlook) recently shifted their 2025 liquids to a draw despite continuing to bring back some OPEC+ barrels next year.”
Solid economic prospects for the US, the world’s largest oil consumer, are also supporting prices.
New orders for key US-manufactured capital goods surged in November amid strong demand for machinery, while new home sales also rebounded, in a sign that the US economy is on a solid footing toward the year-end.
In the shorter term, traders are looking for indications of US demand from the crude oil and fuel stockpiles data due from the American Petroleum Institute industry group later on Tuesday.
Analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 2 million barrels in the week to Dec. 20 in a sign of healthy demand. The Energy Information Administration is due to release its data on Friday. 


Arab markets see 60% surge in trading volumes in November: AMF  

Arab markets see 60% surge in trading volumes in November: AMF  
Updated 24 December 2024
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Arab markets see 60% surge in trading volumes in November: AMF  

Arab markets see 60% surge in trading volumes in November: AMF  

RIYADH: Trading activity across Arab financial markets surged in November, with volumes jumping nearly 60 percent, driven by strong performance in Iraq and other regional exchanges, a new report showed.  

In its latest monthly analysis, the Arab Monetary Fund reported that the Iraq Stock Exchange led the way with a 131.24 percent surge in trading volumes, followed by the Beirut Stock Exchange, which recorded an 87.83 percent increase. 

Other standout performers included the Damascus Securities Exchange with a 71.80 percent gain, Bahrain Bourse with 68.22 percent, and Dubai Financial Market with 54.26 percent. 

The surge in trading volumes across Arab financial markets comes against the backdrop of a region grappling with a complex mix of economic recovery efforts, geopolitical challenges, and fluctuating investor sentiment.

While some countries are benefiting from stabilizing oil prices and diversification efforts, others face hurdles such as political instability, currency pressures, and regional tensions 

Modest gains were seen in Egypt and Casablanca, which posted increases of 19.08 percent and 0.58 percent, respectively. However, some markets faced declines, with the most significant drop recorded by the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, where trading volumes fell by 61.67 percent.    

The market capitalization of Arab financial markets included in the Arab Monetary Fund’s composite index showed a slight improvement, rising 0.13 percent, or $5.54 billion, by the end of November compared to October.    

Nine exchanges reported gains, led by the Damascus Securities Exchange, which saw an increase of 16.17 percent in market capitalization, followed by the Dubai Financial Market at 5.17 percent.    

Other markets, including Casablanca, Iraq, Amman, and Kuwait, posted increases ranging from 3.71 percent to 1.23 percent.    

Conversely, declines were recorded in Beirut, Tunisia, Muscat, and Saudi Arabia, each reporting drops of less than 1 percent. Larger declines were observed in Palestine and Qatar, where market capitalization fell by 1.05 percent and 1.29 percent, respectively.  

“In terms of contribution to the overall monthly change in trading value, the Dubai Financial Market had the largest positive contribution at 2.18 percentage points,” the report noted.   

Meanwhile, the Saudi Stock Exchange made the most significant negative impact, contributing a decline of 0.31 percentage points.    

In contrast to the growth in trading volumes and marginal improvement in market capitalization, trading values across Arab financial markets plummeted by 25.11 percent in November compared to October.    

Six exchanges recorded increases in trading value, while nine posted declines. The Bahrain Bourse led the gains, with a 154.94 percent rise in trading value, followed by Beirut and Damascus, which grew by 87.97 percent and 58.81 percent, respectively.    

Dubai Financial Market also saw a 49.47 percent increase, contributing the highest positive impact of 2.18 percentage points to the monthly trading value change.   

On the downside, the Egyptian Exchange experienced the steepest decline in trading value, dropping 32.93 percent, while the Tunis Stock Exchange followed with a sharp 71.57 percent decrease.    

Other markets, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, and Iraq, recorded declines ranging from 6.64 percent to 18.66 percent.    

The Egyptian Exchange contributed the largest negative impact to the overall change in trading value, accounting for an 8.25 percentage-point drop.