World Economic Forum annual meeting kicks off in Davos against a backdrop of geopolitical fractures

Special World Economic Forum annual meeting kicks off in Davos against a backdrop of geopolitical fractures
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Employees of a mosaic workshop work on panels, main, in a town in the war-ravaged Syrian province of Idlib. Low-income nations are likely to face further isolation from technologies and the associated job market. (AFP/File)
Special World Economic Forum annual meeting kicks off in Davos against a backdrop of geopolitical fractures
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​ Millions more people lost their livelihoods and became dependent on humanitarian aid in 2023 owing to eruption of war in Sudan. (AFP/File) ​
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Updated 15 January 2024
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World Economic Forum annual meeting kicks off in Davos against a backdrop of geopolitical fractures

World Economic Forum annual meeting kicks off in Davos against a backdrop of geopolitical fractures
  • Reports produced by Switzerland-based group identify key support strategies as MENA region faces a testing time
  • Even the most promising economies seen facing challenges that prevent a stronger balanced growth performance

DAVOS/LONDON:  Uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Hamas war in Palestine’s Gaza Strip has contributed to a slight weakening of economic growth expectations for 2024 in the wider Middle East and North Africa region, according to a new survey of chief economists by the World Economic Forum.

The January 2024 Chief Economists Outlook, published on Monday, noted that although the outlook has weakened since September last year, 61 percent of survey respondents continued to foresee moderate or stronger economic growth in the MENA region over the next year.




Palestinians storm a UN-run aid supply center ion in Deir al-Balah on October 28, 2023, following Israel's call for more than one million residents in northern Gaza to move south for their safety, amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. (AFP/File)

However, growth forecasts for the region remain susceptible to the increased risk of shocks, partly stemming from expanding geopolitical rifts due to the persistence of old conflicts and the eruption of new ones.

The growth outlook is also clouded by reduced oil demand and a substantial decline in tourism.

These factors, particularly the current geopolitical climate, are expected to contribute to the deepening global economic uncertainty in 2024, as 56 percent of experts anticipate further decline in most regions.




A aid worker from the humanitarian agency Premiere Urgence assists Sudanese refugees who crossed into Chad in Koufroun, near Echbara, on May 1, 2023. (AFP)/File)

There seems to be strong consensus among the chief economists this year that recent geopolitical developments will increase localization and strengthen geo-economic blocs, which, in turn, may deepen inequalities and widen the North-South divide in the next three years.

WEF 2024 MEETING THEMES

• Achieving security and cooperation in a fractured world.

• Creating growth and jobs for a new era.

• Artificial intelligence as a driving force for the economy and society.

• A long-term strategy for climate, nature and energy.

Against this backdrop, the WEF’s separate Future of Growth Report 2024 says the economic repercussions of the Middle East conflict are aggravating a range of interconnected global challenges, such as the climate crisis and a weakening social contract. Collectively, these issues are undoing the progress made in global development.

The Future of Growth Report evaluates the quality of growth across four pillars: Innovativeness, Inclusiveness, Sustainability and Resilience.

“Reigniting global growth will be essential to addressing key challenges, yet growth alone is not enough,” Saadia Zahidi, WEF managing director, said in a statement on Monday.




An Iraqi-Kurdish electrical engineer gives a briefing on solar energy in Sulaimaniyah in northern Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region on September 20, 2023. Despite its vast oil wealth, Iraq struggles to provide enough electricity to its 43 million people after decades of conflict and sanctions, as well as rampant corruption and crumbling infrastructure. (AFP/File)

“The report proposes a new way for assessing economic growth that balances efficiency with long-term sustainability, resilience and equity, as well as innovation for the future, aligning with both global and national priorities.”

In the Chief Economists Outlook, experts are optimistic that the potential of generative artificial intelligence could be part of the remedy.

The chief economists zeroed in on two key phenomena impacting the global economy — geopolitical developments and advancements in generative AI. The outlook found that the rapid advances in AI positioned it at the forefront of both business and policy agendas in 2024.

