Why attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on Red Sea shipping pose a clear and present danger to Israel

Special Attacks on Red Sea commercial shipping by Yemen’s Houthi militia in response to Israel’s bombardment of Gaza is likely to hit the Israeli economy as vessels bypass Port of Eilat. (Shutterstock)
Attacks on Red Sea commercial shipping by Yemen’s Houthi militia in response to Israel’s bombardment of Gaza is likely to hit the Israeli economy as vessels bypass Port of Eilat. (Shutterstock)
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Updated 21 December 2023
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Why attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on Red Sea shipping pose a clear and present danger to Israel

Why attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on Red Sea shipping pose a clear and present danger to Israel
  • Attacks on commercial vessels have spiked since mid-November in retaliation for Gaza bombardment
  • Experts say prolonged disruption could cause Israel to retaliate against the militia, widening conflict 

DUBAI: Two of the world’s biggest shipping firms, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, recently suspended the passage of container ships through the Red Sea’s Bab Al-Mandab Strait following a spate of attacks on commercial shipping by Yemen’s Houthi militia.

Disruption to the shipping route, which connects the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea, has interrupted the flow of trade and raised geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. One economy in the region that is particularly exposed is Israel.

“Shipping coming from Asia will now have to divert and go through the Cape of Good Hope, all around Africa to reach (Israel),” Riad Kahwaji, a Dubai-based Middle East analyst and founder and director of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, told Arab News.

“Definitely, economically, it will be impacted. It is not good for the economies of all countries that are on the Red Sea.”

And it is not just shipping routes close to home that are feeling the squeeze.

On Wednesday, Malaysia’s government announced it was imposing a ban on all Israeli owned and flagged ships, as well as any vessels headed to Israel, from docking at its ports, in response to Israel’s conduct in its conflict with Hamas.

Attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea have increased significantly since mid-November in response to Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, prompting some vessels to halt operations in the region or to reroute via the southern tip of Africa.

Besides Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, oil firm BP and oil tanker group Frontline have also said they will be avoiding the Red Sea route and rerouting via Africa’s Cape of Good Hope — a detour that can take 10 days longer, adding some 3,500 nautical miles to the journey.

Oil and gas prices have surged and shipping premiums have almost doubled for some carriers in response to the disruption.

The Houthi militia, which is part of the same Axis of Resistance as the Palestinian militant group Hamas, has said that the attacks on commercial shipping are an act of retaliation for the “oppression of the Palestinian people.”




The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier refuels from the underway replenishment oiler USNS Laramie in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, Oct. 11, 2023. (US Navy via AP)

In one high-profile incident on Nov. 19, Houthi gunmen filmed themselves rappelling from a helicopter onto the deck of the cargo vessel Galaxy Leader, seizing control of the ship and its 25 international crew.

The Bahamas-flagged, British-owned vessel, operated by a Japanese firm but having links to an Israeli businessman, was headed from Turkiye to India when it was seized and re-routed to Yemen’s port of Hodeidah, where it has become a tourist attraction.

Experts warn that such attacks have raised the possibility of Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, launched in response to the Palestinian militant group’s attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, spilling over into the wider region.

On Dec. 15, Danish shipping company Maersk instructed all its vessels in the Red Sea to pause voyages through the Bab Al-Mandab Strait after a “near-miss incident” involving a Maersk Gibraltar vessel and “yet another attack on a container vessel.”

Friday’s attacks on the Maersk Gibraltar and Hapag-Lloyd’s Al-Jasrah occurred near the Bab Al-Mandab, through which around 20,000 ships pass annually, serving ports throughout the littoral states, including Israel’s Port of Eilat.

The Maersk Gibraltar vessel was targeted by a missile while traveling from Salalah, Oman, to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Both the crew and the vessel were reported safe.




Palestinians salvage their belongings after an Israeli strike in Rafah, Gaza Strip, in December. (AP)

On Dec. 19, the US government announced “Operation Prosperity Guardian” — an international maritime coalition involving Western and Arab countries to protect shipping in the Red Sea.

Lloyd Austin, the US defense secretary, held a virtual meeting with ministers from more than 40 countries on Tuesday, and called on more nations to contribute to efforts to keep shipping safe in the region.

“Right now, we have a multinational force led by the US, so the Israelis have been asked to not regulate (the situation) but to allow an international response force to deal with it so as not to turn it into a confrontation between the Houthis and Iran with the Israelis,” said Kahwaji.

