Oil Updates – crude rises ahead of interest rate decisions, oversupply fears linger

Oil Updates – crude rises ahead of interest rate decisions, oversupply fears linger
Brent crude futures for February were up 47 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $76.50 a barrel as of 9:44 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
Short Url
Updated 12 December 2023
Follow

Oil Updates – crude rises ahead of interest rate decisions, oversupply fears linger

Oil Updates – crude rises ahead of interest rate decisions, oversupply fears linger

SINGAPORE: Oil prices ticked up on Tuesday but investors remained cautious ahead of key interest rate decisions and inflation data releases, while concerns over excess supply and slowing growth in demand kept a lid on gains, according to Reuters.

Brent crude futures for February were up 47 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $76.50 a barrel as of 9:44 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January delivery gained 50 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $71.82 a barrel.

“All attention will be on the US CPI data today to potentially set the tone for US policymakers at their upcoming meeting,” Yeap Jun Rong, market analyst at IG, said in a note.

The US Consumer Price Index report is due on Tuesday, while the Federal Open Markets Committee’s two-day monetary policy meeting will end on Wednesday.

The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, but the November Fed minutes showed that policymakers were still concerned that inflation could be stubborn, leaving the door open for additional tightening if needed.

“Further inflation progress will be on watch to validate the effectiveness of current restrictive policies in place and give more room for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider rate cuts in 2024 if economic conditions worsen,” said Yeap.

Also providing a lift to oil prices, a cruise missile launched from Houthi-controlled Yemen struck a commercial chemical tanker, causing a fire and damage but no casualties, two US defense officials told Reuters on Monday.

The strike is one of the latest attacks by the Iran-aligned Houthis against ships in the Red Sea, escalating geopolitical tension in the region and heightening safety risks for tankers in vital shipping lanes.

Meanwhile, EU countries are close to agreeing to a deal on a proposed 12th package of sanctions on Russia, focused on a Russia-origin diamond ban and new measures to stem the flow of Russian oil, according to four people familiar with the matter.

However, oil investors remain skeptical that total supply will drop after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, pledged to cut 2.2 million barrels per day for the first quarter of 2024, as output growth in non-OPEC countries is expected to lead to excess supply next year.

The voluntary cut may not be long enough, analysts and traders said, as crude oil physical and futures prices show increasing signs of surplus ahead of their implementation.

“Growth at US shale oil operations continues to surprise on the upside, while gains across other non-OPEC producers have been unexpectedly large,” said ANZ Research analysts in a note.

Both WTI and Brent are in a contango market structure, when prompt contracts are lower than later-dated contracts, for the first several months of 2024. That indicates that investors feel there is lower demand for crude or adequate supply for those months.

“The market should get a fresh take on fundamentals when OPEC and the International Energy Agency release their monthly oil market reports this week. The oil market is also watching negotiations at COP28,” said ANZ analysts.

A coalition of more than 100 countries had been pushing for an agreement that would for the first time promise an eventual end to the oil age, but are up against opposition from OPEC members.


S&P Global forecasts 4.7% GDP growth for Saudi Arabia in 2025

S&P Global forecasts 4.7% GDP growth for Saudi Arabia in 2025
Updated 28 November 2024
Follow

S&P Global forecasts 4.7% GDP growth for Saudi Arabia in 2025

S&P Global forecasts 4.7% GDP growth for Saudi Arabia in 2025

RIYADH: S&P Global has projected steady growth for Saudi Arabia’s economy, forecasting a 0.8 percent gross domestic product increase in 2024 and a robust 4.7 percent in 2025. 

The agency’s adjustments to its earlier forecasts reflect a recalibration of oil production assumptions, now expected at 9.5 million barrels per day in 2025, down from 9.7 million.

The Kingdom’s non-oil sector continues to exhibit strong potential, supporting Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification efforts. 

S&P also anticipated low and stable inflation in the Kingdom, forecasting rates of 1.8 percent in 2024 and 1.7 percent in 2025, highlighting the country’s success in maintaining price stability amid global economic volatility. 

The agency reduced its real GDP growth forecasts for emerging markets by 10 basis points for both 2025 and 2026, now projecting growth rates of 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively.  

The Kingdom saw the largest downward revision for 2025, with a reduction of 60 bps, followed by Hungary and Mexico. 

“In Saudi Arabia, our revision reflects lower oil production assumptions than previously anticipated,” S&P stated. 

The report cited recent OPEC+ announcements and trends in global oil markets as factors behind the adjusted projections for Saudi oil output. 

S&P also revised its forecasts for other regions. South Africa’s GDP growth projections were raised to 1 percent in 2024 and 1.6 percent in 2025, driven by strong retail sales and a new pension scheme boosting household consumption. While infrastructure challenges remain, ongoing reforms could enhance long-term growth prospects. 

In Southeast Asia, S&P noted heightened uncertainty due to reliance on trade and slowing growth in China. 

However, domestic demand remains resilient, supported by sectors like IT, finance, and a recovering tourism industry. Manufacturing, particularly electronics, continues to perform well, and inflation is under control, enabling some central banks to ease monetary policy. 