The survey respondents, however, were more optimistic about AI-enabled benefits in high-income economies than in developing nations. In high-income economies, AI is expected to significantly increase productivity gains and innovation over the next five years.




The Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority aims to raise awareness of the importance of generative artificial intelligence as it contributes to enhancing the building of a bright future for the Kingdom. (SDAIA illustration) 

Conversely, low-income nations, especially those susceptible to conflict and the effects of climate change, are expected to face further isolation from technologies, investment and the associated job market due to barriers to economic mobility.

But another WEF report released on Jan. 10, ahead of the organization’s annual meeting in Davos, suggested that the growing role of AI in the generation and dissemination of fake news was likely to fuel social unrest, especially during elections, in several major economies over the next two years.

The WEF’s Global Risks Report ranked both AI-driven false information and societal polarization among the greatest global risks in 2024.

Despite that, the perspectives of the chief economists were somewhat split regarding the likelihood of generative AI leading to a decline in trust within both high-income and low-income economies this year.

ANNUAL GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH (2018-2023)

• 1.01% High-income economies.

• 1.32% Upper-middle-income economies.

• 1.95% Lower-middle-income economies.

• 0.22% Low-income economies.

Source: World Economic Forum

The Chief Economists Outlook stated that although technological advances may revitalize global productivity, it is essential to implement policies that promote high-quality growth, rekindling global momentum and ensuring a balanced impact across income groups.

The survey respondents identified five key strategies to support developing economies in the current context.

These are “laying a sound institutional framework for long-term growth, improving integration into global value chains, tapping into green transition opportunities, strengthening innovation capacity, digital infrastructure and a sound investment climate, and investing in human capital and basic services.”

Escalating conflicts globally and a weakened commitment to peace and security cooperation have led to a 2 percent dip in global cooperation from 2020 to 2023, according to the WEF’s Global Cooperation Barometer 2024, released earlier this month.




A Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023. Prolonged disruption of shipping across the Red Sea is expected to result in higher inflation globally. (Houthi handout via REUTERS/File Photo) 

This increase in conflicts, including prolonged disruption in the Red Sea as well as rising climate volatility, are also expected to have an impact on inflation rates.

The Cooperation Barometer also recognized areas of strong cooperation, including climate and natural capital, trade and capital flows, and innovation and technology.

Climate-related threats were found to be the greatest long-term concern, according to the Global Risks Report, which highlighted that environmental risks were among the top 10 threats facing the world over the next decade.

 

 

 


Eleven injured in militant attack in India-administered Kashmir

Eleven injured in militant attack in India-administered Kashmir
Updated 44 sec ago
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Eleven injured in militant attack in India-administered Kashmir

Eleven injured in militant attack in India-administered Kashmir
  • Militants throw grenade at Indian security forces in crowded Srinagar flea market
  • Kashmir has seen spate of attacks since recent elections in territory 

NEW DELHI: At least 11 people were injured when militants threw a grenade at Indian security forces on Sunday in a crowded flea market in Srinagar, capital of India-administered Kashmir, a police official said.

Militants missed their target and instead injured at least 11 people, the official told Reuters. The official wished to remain unnamed as he was not authorized to speak to the media.
The identity of the militant group responsible for the attack is unknown.

The injured were rushed to hospital for treatment where they were in a stable condition, the official said, adding that the explosion had caused panic in the market and sent shoppers scrambling for cover.

The attack comes a day after a top commander of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a militant group, was killed along with two other militants by Indian troops in Kashmir.

Kashmir has seen a spate of attacks since a government formed by an opposition alliance took over the territory, where separatist militants have fought security forces for decades, resulting in thousands of deaths.

Since the new government took over earlier last month, 15 people have died in different militant attacks.

Kashmir is claimed in full but ruled in part by both India and Pakistan, and the 2019 revocation of its special status, which saw it being split into two federally administered territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, led to the countries downgrading diplomatic ties.


