A new copper age is coming … see you there

We are entering a new copper age. As the world moves toward ambitious net zero carbon emissions targets, copper will take center stage as the key metal for our electrified future.

From wind to solar to electric batteries and more, the coming renewable energy revolution requires massive amounts of copper. Simply put, there will be no effective energy transition without the valuable metal first discovered and used in the Middle East at least 11,000 ago.

As the world’s top mining and metals companies and executives gather in Riyadh this week for the Future Minerals Forum, it is worth remembering the call made at last year’s event by Robert Friedland, founder of Ivanhoe Mines. He reminded the audience that the world had mined about 700 million tons of copper since the dawn of human civilization, and would need to mine about the same amount in the next 22 years to keep up with the green energy transition.

“We are heading for a massive deficit of global copper by 2030,” Friedland warned. He is not alone. A recent study by S&P Global forecasts copper supply shortfalls to begin in 2025 and last through most of the decade. “Unless new supply comes online in a timely way, the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 will be short-circuited and remain out of reach,” their report says.

Copper, the “metal of electrification,” is not only important to renewable energies, but also vital to our daily lives. When you switch on a light, drink clean water, scroll through your smartphone, drive your car, or engage in dozens of other daily activities, you are embedded in a world of copper. Much like fossil fuels, it is copper that makes our modern world possible.

Given its importance, “copper scarcity may emerge as a key destabilizing threat to international security,” S&P Global warn, “reminiscent of the 20th century scramble for oil.” China is the center of world copper, accounting for 47 percent of smelting, 42 percent of refining and 54 percent of global usage — but it is not the world’s largest miner of copper. That distinction belongs to Chile, with nearly 30 percent of production, though the South American copper giant has stumbled of late because of labor issues and water scarcity in mine projects. The major copper producers such as Chile, Peru, Democratic Republic of Congo, the US, and China account for about 56 percent of total copper mining capacity.

The world needs more copper producers to break ground on projects now if we hope to achieve net zero ambitions. Untapped copper and other metals resources stretch from Africa to the Middle East to Central Asia. The Arabian Shield geological formation, comprising much of western Saudi Arabia, contains considerable untapped metals deposits. The Ministry of Industry and Minerals Resources estimates that the Kingdom holds about $1.3 trillion of mineral wealth across 48 different commodities, including copper.

The minister, Bandar Alkhorayef, has been actively engaging with global mining companies to drum up interest in a targeted $32 billion of investment in Saudi Arabia. The ministry helped establish a new mining law that creates an attractive environment for international investors. In fact, the Kingdom just completed its first multiround auction for a mining license for a zinc and copper mine about 170km southwest of Riyadh. Saudi Arabia is already producing about 70,000 tons of copper in alliance with national champions such asstate-owned mining company Ma’aden, and international players. More is in the pipeline.

We will need all the copper production we can get, and it is appropriate that the Middle East should play an important role

Afshin Molavi

Other regional copper producers include Iran, Turkey, and Morocco. A 2021 annual mining survey produced by a Canadian think tank listed Morocco as among the top 10 most attractive places for new mining investment. Last November, the UK mining company Alteria said it had found “high grade copper and silver” in one of its Morocco sites. It is currently shopping for exploration partners.

We will need all the copper production we can get, and it is appropriate that the Middle East should play an important role. Most forecasts suggest that copper demand will more than double between now and 2050. S&P Global suggests it could nearly double by 2035. A slew of reports have warned that this unprecedented rise in demand will not be met, creating copper squeezes and shortages.

All of this reminds us of the key word in our energy future: transition. We are still living in a world of hydrocarbons. In fact, more than 80 percent of the world’s energy is driven by fossil fuels. Although much maligned, they have been a fundamental driver in the human development gains we have achieved worldwide over the past century. We will still need fossil fuels for quite some time, particularly in the poorest countries that may lag behind the energy transition.

It is vital, therefore, to keep investing in fossil fuel production. In fact, mining operations are energy intensive. It may seem ironic to use fossil fuels to mine for metals that will ultimately reduce fossil fuel consumption, but such is the real world nature of transitions.

The energy transition is coming, and though timelines may be ambitious, we are headed for a world with more renewable energy powering industry and homes, more electric vehicles, and less overwhelming dependence on fossil fuels. To achieve these goals, we will need a new copper age, and a good start would be to tap new mining resources, including a promising belt stretching from Central Asia to the Middle East to Africa.

• Afshin Molavi is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and editor and founder of the Emerging World newsletter. Twitter: @AfshinMolavi