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Rising tensions between the Iranian regime and Israel have the potential to spiral into a wider conflict if not adequately addressed. There are several reasons for the heightened tensions.
First of all, although the Iranian regime attempts to distract attention from the direct involvement of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria, Tehran continues to increase its military influence there and use its proxies against Israeli targets. Israel last month carried out an airstrike in Syria on a location where Iranian officials were meeting. Iranian leaders were reportedly meeting to discuss developments regarding their country’s drone and ballistic missile capabilities in Syria.
The attack occurred on the same day that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed the Iranian government for an attack on a vessel owned by an Israeli in the Arabian Gulf. He said: “Last week, Iran attacked an oil tanker ... and harmed the international freedom of navigation.”
Israeli leaders may hold the opinion that Iran’s involvement in other countries in the region, such as Syria and Iraq, would indicate that Tehran cannot afford to respond robustly to the Israeli airstrike and risk another military war. But it is important to point out that the Iranian leaders are more likely to utilize third parties, such as its militia and terror groups, in order to respond to the Israeli attack.
As the last four decades have shown, the Iranian regime’s modus operandi is anchored in prioritizing asymmetrical warfare and deploying its proxies — such as Hezbollah, the Houthis and the Iraqi Shiite militia groups — in foreign territories to attack its rivals. The Iranian leaders are cognizant of the fact they have inferior military capabilities compared to Israel and its ally the US.
However, the most important source of tension between Israel and Iran is the status of Tehran’s nuclear program.
The theocratic establishment’s nuclear program is closer than ever to producing weapons-grade material and the Iranian leaders are not cooperating with the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. A December report by the Institute for Science and International Security stated: “Since June 2022, the IAEA has had no ability to monitor Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing or assembly rate, old or new centrifuge stocks, stocks of critical parts and material, or potential diversion of such stocks or manufacturing capabilities to unknown sites.”
The report added: “The IAEA has reiterated its concerns about the completeness of the information it has from Iran and its ability to accurately verify Iran’s declared centrifuges. With Iran accelerating its advanced centrifuge deployments, uncertainties will likely grow in the estimated number of advanced centrifuges produced in excess of those deployed, adding concern to the possibility that Iran will again seek to build a clandestine enrichment plant, using advanced centrifuges manufactured in secret.”
Tehran’s modus operandi is anchored in prioritizing asymmetrical warfare and deploying its proxies to attack its rivals.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
Although the Iranian leaders continue to insist that their nuclear program is designed for peaceful purposes, from the Israeli government’s perspective, the Iranian regime is pursuing a covert agenda to obtain nuclear weapons. The Israeli leaders’ concern is warranted due to Tehran’s history of clandestine nuclear activities. The ruling clerics decided, from the outset, to conceal their nuclear activities. For instance, Iran’s clandestine nuclear activities at two major sites, Natanz and Arak, were first revealed in 2000 by an Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran.
The NCRI also released critical information in 2017 showing that Iran’s nuclear activities had continued at the highly protected Parchin military base, despite the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal coming into effect. The group stated that a location at Parchin was being secretly used to continue the country’s nuclear weapons project. It said: “The unit responsible for conducting research and building a trigger for a nuclear weapon is called the Center for Research and Expansion of Technologies for Explosion and Impact, known by its Farsi acronym as METFAZ.”
In addition, some Iranian leaders have acknowledged that the Iranian regime’s nuclear program was always designed to manufacture atomic weapons. Former deputy speaker of the Iranian parliament Ali Motahari last year admitted: “From the very beginning, when we entered the nuclear activity, our goal was to build a bomb and strengthen the deterrent forces, but we could not maintain the secrecy of this issue.”
The former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, also said that his work was part of a “system” designed to develop nuclear weapons. He said: “When the country’s all-encompassing growth began involving satellites, missiles and nuclear weapons, and surmounted new boundaries of knowledge, the issue became more serious for them.”
In a nutshell, if the Iranian regime continues to defiantly advance its nuclear program, as well as ratchet up its military influence in Syria, tensions between Iran and Israel will continue to grow, which could cause a wider conflict in the region.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh