SINGAPORE: Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as worries that further possible US interest rate hikes could pull down demand outweighed concerns that a tropical storm off the US Gulf Coast may impact supply.
Brent crude was down 19 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $84.23 a barrel by 09:40 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude shed 24 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $79.86.
Investors await key US economic data later this week that will help determine the path of interest rates this year and next. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the US central bank may need to raise rates further to cool stubborn inflation.
Markets anticipate an 80 percent chance the Fed standing pat next month, Refinitiv’s FedWatch tool showed, but the probability of a rate hike in November is now seen at roughly 56 percent.
“It may be difficult for oil prices to maintain the strong bull trend (seen) in July at this stage. The US and European economies will face downward pressure in the fourth quarter until interest rates peak,” said CMC Markets analyst Leon Li.
“So there might be a concern about demand, which puts pressure on oil prices. And China’s economy still hasn’t seen a significant improvement ... Oil prices may remain volatile at this stage, and further increases in the future may require a rebound in Chinese data.”
China’s economic recovery has faltered on the back of a worsening property slump, weak consumer spending and tumbling credit growth, prompting Beijing to cut key policy rates to shore up activity in the world’s second-largest economy and oil consumer.
Prices since the start of the third quarter are up about 12 percent and 13 percent for Brent and WTI, respectively, following production cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies, known as OPEC+, said analysts at National Australia Bank in a Tuesday note.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Idalia lashed western Cuba on Monday and was almost a hurricane as it headed toward Florida. The storm is likely to cause power outages and could impact crude production on the eastern side of US Gulf Coast.
This week the focus will also be on the US personal consumption expenditures price index report that is due on Thursday and the August nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.