“The pretext (for this new force) is that it is an attack on international shipping, so it is a global response. Today we have a coalition of nine countries that will likely grow larger, and it will conduct operations to protect the sea lanes and will likely retaliate to the attacks on the ships.”

INNUMBERS

* 12% Proportion of annual global trade that passes through the Red Sea.

* $1tn Value of commercial goods passing through the Red Sea per year.

* 20,000 Number of ships that pass through the Bab Al-Mandab Strait annually.

* 3,500 nautical miles Added distance around the Cape of Good Hope.

In some cases, Houthi militiamen have boarded or attempted to board merchant vessels, while in other instances they have targeted cargo ships with missiles and drones. Although damage has been minimal, the situation remains tense.

According to Reuters, several container ships anchored in the Red Sea have turned off their tracking systems while they adjust course.

Many ships are continuing to use the waterway, with several that have armed guards on board, according to Reuters news agency, citing data from the London Stock Exchange Group.

Although the Houthi attacks and resulting disruption to commercial shipping will likely have an impact on Israel’s economy, experts believe the country is unlikely to experience shortages or significant price inflation as a result.




Members of the Houthi militia during the capture of an Israel-linked cargo vessel at an undefined location in the Red Sea. (AP)

“Israel has outlets on both the Red Sea and the Mediterranean,” said Kahwaji, predicting that Israeli authorities will divert all shipping to the Port of Haifa, the largest of Israel’s three major international seaports.

“Yes, the Israeli economy will be affected, but does it mean that Israel will not be able to get anything? No,” he added.

As one of the world’s busiest shipping channels, the Red Sea is positioned south of the Suez Canal and constitutes the most significant waterway connecting Europe to Asia and East Africa.

Any ship passing through the Suez Canal to or from the Indian Ocean has to come via the strait of Bab Al-Mandab and the Red Sea.

The Suez Canal is the quickest sea route between Asia and Europe and is particularly important in the transportation of oil and liquefied natural gas.




Lloyd Austin, the US defense secretary, held a virtual meeting with ministers from more than 40 countries on Tuesday, and called on more nations to contribute to efforts to keep shipping safe in the region. (AFP/File Photo)

About 12 percent of global trade passes through the Red Sea, including 30 percent of global container traffic and $1 trillion worth of goods each year.

Billions of dollars worth of commercial goods and supplies pass through the Red Sea every year. This means that delays or disruption can impact petrol prices, the availability of electronics and other aspects of global trade.

The Bab Al-Mandab Strait is a particularly vulnerable choke point along the shipping route, making it a target for piracy and terrorism. Located at its southern end of the Red Sea between Djibouti and Yemen, the strait is 18 miles wide at its narrowest point.

If the US-led naval operation in the Red Sea fails to deter further Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, leading to prolonged disruption, Israel may feel compelled to act against the Yemeni militia, marking a potentially dangerous regional escalation.

Indeed, given that the US is eager to avoid direct involvement in a potential conflict or an escalation involving Iran and its many proxy militias throughout the region, few expect the joint naval force to do more beyond patrols.

“It all depends on the rules of engagement to be adopted by this new naval joint force,” said Kahwaji.

“Will they adopt limited rules of engagement that confine them to protecting just the ships and providing defense against drones or missiles? Or will they take proactive measurements, carrying out pre-emptive strikes, retaliating against the attacks by going after the missile launchers, targeting the bases from where they are launching the drones?”

As of now, the attacks on commercial shipping pose a threat to regional economies, many of which are still adjusting their supply chains following the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

If Houthi attacks in the Red Sea continue or become more severe, resulting in casualties among crew, the sinking of vessels, or attacks on military targets, then the conflict has every possibility of spreading beyond Gaza and engulfing the region.

 


15 Turkish-backed fighters killed in north Syria clashes with Kurdish-led forces

15 Turkish-backed fighters killed in north Syria clashes with Kurdish-led forces
Updated 6 sec ago
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15 Turkish-backed fighters killed in north Syria clashes with Kurdish-led forces

15 Turkish-backed fighters killed in north Syria clashes with Kurdish-led forces

BEIRUT: At least 15 Ankara-backed Syrian fighters were killed Sunday after Kurdish-led forces infiltrated their territory in the country’s north, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said.
Fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who controls swathes of the country’s northeast, “infiltrated positions of the Turkish-backed” fighters in the Aleppo countryside, said the Observatory, which has a network of sources inside Syria.
“The two sides engaged in violent clashes” that killed 15 of the Ankara-backed fighters, the monitor said.
An AFP correspondent in Syria’s north said the clashes had taken place near the city of Al-Bab, where authorities said schools would be suspended on Monday due to the violence.
The SDF is a US-backed force that spearheaded the fighting against the Daesh group in its last Syria strongholds before its territorial defeat in 2019.
It is dominated by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), viewed by Ankara as an offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which claimed the attack on Ankara.
Turkish troops and allied rebel factions control swathes of northern Syria following successive cross-border offensives since 2016, most of them targeting the SDF.