Myanmar junta chief to make first China visit since seizing power

Myanmar junta chief to make first China visit since seizing power
Updated 9 min 18 sec ago
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Myanmar junta chief to make first China visit since seizing power

Myanmar junta chief to make first China visit since seizing power

BEIJING: Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing will travel to China this week to attend regional summits, state media reported on Monday, the embattled top general’s first visit to the influential neighbor since he seized power in a 2021 coup.
The Southeast Asian country has been in chaos since the coup, including along the Myanmar-China border, with an armed resistance movement combining with established ethnic minority armies militias to wrest control of large territories from the military government.
Min Aung Hlaing will attend summits of the Greater Mekong Subregion and the Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS) and join a meeting with Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam from Nov. 6-7 in Kunming, MRTV reported.
“He will have meetings and discussions with authorities from China and will work on enhancing the bilateral relationship, economic and development in several sectors,” it said, referring to the junta chief.
Facing anti-junta fighters who have made rapid gains since launching a surprise offensive last October, the Myanmar military’s degradation has alarmed China, which has sealed parts of the border and shut off key imports to territory under rebel control, Reuters has reported.


Pakistan shuts primary schools for a week in Lahore due to dangerous air quality

Pakistan shuts primary schools for a week in Lahore due to dangerous air quality
Updated 30 min 34 sec ago
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Pakistan shuts primary schools for a week in Lahore due to dangerous air quality

Pakistan shuts primary schools for a week in Lahore due to dangerous air quality
  • Some wooden houses caught fire, and the ground was pockmarked with holes caused by flying molten rocks

East Flores: A volcano in eastern Indonesia erupted overnight killing at least six people as it spewed fireballs and ash on surrounding villages, officials said Monday, as they raised its alert status to the highest level.
Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki, a 1,703-meter (5,587-feet) twin volcano located on the popular tourist island of Flores, first erupted shortly before midnight, forcing authorities to evacuate several villages.
“Six fatalities have been confirmed,” Abdul Muhari, spokesman of the country’s disaster mitigation agency (BNPB), told Kompas TV.
Footage received by AFP showed villages near the volcano covered by thick ash, with some areas on fire.
An AFP journalist near the volcano said five villages evacuated, affecting thousands of residents.
Some wooden houses caught fire, and the ground was pockmarked with holes caused by flying molten rocks.
The crater erupted just before midnight and then again at 1:27 am (1727 GMT Sunday) and 2:48 am, the country’s volcanology agency said.
It raised the alert level to the highest and told locals and tourists not to carry out activities within a seven-kilometer (4.3-mile) radius of the crater.
“There has been a significant increase in volcanic activity on Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki,” it said in a press release Monday.
It released images that showed the roofs of houses collapsed after they were hit by volcanic rocks, and locals sheltering in communal buildings.
The volcanology agency warned there was a potential for rain-induced lava floods and told locals to wear masks to avoid the effects of volcanic ash.
There were a series of eruptions at the volcano last week, the biggest on Thursday, sending a column of ash 2,000 meters (6,500 feet) into the sky.
The mountain had several major eruptions in January, prompting authorities at the time to raise the alert status to the highest level and evacuate at least 2,000 residents.
Indonesia, a vast archipelago nation, experiences frequent eruptions due to its position on the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” an area of intense volcanic and seismic activity.
In December last year, an eruption at one of the country’s most active volcanoes, Mount Marapi in West Sumatra, killed at least 24 climbers, most of them university students.
And in May, more than 60 people died after heavy rains washed volcanic material from Marapi into residential areas, sweeping away homes.
That month Mount Ruang in North Sulawesi province erupted more than half a dozen times, forcing thousands of residents of nearby islands to evacuate.


