World Economic Forum annual meeting kicks off in Davos against a backdrop of geopolitical fractures

Special World Economic Forum annual meeting kicks off in Davos against a backdrop of geopolitical fractures
1 / 2
Employees of a mosaic workshop work on panels, main, in a town in the war-ravaged Syrian province of Idlib. Low-income nations are likely to face further isolation from technologies and the associated job market. (AFP/File)
Special World Economic Forum annual meeting kicks off in Davos against a backdrop of geopolitical fractures
2 / 2
​ Millions more people lost their livelihoods and became dependent on humanitarian aid in 2023 owing to eruption of war in Sudan. (AFP/File) ​
Short Url
Updated 15 January 2024
Follow

World Economic Forum annual meeting kicks off in Davos against a backdrop of geopolitical fractures

World Economic Forum annual meeting kicks off in Davos against a backdrop of geopolitical fractures
  • Reports produced by Switzerland-based group identify key support strategies as MENA region faces a testing time
  • Even the most promising economies seen facing challenges that prevent a stronger balanced growth performance

DAVOS/LONDON:  Uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Hamas war in Palestine’s Gaza Strip has contributed to a slight weakening of economic growth expectations for 2024 in the wider Middle East and North Africa region, according to a new survey of chief economists by the World Economic Forum.

The January 2024 Chief Economists Outlook, published on Monday, noted that although the outlook has weakened since September last year, 61 percent of survey respondents continued to foresee moderate or stronger economic growth in the MENA region over the next year.




Palestinians storm a UN-run aid supply center ion in Deir al-Balah on October 28, 2023, following Israel's call for more than one million residents in northern Gaza to move south for their safety, amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. (AFP/File)

However, growth forecasts for the region remain susceptible to the increased risk of shocks, partly stemming from expanding geopolitical rifts due to the persistence of old conflicts and the eruption of new ones.

The growth outlook is also clouded by reduced oil demand and a substantial decline in tourism.

These factors, particularly the current geopolitical climate, are expected to contribute to the deepening global economic uncertainty in 2024, as 56 percent of experts anticipate further decline in most regions.




A aid worker from the humanitarian agency Premiere Urgence assists Sudanese refugees who crossed into Chad in Koufroun, near Echbara, on May 1, 2023. (AFP)/File)

There seems to be strong consensus among the chief economists this year that recent geopolitical developments will increase localization and strengthen geo-economic blocs, which, in turn, may deepen inequalities and widen the North-South divide in the next three years.

WEF 2024 MEETING THEMES

• Achieving security and cooperation in a fractured world.

• Creating growth and jobs for a new era.

• Artificial intelligence as a driving force for the economy and society.

• A long-term strategy for climate, nature and energy.

Against this backdrop, the WEF’s separate Future of Growth Report 2024 says the economic repercussions of the Middle East conflict are aggravating a range of interconnected global challenges, such as the climate crisis and a weakening social contract. Collectively, these issues are undoing the progress made in global development.

The Future of Growth Report evaluates the quality of growth across four pillars: Innovativeness, Inclusiveness, Sustainability and Resilience.

“Reigniting global growth will be essential to addressing key challenges, yet growth alone is not enough,” Saadia Zahidi, WEF managing director, said in a statement on Monday.




An Iraqi-Kurdish electrical engineer gives a briefing on solar energy in Sulaimaniyah in northern Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region on September 20, 2023. Despite its vast oil wealth, Iraq struggles to provide enough electricity to its 43 million people after decades of conflict and sanctions, as well as rampant corruption and crumbling infrastructure. (AFP/File)

“The report proposes a new way for assessing economic growth that balances efficiency with long-term sustainability, resilience and equity, as well as innovation for the future, aligning with both global and national priorities.”

In the Chief Economists Outlook, experts are optimistic that the potential of generative artificial intelligence could be part of the remedy.

The chief economists zeroed in on two key phenomena impacting the global economy — geopolitical developments and advancements in generative AI. The outlook found that the rapid advances in AI positioned it at the forefront of both business and policy agendas in 2024.