S&P upgraded growth forecasts for Malaysia and Vietnam, citing strong electronics supply chains and resilient domestic demand. Vietnam also benefits from recovering financial and real estate sectors. India’s growth remains robust but is expected to moderate after April 2025 due to slowing consumer momentum and challenges in the rural economy. 

The Philippines is projected to see slightly slower growth due to softer consumption, though infrastructure investment will provide medium-term support. Indonesia and Thailand maintain stable outlooks, with emerging sectors like electric vehicles and fiscal stimulus driving development. 

S&P also highlighted downside risks to global growth, particularly from uncertainties in US trade policy under President-elect Trump.  

While the agency assumed a modest tariff increase between the US and China, it warned that more aggressive measures could significantly disrupt global trade and demand. 

Tariffs targeting additional countries could amplify these effects, increasing risk premia and tightening financial conditions for emerging markets, especially those with weaker fundamentals. 

Geopolitical risks remain elevated, particularly due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has escalated with ballistic missile launches.

According to S&P, this uncertainty could heighten risk aversion toward emerging market assets and impact commodity prices.


Islamic banking in Kuwait and Oman stable amid favorable conditions: Fitch Ratings  

Islamic banking in Kuwait and Oman stable amid favorable conditions: Fitch Ratings  
Updated 28 November 2024
Follow

Islamic banking in Kuwait and Oman stable amid favorable conditions: Fitch Ratings  

Islamic banking in Kuwait and Oman stable amid favorable conditions: Fitch Ratings  

RIYADH: The standalone credit profiles of Islamic banks in Kuwait are expected to remain stable in 2025, supported by favorable operating conditions, according to a recent analysis by Fitch Ratings. 

The report highlighted that Islamic banking remains a significant sector in Kuwait, accounting for 49 percent of total banking sector assets by the end of the first half of this year.  

This follows a similar forecast from Moody’s in September, which predicted faster growth for Islamic financing compared to conventional banking. Moody’s cited rising demand for Shariah-compliant products and the inherent stability of Islamic banks’ net profit margins as key drivers. 

Fitch Ratings noted that capital at Kuwaiti Islamic banks remains adequate, supported by moderate growth and steady profitability in 2024 and 2025. 

“As for conventional banks, we view Islamic banks’ profitability to have peaked, and we expect earnings to slightly decline in 2025 following expected rate cuts,” said Fitch Ratings.  

The credit rating agency noted that funding at Kuwaiti Islamic banks remains strong, with 80 percent sourced from customer deposits. 

The report also highlighted a slight increase in the average impaired financing ratio among Islamic banks in Kuwait, rising to 2 percent by the end of the first half, driven by pressure from higher rates and slower financing growth. 

“The average financing impairment charges/average gross financing ratio increased slightly in the first half of 2024 but remains well below the pandemic level. Relatively high real estate exposure and concentration are key risks to the bank’s asset quality. Fitch expects asset quality to be stable in 2024-2025,” added Fitch.  

Oman’s Islamic finance sector expanding 

In a separate report, Fitch Ratings indicated that Omani Islamic banks are benefiting from favorable economic conditions, improving asset quality, stable profitability, and reasonable liquidity.  

The total assets of Omani Islamic banks stood at $21.3 billion by the end of the third quarter of this year, with the Islamic banking sector holding a market share of 18.7 percent of the country’s total banking assets. 

Fitch pointed to several factors driving the growth of Islamic finance in Oman, including increasing public demand, deeper distribution channels, the use of sukuk by both the government and corporates, and regulatory initiatives. 

“The Central Bank of Oman addressed a structural gap in October 2024 with the introduction of the Bank Deposit Protection Law, which would protect Islamic banks’ deposits,” said Fitch. 

“We expect this will aid confidence in Oman’s Islamic banking sector as the previous deposits insurance scheme only covered conventional banks’ deposits,” it added.  

The report forecast that Oman’s Islamic finance sector will surpass $40 billion in the medium term, with Fitch estimating its total value at $30.9 billion by the end of September 2024. 

According to the analysis, the Omani debt capital market reached $45 billion in outstanding debt by the end of the third quarter. There is no expectation of a significant short-term surge, as the government continues to prepay more of its debt using the budget surplus generated by high oil prices. 

Fitch also highlighted Oman’s growing sukuk issuance, which increased by 86 percent year on year to $2 billion in the first nine months of 2024, outpacing conventional bond issuance, which rose 53 percent to $5.6 billion during the same period.  

Fitch stated: “The Omani Islamic finance sector remains one of the smallest in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council),” and pointed out that it continues to face several challenges. 

These challenges include “the lack of Islamic liquidity-management instruments and smaller capital bases compared to the conventional banks,” which, according to Fitch, “could restrict their involvement in major government financing projects.” 

However, Fitch emphasized the sector’s long-term growth potential, citing recent regulatory developments and Oman’s predominantly Muslim population as key factors supporting future expansion.