What to know about the unprecedented floods that killed more than 200 in Spain

What to know about the unprecedented floods that killed more than 200 in Spain
Updated 04 November 2024
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What to know about the unprecedented floods that killed more than 200 in Spain

What to know about the unprecedented floods that killed more than 200 in Spain
  • Scientists said the immediate cause of the flooding is called a cut-off lower-pressure storm system that migrated from an unusually wavy and stalled jet stream
  • The extreme weather event came after Spain battled with prolonged droughts in 2022 and 2023. Experts say that drought and flood cycles are increasing with climate change

Scientists said the immediate cause of the flooding is called a cut-off lower-pressure storm system that migrated from an unusually wavy and stalled jet stream

The extreme weather event came after Spain battled with prolonged droughts in 2022 and 2023. Experts say that drought and flood cycles are increasing with climate change

VALENCIA, Spain: In a matter of minutes, flash floods caused by heavy downpours in eastern Spain swept away almost everything in their path. With no time to react, people were trapped in vehicles, homes and businesses. Many died and thousands of livelihoods were shattered.
Five days later, authorities have recovered 217 bodies — with 213 of them in the eastern Valencia region. They continued to search on Sunday for an unknown number of missing people with the help of some 5,000 fresh soldiers who arrived over the weekend.
An enraged crowd in hard-hit Paiporta hurled mud and other objects at Spain’s royals, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and regional officials when the leaders made their first visit to the epicenter of the flood damage on Sunday.

Locals and volunteers remove muddy water on Nov. 1, 2024, after a flooding devastated the town of Paiporta, in the region of Valencia, eastern Spain. (AFP)

Thousands of volunteers were helping to clear away the thick layers of mud and debris that still covered houses, streets and roads, all while facing drinking water cuts and shortages of some basic goods. Inside some of the vehicles that the water washed away or trapped in underground garages, there were still bodies waiting to be identified.
Here are a few things to know about Spain’s deadliest storm in living memory:
What happened?
The storms concentrated over the Magro and Turia river basins and, in the Poyo riverbed, produced walls of water that overflowed riverbanks, catching people unaware as they went on with their daily lives on Tuesday evening and early Wednesday.
In the blink of an eye, the muddy water covered roads and railways, and entered houses and businesses in towns and villages on the southern outskirts of Valencia city. Drivers had to take shelter on car roofs, while residents took refuge on higher ground.

Spain’s national weather service said that in the hard-hit locality of Chiva, it rained more in eight hours than it had in the preceding 20 months, calling the deluge “extraordinary.” Other areas on the southern outskirts of Valencia city didn’t get rain before they were wiped out by the wall of water that overflowed the drainage canals.
When authorities sent alerts to mobile phones warning of the seriousness of the flooding and asking people to stay at home, many were already on the road, working or covered in water in low-lying areas or underground garages, which became death traps.
Why did these massive flash floods happen?
Scientists trying to explain what happened see two likely connections to human-caused climate change. One is that warmer air holds and then dumps more rain. The other is possible changes in the jet stream — the river of air above land that moves weather systems across the globe — that spawn extreme weather.
Climate scientists and meteorologists said the immediate cause of the flooding is called a cut-off lower-pressure storm system that migrated from an unusually wavy and stalled jet stream. That system simply parked over the region and poured rain. This happens often enough that in Spain they call them DANAs, the Spanish acronym for the system, meteorologists said.
And then there is the unusually high temperature of the Mediterranean Sea. It had its warmest surface temperature on record in mid-August, at 28.47 degrees Celsius (83.25 degrees Fahrenheit), said Carola Koenig of the Center for Flood Risk and Resilience at Brunel University of London.
The extreme weather event came after Spain battled with prolonged droughts in 2022 and 2023. Experts say that drought and flood cycles are increasing with climate change.
 