Israel moving towards a ceasefire deal in Lebanon, Axios reports

Israel moving towards a ceasefire deal in Lebanon, Axios reports
Updated 16 min 2 sec ago
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Israel moving towards a ceasefire deal in Lebanon, Axios reports

Israel moving towards a ceasefire deal in Lebanon, Axios reports

BEIRUT: Israel is moving towards a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon with the Hezbollah militant group, Axios reporter Barak Ravid posted on X on Sunday, citing a senior Israeli official.
A separate report from Israel's public broadcaster Kan, citing an Israeli official, said there was no green light given on an agreement in Lebanon, with issues still yet to be resolved.

 


Russia plane evacuated in Turkiye as engine catches fire

Russia plane evacuated in Turkiye as engine catches fire
Updated 25 min 13 sec ago
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Russia plane evacuated in Turkiye as engine catches fire

Russia plane evacuated in Turkiye as engine catches fire
  • “Eighty nine passengers and six crew members on board were safely evacuated at 9:43 p.m. (1843 GMT) and there were no injuries”

ISTANBUL: More than 90 passengers and crew were evacuated from a Russian plane Sunday after one of its engines caught fire while landing at an airport in southern Turkiye, the transport ministry said.
The incident involved a Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SU95) operated by Russia’s Azimuth Airlines.
They plane had just landed at Antalya airport on Turkiye’s Mediterranean coast when a fire broke out in one of its engines, a ministry statement said.
“A SU95 type and RA89085-registered aircraft of Azimuth Airlines traveling from Sochi airport in Russia to Antalya airport had an engine fire during landing,” it said.
“Eighty nine passengers and six crew members on board were safely evacuated at 9:43 p.m. (1843 GMT) and there were no injuries.”
All further scheduled landings at the airport would be canceled until 3:00 am, it added, saying other planes waiting to depart would use the airport’s military runway for takeoff.
An airport official told Anadolou state news agency that the fire had affected its left engine but had been quickly extinguished.

 


War-hit Lebanon suspends in-person classes in Beirut area til end of December

Smoke billows over Beirut’s southern suburbs after an Israeli strike, seen from Baabda.
Smoke billows over Beirut’s southern suburbs after an Israeli strike, seen from Baabda.
Updated 25 November 2024
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War-hit Lebanon suspends in-person classes in Beirut area til end of December

Smoke billows over Beirut’s southern suburbs after an Israeli strike, seen from Baabda.
  • Education minister announced “the suspension of in-person teaching” in schools, technical institutes and private higher education institutions in Beirut
  • Suspension of in-person teaching also applies to parts of neighboring Metn, Baabda and Shouf districts starting Monday

BEIRUT: Lebanon has suspended in-person classes in the Beirut area until the end of December, the education ministry announced Sunday, citing safety concerns after a series of Israeli air strikes this week.
Education Minister Abbas Halabi announced in a statement “the suspension of in-person teaching” in schools, technical institutes and private higher education institutions in Beirut and parts of the neighboring Metn, Baabda and Shouf districts starting Monday “for the safety of students, educational institutions and parents, in light of the current dangerous conditions.”
Earlier on Sunday, Lebanese state media reported two Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, about an hour after the Israeli military posted evacuation calls online for parts of the Hezbollah bastion.
“Israeli warplanes launched two violent strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs in the Kafaat area,” the official National News Agency said.
The southern Beirut area has been repeatedly struck since September 23 when Israel intensified its air campaign also targeting Hezbollah bastions in Lebanon’s east and south. It later sent in ground troops to southern Lebanon.