Saudi Aramco maintains propane, butane prices for December

Saudi Aramco maintains propane, butane prices for December
Updated 28 November 2024
Follow

Saudi Aramco maintains propane, butane prices for December

Saudi Aramco maintains propane, butane prices for December

RIYADH: The Saudi Arabian Oil Co., also known as Saudi Aramco, kept its December contract prices unchanged month on month at $635 per tonne, according to an official statement

The company also maintained butane prices for the month at $630 per tonne.

Propane and butane are types of liquefied petroleum gas with different boiling points. LPG is commonly used as a fuel for vehicles, heating, and as a feedstock for various petrochemicals.

Aramco’s OSPs for LPG are used as a benchmark for contracts supplying the product from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region.

In winter, the demand for propane rises significantly due to its use in heating homes, which can lead to higher prices if supply struggles to keep up.

Such fluctuations are a normal part of the market and are expected during colder months. The increase in prices reflects the basic economic principle of supply and demand, with higher demand resulting in higher costs.


Mawani, Lloyd’s Register ink deal to streamline maritime operations

Mawani, Lloyd’s Register ink deal to streamline maritime operations
Updated 28 November 2024
Follow

Mawani, Lloyd’s Register ink deal to streamline maritime operations

Mawani, Lloyd’s Register ink deal to streamline maritime operations

RIYADH: The Saudi Ports Authority has signed an agreement with the UK’s Lloyd’s Register to unify and streamline operational and maritime procedures across Saudi ports.

The deal is set to enhance efficiency by developing comprehensive manuals and guidelines, including quality and environmental procedure manuals that align with International Organization for Standardization standards, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

The collaboration aligns with Mawani’s efforts to improve operational excellence at ports and strengthen Saudi Arabia’s connectivity with global markets, thus boosting national exports. As part of the partnership, the Saudi Ports Authority aims to double the container throughput capacity at its ports, from 20 million containers to over 40 million.

This goal is part of Saudi Arabia’s broader vision to modernize its logistics infrastructure under the National Transport and Logistics Strategy, which targets increasing the sector's contribution to gross domestic from 6 percent to 10 percent.

The deal also seeks to define clear responsibilities through a code of good practices, ensuring compliance with updated International Maritime Organization agreements.

Additionally, the partnership will help secure international certifications such as ISO 9001:2015 for quality management and ISO 14001:2015 for environmental management, further enhancing operational efficiency, customer satisfaction, and sustainability practices.

As part of the cooperation, comprehensive training programs will be offered to port employees, including courses on ISO standards, maritime certifications, and the latest inspection and safety protocols. Digital solutions and cutting-edge technologies will also be integrated to support sustainable operations and improve overall port competence.

Lloyd’s Register, a renowned maritime classification society established over 260 years ago, is one of the most prestigious organizations in the global maritime sector. The company operates in 81 offices worldwide and serves over 40,000 clients across the maritime and logistics industries.

 


Aramco launches global innovation award for robotics excellence at WRO 2024

Aramco launches global innovation award for robotics excellence at WRO 2024
Updated 28 November 2024
Follow

Aramco launches global innovation award for robotics excellence at WRO 2024

Aramco launches global innovation award for robotics excellence at WRO 2024

Aramco has partnered with the Aston Martin Aramco Formula One® Team and World Robot Olympiad to launch the Aramco Innovation Award, a new global honor recognizing excellence in robotics design and technology.

The award aims to inspire and reward young innovators who excel in creativity, problem-solving, critical thinking and technical skills.

The first Aramco Innovation Award will be presented at the 2024 World Robot Olympiad international final, which will take place from Nov. 28-30 in İzmir, Turkiye.

It will be given to the winning team of the future innovators category (senior age group). More than 5,500 teams and 15,000 students from around the world will compete for the award.

At the international final, 48 teams from 45 countries are eligible to win.

The prize includes an exclusive Aston Martin Aramco Formula One® Team Innovation Experience, which features a tour of the AMR Technology Campus in Silverstone, the home of British motorsport.

Khalid A. Al-Zamil, Aramco vice president of public affairs, said: “We’re excited to launch the Aramco Innovation Award as part of our dedication to developing future science, technology, engineering and math innovators. By partnering with Aston Martin Aramco Formula One® Team and World Robot Olympiad, we aim to inspire young minds to explore new possibilities in robotics and encourage the next generation of STEM careers.”

Luca Furbatto, engineering director, Aston Martin Aramco Formula One® Team, said: “We are thrilled to work with our partner Aramco to offer this insightful tour of our technology campus in Silverstone to the winners of the Aramco Innovation Award. It allows students the chance to see how a Formula One® team operates, and we expect it will help to inspire the next generation of designers and engineers through STEM opportunities.”

The Aramco Innovation Award celebrates young innovators who use robotics to address real-world challenges. By recognizing these achievements, Aramco and its partners are investing in future technology leaders who will help to shape the technologies of tomorrow’s world.

Claus Ditlev Christensen, secretary general of WRO, said: “Introducing the Aramco Innovation Award at this year’s WRO international final represents our ongoing mission to inspire young innovators. This collaboration with Aramco and Aston Martin Aramco Formula One® Team gives students an extraordinary chance to experience the latest technology. We believe these future leaders have the potential to drive the next wave of advancements in robotics.”