Has this happened before?
Spain’s Mediterranean coast is used to autumn storms that can cause flooding, but this episode was the most powerful flash flood event in recent memory.
Older people in Paiporta, at the epicenter of the tragedy, say Tuesday’s floods were three times as bad as those in 1957, which caused at least 81 deaths. That episode led to the diversion of the Turia watercourse, which meant that a large part of the town was spared of these floods.
Valencia suffered two other major DANAs in the 1980s, one in 1982 with around 30 deaths, and another one five years later that broke rainfall records.
The flash floods also surpassed the flood that swept away a campsite along the Gallego river in Biescas, in the northeast, killing 87 people, in August 1996.
What has the state response been?
Management of the crisis, classified as level two on a scale of three by the Valencian government, is in the hands of the regional authorities, who can ask the central government for help in mobilizing resources.
At the request of Valencia’s regional president, Carlos Mazón, Sánchez announced Saturday the deployment of 5,000 more soldiers who will join rescue efforts, clear debris and provide water and food. The new soldiers will join the 2,500 others involved in the emergency work.

The government has also pledged to send 5,000 more Civil Guard gendarmes and National Police officers to the region, nearly doubling the 4.500 already there.
When many of those affected said they felt abandoned by the authorities, a wave of volunteers arrived to help. Carrying brooms, shovels, water and basic foods, hundreds of people walked several kilometers to deliver supplies and help clean up the worst-affected areas.
Sánchez’s government is expected to approve a disaster declaration on Tuesday that will allow quick access to financial aid. Mazón has announced additional economic assistance.
The Valencia regional government was criticized for not sending out flood warnings to cellphones until 8 p.m. on Tuesday, when the flooding had already started in some places and well after the national weather agency issued a red alert indicating heavy rains.


Death toll from Indonesia volcano eruption rises to 10: disaster agency

Death toll from Indonesia volcano eruption rises to 10: disaster agency
Updated 28 min 51 sec ago
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Death toll from Indonesia volcano eruption rises to 10: disaster agency

Death toll from Indonesia volcano eruption rises to 10: disaster agency
  • Fiery lava and rocks hit the nearest settlements around four km from the crater, burning and damaging residents’ houses
  • Indonesia sits on the “Pacific Ring of Fire,” an area of high seismic activity atop multiple tectonic plates

JAKARTA: The death toll from a volcano erupting several times overnight in eastern Indonesia has risen to 10, the country’s disaster mitigation agency said Monday.
“The death toll from the Lewotobi Laki-Laki’s eruption is now 10 people,” agency spokesman Abdul Muhari told a press conference.

Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki in eastern Indonesia erupted on Sunday, spewing explosive plumes of lava and forcing authorities to evacuate several nearby villages, officials said on Monday.
Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki, located on Flores Island in East Nusa Tenggara province, erupted on Sunday at 23.57 local time (15:57 GMT), belching a fiery-red column of lava, volcanic ash and incandescent rocks, Hadi Wijaya, a spokesperson for The Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG), said on Monday.
“After the eruption, there was power outage and then it was raining and big lightning which caused panic among residents,” he told Reuters, adding that the authority had raised the status of the volcano to level IV or the highest.
The agency has recommended a seven-kilometer (4.35 miles)radius must be cleared.
Fiery lava and rocks hit the nearest settlements around four km from the crater, burning and damaging residents’ houses, Hadi said.

Google map showing the location of  Indonesia's erupting Laki-Laki Volcano on the eastern island of Flores.

As of Monday morning at least nine people had died, said Heronimus Lamawuran, a local official at East Flores area, adding the eruption had affected seven villages.
“We have started evacuating residents since this morning to other villages located around 20 km (13 miles) from the crater,” he said.
The nearest villages were covered by thick volcanic ash on Monday morning, Heronimus added.
The authorities are still gathering data on the number of evacuees and damaged buildings.
Indonesia sits on the “Pacific Ring of Fire,” an area of high seismic activity atop multiple tectonic plates.
This eruption follows a series of eruptions of different volcanoes in Indonesia. In May, a volcano on the remote island of Halmahera, Mount Ibu, caused evacuation of people from seven villages.
North Sulawesi’s Ruang volcano has also erupted in May and prompted authorities to evacuate more than 12,000 people.
Flash floods and cold lava flow from Mount Marapi in West Sumatra province, covered several nearby districts following torrential rain on May 11, killing more than 60 people.