The survey respondents, however, were more optimistic about AI-enabled benefits in high-income economies than in developing nations. In high-income economies, AI is expected to significantly increase productivity gains and innovation over the next five years.




The Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority aims to raise awareness of the importance of generative artificial intelligence as it contributes to enhancing the building of a bright future for the Kingdom. (SDAIA illustration) 

Conversely, low-income nations, especially those susceptible to conflict and the effects of climate change, are expected to face further isolation from technologies, investment and the associated job market due to barriers to economic mobility.

But another WEF report released on Jan. 10, ahead of the organization’s annual meeting in Davos, suggested that the growing role of AI in the generation and dissemination of fake news was likely to fuel social unrest, especially during elections, in several major economies over the next two years.

The WEF’s Global Risks Report ranked both AI-driven false information and societal polarization among the greatest global risks in 2024.

Despite that, the perspectives of the chief economists were somewhat split regarding the likelihood of generative AI leading to a decline in trust within both high-income and low-income economies this year.

ANNUAL GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH (2018-2023)

• 1.01% High-income economies.

• 1.32% Upper-middle-income economies.

• 1.95% Lower-middle-income economies.

• 0.22% Low-income economies.

Source: World Economic Forum

The Chief Economists Outlook stated that although technological advances may revitalize global productivity, it is essential to implement policies that promote high-quality growth, rekindling global momentum and ensuring a balanced impact across income groups.

The survey respondents identified five key strategies to support developing economies in the current context.

These are “laying a sound institutional framework for long-term growth, improving integration into global value chains, tapping into green transition opportunities, strengthening innovation capacity, digital infrastructure and a sound investment climate, and investing in human capital and basic services.”

Escalating conflicts globally and a weakened commitment to peace and security cooperation have led to a 2 percent dip in global cooperation from 2020 to 2023, according to the WEF’s Global Cooperation Barometer 2024, released earlier this month.




A Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023. Prolonged disruption of shipping across the Red Sea is expected to result in higher inflation globally. (Houthi handout via REUTERS/File Photo) 

This increase in conflicts, including prolonged disruption in the Red Sea as well as rising climate volatility, are also expected to have an impact on inflation rates.

The Cooperation Barometer also recognized areas of strong cooperation, including climate and natural capital, trade and capital flows, and innovation and technology.

Climate-related threats were found to be the greatest long-term concern, according to the Global Risks Report, which highlighted that environmental risks were among the top 10 threats facing the world over the next decade.

 

 

 


Trump selects longtime adviser Keith Kellogg as special envoy for Ukraine and Russia

Trump selects longtime adviser Keith Kellogg as special envoy for Ukraine and Russia
Updated 16 sec ago
Follow

Trump selects longtime adviser Keith Kellogg as special envoy for Ukraine and Russia

