GCC and Central Asia have the power to help keep the peace
https://arab.news/r8g5c
The world has become a new place in the past few years. Some are calling it the end of Pax Americana and the rise of China. Yet, should we continue looking at the world under this vision of great power competition? Where do middle powers or regional powers stand in this equation? I believe that unlike previous times, regional powers have more capacity to shape the global future. And, in this new place, the Middle East and Gulf countries have a bigger role to play.
Despite all the advances in humanity, society and technology, there is only one thing that makes great powers what they are: Their capacity to wreak havoc. It is the use of absolute violence and its legitimization that empowers their will with absolutism. As an example, during the Second World War, the West and Soviet Russia brought absolute destruction to face the horrors of Nazi Germany. This allowed the victors to build something new but even then West and East each had their separate models.
Both models faced off during the Cold War and there was a time after the crumbling of Soviet Russia when a full globalisation seemed to become reality. Yet, today, we are in a sense back to a division between East and West. The Ukraine can be seen as a demarcation line. I would compare it to the beginning of a boxing match when opponents size each other up with a few swings and punches. And there is a lesson that needs to be learnt quite fast — a few swings among super powers can cause absolute devastation and bring total destruction to the middle powers.
Russia is powerful yet it is no longer at the level of China or the US. It is engulfed in a much bigger conflict than it originally thought. It controls less of the conflict than it thought it did. Ukraine, with strong military support from the US, has blocked and stopped Russia for now. Yet, unlike most Western powers, Russia still has the will to execute absolute violence and this can erode the will of both the Ukraine and the West. The West needs to remember it allowed Russia to use this violence to defeat Daesh in Syria because it was no longer willing to do it, or capable of doing it. Yet, this change in dynamics has accelerated the possible confrontation between the US and China.
There is now a different strategic overview of the world. Indeed, Ukraine looks more like a first buffer or perhaps the first skirmishes between East and West; or in other words, the US and China. This is why middle powers need to pay close attention to the risks of the US and China moving from being frenemies (basically friends and enemies) to complete enemies. To avoid this and protect themselves, there needs to be an overarching strategy that goes beyond the Middle East region. And this strategy needs to include Central Asia. I strongly believe that stronger bonds and interaction between the GCC and Central Asia is a key factor in achieving this stability.
The situation in Ukraine is now beyond a short-term exit, yet it could have been avoided had Europe and Ukraine been capable of executing deterrence towards Russia while balancing US policies. This decade-long carelessness has built up to this catastrophe. It is nevertheless a difficult exercise and demands a focused and consistent policy, not only militarily but at the economic and energy level. A sovereign vision for Europe would have supported this transformation.
This is why it is important for the Gulf and Central Asia to develop these ties. They face the same dangers, understand the need for a balanced policy and are respectful of countries’ domestic affairs. It is why greater political and economic integration is needed between both regions. It is also an historic opportunity to build successful models while learning from the mistakes of others. This can lead to a region of prosperity and stability for all inhabitants.
There is also a more cynical view. Super powers can impose many things, especially when it concerns only one region, yet they will stop and think twice when it will impact two important regions. And so there is in fact more power for localization today. Once again this new place demands a chameleon-like attitude. And this means that the GCC and Central Asia can bring about solutions and encourage collaboration between great powers. The more that local powers become subservient to big powers, the bigger the risk of falling into this proxy confrontation, which will in that case inevitably lead to total confrontation.
Middle powers have proven their capacity to broker and mediate tough and difficult diplomatic problems. The role of Kazakhstan in the Astana negotiations, the role of Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the prisoner exchanges between Russia and the US, as well as Ukraine and Russia, are a testimony to this potential role. The recent focus on cooperation in higher education research and innovation during Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to Saudi Arabia and the UAE shows the opportunity for bringing greater prosperity to both regions.
Today, greater integration and coordination between the GCC and Central Asia can build a much-needed equilibrium where East and West can benefit. Great powers should encourage this for their own sake and for the world’s stability.
- Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.