Legal threats close in on Israel’s Netanyahu, could impact ongoing wars   

Legal threats close in on Israel’s Netanyahu, could impact ongoing wars   
Updated 24 November 2024
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Legal threats close in on Israel’s Netanyahu, could impact ongoing wars   

Legal threats close in on Israel’s Netanyahu, could impact ongoing wars   
  • The trial opened in 2020 and Netanyahu is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that he had been too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense

JERUSALEM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces legal perils at home and abroad that point to a turbulent future for the Israeli leader and could influence the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, analysts and officials say. The International Criminal Court (ICC) stunned Israel on Thursday by issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the 13-month-old Gaza conflict. The bombshell came less than two weeks before Netanyahu is due to testify in a corruption trial that has dogged him for years and could end his political career if he is found guilty. He has denied any wrongdoing. While the domestic bribery trial has polarized public opinion, the prime minister has received widespread support from across the political spectrum following the ICC move, giving him a boost in troubled times.
Netanyahu has denounced the court’s decision as antisemitic and denied charges that he and Gallant targeted Gazan civilians and deliberately starved them.
“Israelis get really annoyed if they think the world is against them and rally around their leader, even if he has faced a lot of criticism,” said Yonatan Freeman, an international relations expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
“So anyone expecting that the ICC ruling will end this government, and what they see as a flawed (war) policy, is going to get the opposite,” he added.
A senior diplomat said one initial consequence was that Israel might be less likely to reach a rapid ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon or secure a deal to bring back hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza.
“This terrible decision has ... badly harmed the chances of a deal in Lebanon and future negotiations on the issue of the hostages,” said Ofir Akunis, Israel’s consul general in New York.
“Terrible damage has been done because these organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas ... have received backing from the ICC and thus they are likely to make the price higher because they have the support of the ICC,” he told Reuters.
While Hamas welcomed the ICC decision, there has been no indication that either it or Hezbollah see this as a chance to put pressure on Israel, which has inflicted huge losses on both groups over the past year, as well as on civilian populations.

IN THE DOCK The ICC warrants highlight the disconnect between the way the war is viewed here and how it is seen by many abroad, with Israelis focused on their own losses and convinced the nation’s army has sought to minimize civilian casualties.
Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said the ICC move would likely harden resolve and give the war cabinet license to hit Gaza and Lebanon harder still.
“There’s a strong strand of Israeli feeling that runs deep, which says ‘if we’re being condemned for what we are doing, we might just as well go full gas’,” he told Reuters.
While Netanyahu has received wide support at home over the ICC action, the same is not true of the domestic graft case, where he is accused of bribery, breach of trust and fraud.
The trial opened in 2020 and Netanyahu is finally scheduled to take the stand next month after the court rejected his latest request to delay testimony on the grounds that he had been too busy overseeing the war to prepare his defense.
He was due to give evidence last year but the date was put back because of the war. His critics have accused him of prolonging the Gaza conflict to delay judgment day and remain in power, which he denies. Always a divisive figure in Israel, public trust in Netanyahu fell sharply in the wake of the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas assault on southern Israel that caught his government off guard, cost around 1,200 lives.
Israel’s subsequent campaign has killed more than 44,000 people and displaced nearly all Gaza’s population at least once, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe, according to Gaza officials.
The prime minister has refused advice from the state attorney general to set up an independent commission into what went wrong and Israel’s subsequent conduct of the war.
He is instead looking to establish an inquiry made up only of politicians, which critics say would not provide the sort of accountability demanded by the ICC.
Popular Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth said the failure to order an independent investigation had prodded the ICC into action. “Netanyahu preferred to take the risk of arrest warrants, just as long as he did not have to form such a commission,” it wrote on Friday.

ARREST THREAT The prime minister faces a difficult future living under the shadow of an ICC warrant, joining the ranks of only a few leaders to have suffered similar humiliation, including Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi and Serbia’s Slobodan Milosevic.
It also means he risks arrest if he travels to any of the court’s 124 signatory states, including most of Europe.
One place he can safely visit is the United States, which is not a member of the ICC, and Israeli leaders hope US President-elect Donald Trump will bring pressure to bear by imposing sanctions on ICC officials.
Mike Waltz, Trump’s nominee for national security adviser, has already promised tough action: “You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January,” he wrote on X on Friday. In the meantime, Israeli officials are talking to their counterparts in Western capitals, urging them to ignore the arrest warrants, as Hungary has already promised to do.
However, the charges are not going to disappear soon, if at all, meaning fellow leaders will be increasingly reluctant to have relations with Netanyahu, said Yuval Shany, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute.
“In a very direct sense, there is going to be more isolation for the Israeli state going forward,” he told Reuters.