Trump selects longtime adviser Keith Kellogg as special envoy for Ukraine and Russia
  • As special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Kellogg will have to navigate an increasingly untenable war between the two nations
  • Trump has criticized the billions that the Biden administration has poured into Ukraine
WEST PALM BEACH, Florida: President-elect Donald Trump said Wednesday that he has chosen Keith Kellogg, a highly decorated retired three-star general, to serve as his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia.
Kellogg, who is one of the architects of a staunchly conservative policy book that lays out an “America First” national security agenda for the incoming administration, will come into the role as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its third year in February.
Trump made the announcement on his Truth Social account, and said “He was with me right from the beginning! Together, we will secure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, and Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN!”
Kellogg, a retired Army lieutenant general who has long been Trump’s top adviser on defense issues, served as national security adviser to Vice President Mike Pence, was chief of staff of the National Security Council and then stepped in as an acting security adviser for Trump after Michael Flynn resigned.
As special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Kellogg will have to navigate an increasingly untenable war between the two nations.
The Biden administration has begun urging Ukraine to quickly increase the size of its military by drafting more troops and revamping its mobilization laws to allow for the conscription of troops as young as 18.
The White House has pushed more than $56 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s February 2022 invasion and expects to send billions more to Kyiv before Biden leaves office in less than months.
Trump has criticized the billions that the Biden administration has poured into Ukraine. Washington has recently stepped up weapons shipments and has forgiven billions in loans provided to Kyiv. The incoming Republican president has said he could end the war in 24 hours, comments that appear to suggest he would press Ukraine to surrender territory that Russia now occupies.
As a co-chairman of the American First Policy Institute’s Center for American Security, Kellogg wrote several of the chapters in the group’s policy book. The book, like the Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025,” is a move to lay out a Trump national security agenda and avoid the mistakes of 2016 when he entered the White House largely unprepared.
Kellogg in April wrote that “bringing the Russia-Ukraine war to a close will require strong, America First leadership to deliver a peace deal and immediately end the hostilities between the two warring parties.”
Kellogg was a character in multiple Trump investigations dating to his first term. He was among the administration officials who listened in on the July 2019 call between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky in which Trump prodded his Ukrainian counterpart to pursue investigations into the Bidens.
The call, which Kellogg would later say did not raise any concerns on his end, was at the center of the first of two House impeachment cases against Trump, who was acquitted by the Senate both times.
On Jan. 6, 2021, hours before pro-Trump rioters stormed the US Capitol, Kellogg, who was then Pence’s national security adviser, listened in on a heated call in which Trump told his vice president to object or delay the certification in Congress of President Joe Biden ‘s victory.
He later told House investigators that he recalled Trump saying to Pence words to the effect of: “You’re not tough enough to make the call.”

FBI says bomb threats made against Trump nominees

FBI says bomb threats made against Trump nominees
Updated 4 min 1 sec ago
Follow

FBI says bomb threats made against Trump nominees

FBI says bomb threats made against Trump nominees
  • “The FBI is aware of numerous bomb threats and swatting incidents targeting incoming administration nominees and appointees,” the agency said
  • Elize Stefanik, a Trump loyalist congresswoman tapped to be UN ambassador, said her residence in New York was targeted in a bomb threat

WASHINGTON: Several members of Donald Trump’s incoming administration have received threats including bomb alerts, the FBI said Wednesday, with one nominee reporting a pipe-bomb scare sent with a pro-Palestinian message.
“The FBI is aware of numerous bomb threats and swatting incidents targeting incoming administration nominees and appointees, and we are working with our law enforcement partners,” the agency said in a statement.
Swatting refers to the practice in which police are summoned urgently to someone’s house under false pretenses. Such hoax calls are common in the United States and have seen numerous senior political figures targeted in recent years.
Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for Trump’s transition team, earlier said that several appointees and nominees “were targeted in violent, unAmerican threats to their lives and those who live with them.”
Elize Stefanik, a Trump loyalist congresswoman tapped to be UN ambassador, said her residence in New York was targeted in a bomb threat.
She said in a statement that she, her husband, and small son were driving home from Washington for the Thanksgiving holiday when they learned of the threat.
Lee Zeldin, Trump’s pick to lead the Environmental Protection Agency, said his home was targeted with a pipe bomb threat sent with a “pro-Palestinian themed message.”
The former congressman from New York said he and his family were not home at the time.
Fox News Digital quoted unidentified sources saying that John Ratcliffe, Trump’s nominee to head the CIA, and Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary pick, were also targeted.
Ahead of his return to the House in January, Trump has already swiftly assembled a cabinet of loyalists, including several criticized for a severe lack of experience.
The Republican, who appears set to avoid trial on criminal prosecutions related to attempts to overturn his 2020 election loss, was wounded in the ear in July in an assassination attempt during a campaign rally. The shooter was killed in counter-fire.
In September, authorities arrested another man accused of planning to shoot at Trump while he played golf at his course in West Palm Beach, Florida.


Biggest snowstorm in half century hits Seoul

Biggest snowstorm in half century hits Seoul
Updated 56 min 25 sec ago
Follow

Biggest snowstorm in half century hits Seoul

Biggest snowstorm in half century hits Seoul
  • Around 300 flights were grounded, massive crowd at subways caused delays

SEOUL: The biggest November snowstorm to hit South Korea’s capital in more than a half century blanketed the capital on Wednesday, grounding hundreds of flights, disrupting commuter traffic and leaving at least two dead.

