Balance of Power: From Congress of Vienna in 1815 to new Middle East

The Napoleonic Wars between 1803 and 1815 marked a critical period of upheaval and instability across Europe, with Napoleon Bonaparte’s France aiming to dominate the European continent.

Following Napoleon’s defeat at the Battle of Waterloo in 1815, European leaders convened in Vienna to restore stability and reshape the region.

In that era, representatives from major European powers, including Great Britain, Austria, France, Prussia (later the German Empire), and Russia, attended the diplomatic conference known as The Congress of Vienna. The congress succeeded in establishing a new balance of power in Europe, which prevented any single nation from dominating the continent for around 99 years, as France had done under Bonaparte.

Henry Kissinger, a former US secretary of state and a prominent scholar in the field of international relations, noted the significance of maintaining a balance of power to ensure stability and peace, hopefully leading to cooperation and prosperity.

He has often referred to the Peace of Westphalia in Europe, signed in 1648, as a turning point in the history of international relations because it introduced the concept of balance of power as a central organizing principle for the international system.

Similarities in this significant concept of international relations can be seen today, particularly with the surprising China-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran considered by many as a new balance of power in the Middle East.

Beijing’s diplomatic approach in bringing both sides to the table has exemplified its newfound role in the emerging multipolar world, and it will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the region.

Many middle powers – countries that are not considered superpowers, including Saudi Arabia, but still possess significant economic, political, religious legacy, cultural, and military influence – see the current competition between the West and China as an opportunity to advance their national interests.

They may use this rivalry to leverage their positions on the international stage, secure favorable deals, and enhance their diplomatic standing by aligning with one side or playing both sides against each other to maximize their benefits.

The success of the deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran can be considered a victory for Beijing, as China has presented itself as a reliable partner that can be trusted more than the region’s traditional allies.

However, it is unlikely the new balance of power in the Middle East would have been possible without the recent policy changes adopted by Saudi Arabia’s leadership under Vision 2030.

Over the past few years, the Kingdom has discovered new sources of strength in various aspects, directly contributing to the success of the Beijing-backed Saudi-Iran deal. Since King Salman ascended to the throne in 2015, the Saudi leadership has worked to solidify the country’s international standing. This has helped create a new balance of power in the Middle East that will benefit and transform the region.

The initial outcome of the Saudi-Iran deal has been the reopening of diplomatic missions between Riyadh and Tehran, and more positive progress will undoubtedly be made.

The success of the deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran can be considered a victory for Beijing, as China has presented itself as a reliable partner that can be trusted more than the region’s traditional allies. And it marks the beginning of a new era for the region, with increased potential for cooperation and stability throughout the Middle East.

Both King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have invited Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to visit Riyadh, and it is likely that the trip will take place soon.

It would seem that the Iranian leadership has realized that the cost of confrontation and pursuing its regional ambitions has become prohibitively expensive.

As a result of the shifting balance of power in the Middle East and the increasing influence of Saudi Arabia on both the regional and international stages, engagement and cooperation would now appear to have become Tehran’s new policy direction.

• Nasser bin Hamed Al-Ahmad is a political analyst. Twitter @nasseralahmad3