UAE central bank retains emirate’s growth forecast of 4.3% for 2024

The Central Bank of the UAE forecast the country’s oil and non-oil gross domestic product in 2024 will grow at 3.5 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively. (Shutterstock)

RIYADH: A rebound in oil and non-oil activities is expected to help the UAE maintain its projected growth rate of 4.3 percent in 2024, the latest quarterly report from the apex bank showed.    
In its economic review report for the first quarter, the Central Bank of the UAE forecast the country’s oil and non-oil gross domestic product in 2024 will grow at 3.5 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively.
The CBUAE said its decision to keep the 2024 growth forecast unchanged reflects the stability and adherence to the agreed-upon production levels in the oil market, contributing to a balanced and sustainable economic outlook.
While the UAE’s central bank has kept the emirate’s growth forecast unchanged for the next year, it reduced the projection for 2023 by 0.6 percentage points to 3.3 percent due to oil production cuts agreed among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, also known as OPEC+.   
The CBUAE noted that the UAE economy continued to grow steadily during the first three months of the year, reflecting a robust non-oil sector performance. 
It expects the non-oil sector to continue to support aggregate output, albeit at a more modest pace compared to 2022.
Following a solid performance in 2022 with a growth rate of 9.5 percent, supported by an average daily oil production of 3.1 million barrels, the oil GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 is estimated to have moderated to 3.1 percent year on year following the agreements of OPEC+.  
The report said the non-oil sector in the UAE is anticipated to have experienced a slightly lower growth rate in the first quarter of 2023, following a robust expansion of 7.2 percent in 2022.
However, the CBUAE revised its non-oil GDP growth projection for 2023 upward to 4.5 percent from 4.2 percent.  
“Performance in 2023 and 2024 is subject to the evolution of the conflict in Ukraine, a faster than expected deceleration in global growth, further OPEC+ cuts or increases in oil production, and subdued production of other OPEC+ members,” the review stated.  
In 2022, the UAE experienced a substantial revenue increase of 596.8 billion dirhams ($162.4 billion).   
It represented a growth rate of 27 percent compared to the previous year, primarily attributed to higher total tax receipts and social contributions.