South Korea’s weather agency said 20 to 26 centimeters of snow fell in northern areas of Seoul and nearby areas. The agency said it was the heaviest snowstorm Seoul has experienced in November in 52 years. A storm on Nov. 28, 1972, dumped 12 centimeters.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said one person died and four others were injured in a five-vehicle accident in the eastern town of Hongcheon. The storm blanketed much of the country, with the central, eastern and southwestern regions recording about 10 to 28 centimeters of cover.

At least 317 flights were canceled or delayed at airports nationwide, while authorities ordered around 90 ferries to remain at port. They also shut down hundreds of hiking trails.

Icy road conditions slowed down the morning commute in Seoul and led to massive crowds at subways, causing delays. Emergency workers across the country responded to fallen trees, road signs and other safety risks.

Officials at the Safety Ministry said they couldn’t confirm any school closures as of Wednesday afternoon. Visitors dressed in traditional hanbok garb were busy taking photographs at Seoul’s snow-covered medieval palaces while snowmen popped up in playgrounds and schoolyards across the country.

The weather agency said snow will continue in most parts of the country until noon Thursday.

President Yoon Suk Yeol instructed the safety and transport ministries to mobilize all available relevant personnel and equipment to prevent traffic and other accidents.


Court to rule on ineligibility for France’s Le Pen in March

Court to rule on ineligibility for France’s Le Pen in March
Updated 27 November 2024
Follow

Court to rule on ineligibility for France’s Le Pen in March

Court to rule on ineligibility for France’s Le Pen in March
  • “This case is a lot less simple than some wanted to think. I still hope we will be heard” by the court, Le Pen, 56, told reporters
  • Her defense lawyer Rodolphe Bosseult had earlier told judges that prosecutors’ sentencing request was “a weapon of mass destruction of the way things work in a democracy“

PARIS: French far-right figurehead Marine Le Pen will learn in March whether she will be declared ineligible for elections, a Paris court said on Wednesday at the end of a trial for embezzling funds from the European Parliament.
Prosecutors have asked judges at the Paris criminal court that any sentence shutting Le Pen out of public office be applicable even if she appeals the court’s ruling.
That means that if found guilty on March 31, she could be blocked from participating in France’s next presidential election, scheduled for 2027 at the latest.
“This case is a lot less simple than some wanted to think. I still hope we will be heard” by the court, Le Pen, 56, told reporters following the hearing.
Her defense lawyer Rodolphe Bosseult had earlier told judges that prosecutors’ sentencing request was “a weapon of mass destruction of the way things work in a democracy.”
Bosseult added that if imposed, the penalty would affect “the whole electoral roll or even the validity of the vote” in any election.
Prosecutors’ bombshell request was topped off with a five-year jail term, three of which suspended, and a fine of 300,000 euros ($320,000).
At issue in the case are employment practices for assistants in the European Parliament to representatives of Le Pen’s National Front party — since renamed the National Rally (RN) — between 2004 and 2016.
Prosecutors say the party created a “system” using MEPS’ parliamentary allowances to hire people who in fact worked for the outfit in France — not in Brussels or Strasbourg.
The defense struggled throughout the case to produce evidence that any of the supposed assistants had in fact carried out relevant work.
And the European Parliament itself said the RN had cooked the books to the tune of 4.5 million euros.
Prosecutors said that Le Pen could again misuse public funds if allowed to continue in elected office, as justification for their sentencing request.
But her lawyer Bosselut said that the RN’s financial practices at the time were “banal... shared by every European party” in the parliament.
Buoyed this year by the RN’s unprecedented success at snap parliamentary elections, becoming France’s largest single party in parliament, Le Pen has characterised the sentencing request as an attempt to remove her by means of the judiciary rather than a political fair fight.


