North Korea’s surprise reservoir missile test

North Korea’s recent escalation has continued with some interesting technological feats and destabilizing behavior. The US and South Korea, plus Japan and other allied states, are ready for what Pyongyang does next. To be sure, North Korea still dazzles analysts.

When North Korea last week released pictures of its recent missile launch activity, one launch in particular drew attention. Kim Jong Un supervised the test launches of several nuclear-capable short-range ballistic missiles, including one that was fired from an underwater silo. North Korean soldiers, under Kim’s command, simulated the loading of “tactical nuclear warheads at a silo under a reservoir” and tested their ability to launch ballistic missiles from “underwater silos​.”

This is the first time that North Korea has claimed it is building underwater nuclear weapons silos, suggesting that the country is developing technology that will make its missiles more difficult to detect and intercept. Pyongyang is quickly learning such nuclear strategy “masking” games. This secrecy is part of the reason why it is impossible to come to a useful arms control agreement, despite past efforts. So, the cat is now out of the bag and North Korea is on its way to a potentially dangerous and spectacular security event. The short-range ballistic missiles being tested are for the country’s “first radius scenario,” which includes a strike on Guam.

Research shows that, while North Korea has mobile ballistic missile launchers and train platforms, both of which enhance survivability, a lake-based launch concept could offer another level of potential use, either as a deterrent or for offensive purposes.

The underwater launch is already causing debate about what type of missile was used, as this factor makes a big difference, although analysts do not know what is under the reservoir seabed. Was North Korea launching a short-range ballistic missile or a short-range submarine-launched ballistic missile? It has previously demonstrated its ability to produce underwater ballistic missile launch systems for test purposes, but this was the first time a missile system, regardless of type, was in active mode.

The country is developing technology that will make its missiles more difficult to detect and intercept

Dr. Theodore Karasik

Pyongyang’s launch from an inland reservoir — thinking about the deep-below-ground infrastructure needed to support such a test — is quite remarkable. Such a facility brings to mind a James Bond villain’s lair. Perhaps North Korea sees a reservoir launch as a better way to test a submarine-launched ballistic missile, but perhaps this first launch was a short-range ballistic missile. There is a difference and a first reservoir test is a data point that needs to be taken seriously.

Another added element is the tactical nuclear warhead test attached to this missile before its launch out of the reservoir. North Korean television showed pictures of members of the Central Military Commission watching the practice drill at the underwater facility. Research shows that the reservoir launch system is designed to be an operational weapons system, rather than some kind of test fixture.

Underwater facilities are very difficult to spot. The exact depth of the lake or reservoir and the composition of the water are key factors. While there are only a limited number of large reservoirs in the country that would be suitable for deploying these systems, an opponent is likely to have to devote significant resources to determining which bodies of inland water contained missiles and where exactly those missiles might be placed within any particular body of water.

Denial and deception tactics have become an interesting part of Pyongyang’s strategy. Empty launchers or other decoys could further complicate efforts to observe North Korea’s reservoir missile behavior. Together with the difficulties involved in locating the underwater launchers — or potential launchers — North Korea is developing an underwater shell game. The danger here, of course, is the opponent’s response. The US would need to strike all potential reservoir target locations to ensure the complete destruction of the lake-bottom missiles and their facilities. Importantly, the depths of the North Korean launchers would require specialized munitions for boring. The other, more ugly, option is a set of nuclear strikes in the ultimate gaming outcome.

The reservoir missile test was about North Korea’s demonstrated operational capabilities, rather than developmental tests. Its missile launches are specifically designed to generate the right type of response from the opponent, which is always predictable with joint US-South Korean missile tests and air force flexing. Their active deployment makes sense given the recent changes in Pyongyang’s nuclear doctrine. It is a serious escalation by North Korea.

Overall, sudden reservoir launches of various types of missile can be linked to other surprise moves, such as North Korea shelling into both sides of the country’s shorelines and flying squadrons of jet fighters near the lines of demarcation linked to treaties. North Korea is now breaking many agreements with South Korea and that is a harbinger of more activity to come, including the expected nuclear test.

• Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington. Twitter: @tkarasik