Poland strike highlights the need for quick end to Ukraine war

When missiles landed in southeastern Poland last week, killing two people just four miles from the border with Ukraine, there was a moment of collective panic; of fear that NATO could be dragged directly into the war if Russia was held responsible and Poland triggered Article 5, the self-defense clause that states that an attack on one member of the alliance is an attack on all members.
It happened on a day that saw a major Russian barrage of more than 90 missiles into Ukraine. Kyiv claimed the missiles originated from Russia, but NATO concluded it was likely a Ukrainian air defense missile, perhaps a Russian-made S-300. Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO secretary-general, said: “This is not Ukraine’s fault. Russia bears ultimate responsibility, as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.”
Calm heads prevailed in the end. But will this always be the case? It would have been all too easy for there to have been a hasty response, as many in the media were pushing for.
Ukraine still points the finger at Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky said that his top military commanders had assured him “it was not our missile and not our missile strike” that was the cause of the incident. In a video call to the G20, Zelensky claimed this was “a true statement brought by Russia for the G20 Summit.”
Some still speculate that NATO is not willing to publish the truth about the strike for fear of an escalation with Russia. What if Poland was able to invoke Article 5 and push them all toward war with Moscow?
The missile tragedy is just one reminder of how dangerous the Russia-Ukraine war is. Over the last nine months, we have had tacit threats of nuclear weapons, dangerous military activity around nuclear power plants and major attacks on civilian infrastructure. The global economy has been battered. Key foodstuffs such as grain and sunflower oil have been in short supply. What more is in store?
Both sides look to the winter for change. Will this be the time that a negotiated outcome can be devised? Ukraine may still harbor ambitions of pushing the Russian forces further back, since it recaptured the province of Kharkiv in September and has now retaken Kherson, forcing the Russian troops to the east of the Dnieper river. Russia may be expecting Ukraine’s backers to lose heart as the winter kicks in, gas supplies become stretched and inflation soars. Ukrainian commanders are wary of any move toward a ceasefire as it would give Russia’s forces a major opportunity to recharge their batteries and regroup.
Many wonder if President Vladimir Putin will be willing and able to present serious, viable proposals for talks. He is a proud leader at the head of a proud nation. He will feel humiliated at losing Kherson and Kharkiv, which are part of the four areas Putin formally annexed for Russia just two months ago. He had also barely recovered from the Oct. 8 attack on the Kerch Bridge that links Crimea to Russia.
Zelensky also has to be careful to not get carried away. Ukrainian forces have fought bravely, inflicting painful reverses on their Russian foes. Their losses have been huge, with both sides thought to have lost more than 100,000 troops. Millions have become refugees or been displaced. At present, Russia is targeting the Ukrainian electricity grid and power networks, as it has other areas of Ukraine’s infrastructure. It will be a freezing, even lethal winter for many.

It would have been all too easy for there to have been a hasty response, as many in the media were pushing for. 

Chris Doyle

The Ukrainian president also cannot count on eternal Western support. Economic distress and impatience will, and in fact already are, kicking in. The war effort requires constant supplies of weaponry and armaments. The incoming leader of the House of Representatives in the US is adamant the era of blank American checks cannot be guaranteed. Many European states may also be keener to boost their own defense spending.
But Russia is a big beast. An all-out victory, if possible, would come at a colossal price and how long would it last? A wounded Russia would nurse huge resentment. At one point, Zelensky ruled out any negotiations with Russia while Putin is in power, but is this realistic? Zelensky’s latest position on talks did not mention a veto on talking with Putin. This is wise. His demands have escalated from insisting on the withdrawal of Russian forces from the territories taken in February this year to including Crimea and the Donbas.
Zelensky, like Putin, will have to take careful stock of public opinion, balancing a keen desire to end the war and recover with the ambition of reasserting full independence over all of his country’s territory. How much does he really expect to get from Russia in terms of compensation? He may want Russian leaders to be tried for war crimes, but again this seems a long way off.
The G20 Summit in Bali gave some indications of the diplomatic climate. Putin did not attend. The majority were opposed to Russian aggression, but China, India and South Africa have adopted more neutral positions and have not imposed sanctions. Others may be candidates for a brokering role, such as Turkiye, Indonesia and even Mexico. Turkiye tried earlier in the conflict. Many still wonder if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can influence his Russian counterpart to pull back his forces.
The summit’s closing statement was a clear condemnation, deploring “in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine and demands its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine.” From the outset, Russian leaders have been surprised by the near-unity of European and other powers against them.
This war has gone on too long. It cannot be allowed to become a war without end, permanently crushing the global economy and keeping the world in a state of heightened insecurity. On the ground, it may be inching Ukraine’s way at present, but sadly it can all too easily escalate, as the missile strike in Poland showed. Major powers must not get complacent. This is why finding an elegant and effective exit is vital. It must respect Ukraine’s sovereign rights but somehow without rewarding the invader, while providing reassurance to Russians who are fearful of NATO and EU expansion.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding, in London. Twitter: @Doylech