The Republican Party’s challenges and foreseeable positioning
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In recent years, the Republican Party has faced several challenges and controversies, including internal divisions and a perceived shift away from its traditional conservative values. As a result, one has to wonder what the future holds for the GOP.
One of the most significant challenges facing the Republican Party is demographics. The US is becoming increasingly diverse and most Republican politicians have struggled to appeal to minority voters. Further, Republicans have failed to appeal to young voters. Generation Z Americans, those born mid-to-late 1990s through the early 2010s, tend to be more progressive and liberal than previous generations generally, and they are more likely to support the Democrats. By 2024, Gen Z and Millennials will make up nearly half of the electorate, replacing Baby Boomers.
In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden won a significant majority of the votes of Black, Latino, Jewish, Asian American and Arab American voters, while President Donald Trump received relatively low support from these groups. This trend has been exacerbated by the party’s hard-line stance on immigration, which has turned off many voters from immigrant communities.
This was evident again in the midterm elections in 2022, whereby Republicans had hoped for a “red wave” that would have taken control of Congress. However, this did not come to pass. Republicans gained a very slim majority in the House, while Democrats increased their majority in the Senate.
Gen Z voted in record numbers and made their voices heard on issues they care about — topics such as climate change that Republicans, in general, missed altogether. Nationwide, 18 to 29-year-olds voted Democratic by 28 points. In contrast, the Republicans’ shrinking base, mostly voters aged 65 years and older, only voted Republican by 13 points. Younger voters are concerned about the impact of climate change on the planet and are looking for political leaders who will take bold action to address this crisis. However, the Republican Party has largely denied the existence of climate change or downplayed its importance, which has led to a perception that the party is out of step with the concerns of younger voters.
In addition to these challenges, the Republican Party has also struggled with internal divisions. In the past few years, there has been a noticeable split between more moderate and traditional Republicans, who are willing to compromise on specific issues, on one side and extreme fringe members of the party, Trump followers now known as the Make America Great Again faction, who are resistant to any compromise.
This divide has made it difficult for the party to present a united front and has contributed to disunity within the GOP. And it will carry into the 2024 presidential election. Republican campaigns will likely focus heavily on issues such as crime, immigration and inflation, along with the emphasis on fiscal conservatism, limited government and individual freedom, which are key principles that have long been at the heart of the party’s platform. Further, in order to appeal to primary voters, candidates will focus on social issues, such as banning abortion. All of which do not resonate with general election voters, particularly independents who are in the middle of the political spectrum. A needed block of voters for any party to win national elections.
The return of former President Trump as a 2024 presidential candidate further complicates things for the GOP. Externally, Trump’s false claims of election fraud and his role in inciting the Jan. 6 insurrection carry a huge toll on the party. Internally, though his popularity has decreased, mainly due to his positions and actions after the 2020 elections, he remains the leading candidate. Presidential hopefuls such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has become a popular choice among conservative party voters, former Vice President Mike Pence, former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and many others are hesitant to challenge Trump for the nomination. If they do, they will find themselves in a similar situation to those who challenged him in 2016. Each of these candidates has to choose between running now and possibly getting burned by Trump in a primary or waiting for four more years, when Trump will likely be too old or too much of a loser to run.
There is a perception that the party is out of step with the concerns of younger voters
Dr. David Ramadan
International issues add to the complexity of the future of the GOP. While most Americans support financial and military aid to Ukraine, far-right Republican voters do not. This places Republican candidates in a tough spot, whereby in order to win the Republican nomination they would have to oppose financial and military support to Ukraine. This position would cost them in the general elections.
This complexity places the party of Ronald Reagan in a position of having to assure its allies across the Atlantic of its commitment to their security and the international order, a position now questioned despite the GOP’s long history, including that of the leadership of former Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush in winning the Cold War and securing Europe’s freedom from the threat of communism.
Despite all these challenges, the Republican Party is not without its strengths. The party continues to hold a significant number of seats in both the US House of Representatives and the Senate, the majority of state governorships, and it has a strong base of support among certain groups, such as small business owners and rural voters. The GOP also has a robust infrastructure of campaign organizations and political operatives, which gives it an advantage in elections.
Looking to the future, it is difficult to predict exactly what direction the Republican Party will take. However, it seems likely that the party will continue to face significant challenges as it tries to navigate the changing political landscape of the US. In order to remain relevant and competitive, the GOP will need to get rid of its extreme faction and find ways to appeal to a more diverse and younger electorate.
That can be done by accepting that climate change is real and the GOP starting to support compromise environmental solutions that promote a healthier planet yet are business-friendly. That can be done by modernizing on immigration. Immigrants are part of the American DNA and, throughout history, have contributed positively to the greatness of America. Opening up immigration will grow the economy and gain favor among voters. That can be done by avoiding social issues in campaigns, such as abortion and gay marriage. That can be done by actively supporting and protecting democracy worldwide, starting with Ukraine. That can be done by strengthening American friendships and relationships with Arab countries in the Middle East, opposing the Iranian threat, and fostering peace between Israel and Arab states. That can be done by returning to being a big tent party that welcomes all and is open to all.
Ultimately, the future of the Republican Party will depend on its ability to adapt to changing circumstances and to present a vision for the country that resonates with voters. While this may not be an easy task, it is essential if the GOP is to remain a viable and influential political force in the years ahead.
• Dr. David Ramadan is a former member of the Virginia House of Delegates. He is a professor of practice at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.
• This column first appeared in Asharq. It is part of a series titled “2023: A year of difficult questions.”
