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It is a well-known fact that climatic conditions affect the pace of hostilities, and they affect both sides. The winner is always the one that is more ready to act in these climatic conditions.
We can say straight away that the winter months in the Ukraine-Russia war will be challenging from a military point of view. Low temperatures, limited duration of daylight, the need to create proper conditions for the presence of military personnel, the increased load on medical services and units typical for this time of year, etc., are added to the high dynamics of fire strikes. The combination of these factors reduces the pace of active offensive actions, but Ukraine has two significant advantages. The first is that we protect our homeland from the invaders, i.e., we fight on our territory with the full support of our population. The second is the real and effective support of the international community.
As for the enemy’s actions, we expect a possible continuation of missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine, in particular on civilian infrastructure.
The success of the Russian occupying forces on the battlefield is unlikely. Still, they can continue offensive actions to fulfill the orders of their military-political leadership, which does not count on losses and often does not recognize the realities of war.
We are preparing for any possible scenario and will do everything to liberate the territory of Ukraine from the occupiers, regardless of the season, weather conditions or anything else.
It is essential to understand the motivation of the opposing sides to assess the chances of one side or the other.
We are preparing for any possible scenario and will do everything to liberate the territory of Ukraine from the occupiers.
Col. Taras Dzuba
If we do not repeat the cliches of official Russian propaganda, which even the most ardent supporters of Vladimir Putin already doubt, the main motives of the servicemen of the Russian occupation army are the fear of disobeying orders and the desire to improve their material condition at the expense of participating in the war. Some of them are still hoping for a “trophy.”
We have a completely different motivation. The armed enemy came to our land with one goal — to take away everything we have: Our lives, our territory and our homes.
That is, we have no choice. Win or die. This is the main thing that determines our chances. For Ukraine, this is a patriotic, people’s war.
In other words, if the enemy believes that some “special military operation” is being conducted there, then for our people it is a real war and victory is necessary for the complete liberation of our temporarily occupied territories and the creation of guarantees for a future peaceful life.
These guarantees of peace are necessary not only for Ukraine today. Having unleashed aggression against Ukraine, Russia continues to deepen regional instability in Europe. This in turn will have negative consequences for the security architecture that developed in the world after the Second World War, the collapse of the Soviet Union and several regional conflicts in Asia and the Middle East.
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Based on this, it can be said that we have the chances necessary for victory over the enemy. No matter how difficult it is for us.
Currently, Ukraine’s economy and armed forces receive assistance from many countries in Europe and the world. Our state is very grateful to its partners for their humanitarian, military and economic aid.
The amount of assistance depends significantly on the partner countries and their capabilities. If we talk about quantitative indicators, the total military aid provided or planned for Ukraine by allies in 2022 was €41.3 billion ($44.7 billion).
The decision was made last month regarding another package of military aid to Ukraine from the US of $275 million. This includes aid for energy infrastructure, military support (including the training of specialists on the territory of other states) and humanitarian assistance. In addition, at least another $800 million has been earmarked in the US defense budget to support Ukraine in 2023.
Aid to Ukraine for 2023 of €18 billion from the EU has also been announced.
However, one should not get attached to these quantitative indicators. Aid to Ukraine is directly proportional to the level of the Russian military threat to European regional and international security. If this level of threat increases, then, accordingly, we expect an increase in the amount of aid.
Yes, of course, we are concerned about the level of international support for Ukraine in repelling Russian armed aggression, the prompt restoration of critical infrastructure facilities, the restoration and development of Ukraine after the end of hostilities, and the bringing to international criminal responsibility of all war criminals.
As for the possible weakening of the global economy this year, this issue is quite debatable. It is right to wait until after this week’s World Economic Forum in Davos. We can already say that, for example, last year was difficult for European countries, but almost all nations were able to find alternative sources to Russian energy and implement effective energy-saving programs. Green energy received another push for development. Not to mention strengthening the role of defense-industrial complexes by most countries of the world.
Last year was difficult for European countries, but almost all nations were able to find alternatives to Russian energy.
Col. Taras Dzuba
The consequences caused by the war, primarily economic, are felt by the citizens of countries all over the world and we are clearly aware that, the longer the armed aggression continues, the more resources it will require. At the same time, drawing historical parallels, it should be noted that if the civilized countries “leave” Ukraine as a victim for the aggressor as “pacification,” then they will merely postpone a more global conflict that will be provoked, as happened in Europe in the last century.
In response to all international initiatives to end the conflict and return to negotiations, Ukraine clearly states its position. We are ready for negotiations. And we always were ready. But only to negotiations that will actually end the war and provide security guarantees. This is a key condition officially presented to the international community, in particular to the aggressor state, by the president of Ukraine in the form of a 10-step program. We are ready for such negotiations.
Regarding the attempt to take a pause in the war in order to accumulate resources, prepare mobilized reserves and then resume aggression, we do not consider this as a proposal to end the war and, accordingly, it is unacceptable for Ukraine.
There is only one possible scenario — liberation of the whole territory of Ukraine. How will it be done?
Perhaps Putin will show a gesture of goodwill to the whole world and permanently withdraw his troops from the territory of Ukraine and refrain from further aggressive actions.
Perhaps the international community will find effective mechanisms to transfer the war to the political dimension.
It is quite possible that the declared lend-lease for Ukraine will work at full strength and we will have enough means to end this war with the victory of Ukraine.
In any case, there are plans of the military command to conduct operations to liberate the territories, and these plans will be implemented.
We can see that Europe has never been so united as it is today. The processes taking place around our state give a clear understanding that there is an urgent need to ensure the security of European countries bordering the Russian Federation. We see signals coming from countries that are part of the NATO alliance.
Europe has a common security model and resources, which provides an opportunity to respond to the threat in a timely manner and provide a decent response to the Russian aggressor and stop the advance of Russian troops.
And today, both for Ukraine and for Europe, there is simply no other choice than to hold out and win this war. Russia will not stop; therefore, if Ukraine does not restrain its aggression, an immediate military threat will arise for the countries of Europe.
After Feb. 24, 2022, the entire civilized world realized that the security model that existed for more than 70 years is no longer there.
There is a certain fatigue in world public opinion from the war, but any significant changes are possible only as a result of significant changes in the state of the war itself. Changes that will allow not only Ukraine, but also the international community, to consider itself safe.
- Col. Taras Dzuba has more than 30 years’ experience in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
This article first appeared in Asharq. It is part of a series titled “2023: A year of difficult questions.”