White House pressing Ukraine to draft 18-year-olds so they have enough troops to battle Russia

White House pressing Ukraine to draft 18-year-olds so they have enough troops to battle Russia
Updated 33 min 41 sec ago
Follow

White House pressing Ukraine to draft 18-year-olds so they have enough troops to battle Russia

White House pressing Ukraine to draft 18-year-olds so they have enough troops to battle Russia
  • The official said “the pure math” of Ukraine’s situation now is that it needs more troops in the fight
  • The Ukrainians believe they need about 160,000 additional troops, but the US administration believes they probably will need more than that

WASHINGTON: President Joe Biden’s administration is urging Ukraine to quickly increase the size of its military by drafting more troops and revamping its mobilization laws to allow for the conscription of troops as young as 18.
A senior Biden administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private consultations, said Wednesday that the outgoing Democratic administration wants Ukraine to lower the mobilization age to 18 from the current age of 25 to help expand the pool of fighting-age men available to help a badly outnumbered Ukraine in its nearly three-year-old war with Russia.
The official said “the pure math” of Ukraine’s situation now is that it needs more troops in the fight.
The White House has pushed more than $56 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s February 2022 invasion and expects to send billions more to Kyiv before Biden leaves office in less than months.
But with time running out, the Biden White House is also sharpening its viewpoint that Ukraine has the weaponry it needs and now must dramatically increase its troop levels if it’s going to stay in the fight with Russia.
The official said the Ukrainians believe they need about 160,000 additional troops, but the US administration believes they probably will need more than that.
More than 1 million Ukrainians are now in uniform, including National Guard and other units.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also been hearing concerns from allies in other Western capitals that Ukraine has a troop level problem and not an arms problem, according to European officials who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive diplomatic conversations.
The European allies have also stressed that the lack of depth means that it may soon become untenable for Ukraine to continue to operate in Russia’s Kursk border region that Ukraine seized this year. The situation in Kursk has become further complicated by the arrival of thousands of North Korean troops who have come to help Moscow try to claw back the land.
The stepped-up push on Ukraine to strengthen its fighting ranks also comes as Ukraine braces for President-elect Donald Trump to take office on Jan. 20. The Republican said he would bring about a swift end to the war and has raised uncertainty about whether his administration would continue the vital US military support for Ukraine.
“There are no easy answers to Ukraine’s serious manpower shortage, but lowering the draft age would help,” said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. “These are obviously difficult decisions for a government and society that has already endured so much due to Russia’s invasion.”
Ukraine has taken steps to broaden the pool of draft-eligible men, but the efforts have only scratched the surface against a much larger Russian military.
In April, Ukraine’s parliament passed a series of laws, including lowering its draft-eligible age for men from 27 to 25, aimed at broadening the universe of men who could be called on to join the grinding war.
Those laws also did away with some draft exemptions and created an online registry for recruits. They were expected to add about 50,000 troops, far short of what Zelensky said at the time was needed.
Zelensky has consistently stated that he has no plans to lower the mobilization age. A senior Ukrainian official, who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, said Ukraine does not have enough equipment to match the scale of its ongoing mobilization efforts.
The official said Ukrainian officials see the push to the lower the draft age as part of an effort by some Western partners to deflect attention from their own delays in providing equipment or belated decisions. The official cited as an example the delay in giving Ukraine permission to use longer-range weapons to strike deep into Russian territory.
The Ukrainians do not see lowering the draft age to recruit more soldiers as a substitute for countering Russia’s advantage in equipment and weaponry, the official said.
Conscription has been a sensitive matter in Ukraine throughout the war. Russia’s own problems with adequate troop levels and planning early in the war prevented Moscow from taking full advantage of its edge. But the tide has shifted and the US says the Ukrainian shortage can no longer be overlooked.
Some Ukrainians have expressed worry that further lowering the minimum conscription age and taking more young adults out of the workforce could backfire by further harming the war-ravaged economy.
The senior Biden administration official added that the administration believes that Ukraine can also optimize its current force by more aggressively dealing with soldiers who desert or go absent without leave.