https://arab.news/rwzfh
Just a few days ago, there were visits by US President Joe Biden to Tel Aviv, Ramallah and Jeddah as part of his Middle tour. As an adverse response to this visit, the meeting in Tehran took place, with the Russian, Iranian and Turkish presidents, followed by the visit to Paris of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, the president of the UAE after the recent death of his brother, Sheikh Khalifa.
In a few days, there was the visit of US President Joe Biden to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, to Ramallah, Riyadh and Jeddah. As an adverse response to this visit, the meeting in Tehran took place, with the Russian, Iranian and Turkish presidents, followed by the visit to Paris of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, the president of the UAE after the recent death of his brother, Sheikh Khalifa.
We can already draw some conclusions from all this diplomatic commotion. There are things left unsaid: For example, with regard to Palestine, it is clear that the question is no longer a priority on the Middle East agenda. Of course, Saudi Arabia remains firm in favor of the creation of a full-fledged Palestinian state prior to the official recognition of Israel.
What is rather on the agenda are the developments of the Abraham Accords aimed at the immediate mutual recognition of Israel with the Arab countries.
The major new fact is the implicit abandonment, which has become, it seems, very likely, of the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement in Vienna. In the summer of 2021, the negotiations opened at the initiative of the US to return to the agreement from which former president Donald Trump had left. Parties seemed on the verge of an agreement acceptable to all.
However, the obstacles increased with the newly elected president in Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, being hostile to the agreement. Americans are divided on the issue of Iranian missiles, a topic that the government in Tehran does not want to talk about at all costs.
Israel has been fundamentally opposed to the Vienna agreement from the outset, and the Russians, busy with their conflict in Ukraine, will do nothing to facilitate a positive decision. It was under these conditions that Joe Biden arrived in the Middle East 10 days ago, declaring that the US was not going to wait forever for a response from Tehran that would not come.
A new Middle East is being revealed to us. Despite the efforts made by the US president, America is no longer the tutelary power that it once was. Trust is lacking.
Conversely, Russia has established itself as a regional power that must be respected after the vacuum left by Washington in the Syrian tragedy. Turkey has become one of the most active players in the region, and Iran a threshold power and tomorrow maybe a nuclear power, officially or secretly like Pakistan yesterday.
The logic of blocs or lasting alliances is over. There is a triumph of what the Anglo-Saxons call “catch-all diplomacy:” Everyone always has something to negotiate with others, but no one can ever rely entirely on anyone.
Despite the efforts made by the US president, America is no longer the Middle East tutelary power that it once was. Trust is lacking
Herve de Charrette
This can give surprising results. Erdogan went to the summit in Tehran thinking of obtaining support for his plan to settle in northern Syria and drive out the PKK-allied YPG Kurds; but he faced opposition from Russians and Iranians.
As his project is not welcomed by the Americans, Europeans and Syrians either, Erdogan will probably have to wait for better days or be content with more modest objectives.
This day-to-day diplomacy also has its drawbacks. Today no one has the means to force Tehran to give up its nuclear projects, which are progressing slowly but surely, giving it the status of a de facto power and worrying its neighbors.
President Biden, invited by the Saudi crown prince to take part in a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting, with the presence of Jordan, Egypt and Iraq, launched the idea of a new architecture of security for the region.
He was listened to politely but with some skepticism. Everyone will get what they can out of it, however, knowing that there are no more intangible alliances. What happened during this Middle Eastern diplomatic streak? Few decisions, but a general awareness of a world in full instability.
***
This article was originally published in French on Arab News en Français
***
It is now the turn of Saudi Arabia and France to meet. After Mohammed bin Zayed’s visit to Paris eight days ago and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s surprise lunch at the Elysee last Friday, Mohammed bin Salman has arrived to the French capital.
This is his first official reception by one of the heads of state members of the Security Council. It is therefore a meaningful event for the two partners who already know each other and have been able to establish useful links.
In the complicated game that is now being played out in the Middle East, it is a way for them to affirm their desire to be fully involved, one on behalf of the leading country of the Arab states of the Gulf and the Middle East, the other representing the most prominent country in the EU.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will receive in Paris what he expects without a doubt, that is to say the international recognition of his function and his person.
Macron will surely seek to convince him of the seriousness of the situation caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which it is not just a regional dispute, but a conflict of global scope in which Europe, which has its own role, must be understood and supported.
At the OPEC level, Saudi Arabia plays the leading role and can influence the volumes of oil produced and market prices. Similarly, at the G20 meeting in Indonesia in November, its voice will count and should weigh in the right direction.
For his part, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will seek to ensure that, in the unstable phase that the region is experiencing, partially neglected by the US, France and Europe will be at Saudi Arabia’s side, including in facing possible Iranian threats.
Macron, whose influence and status are growing in the Middle East, will put forward his project for a regional conference similar to the recent Baghdad conference, to allow the delegations of Iran and Saudi Arabia to advance concrete proposals for consultation, including establishing a possible road map.
Macron spoke about it recently as an initiative to be implemented before the Vienna agreement is thrown out by the Iranian Pasdarans. Saudi Arabia could become a decisive element of this project. It would also be very useful to talk about Syria, a subject over which Riyadh can help Paris to reposition itself usefully.
“The Middle East is in search of a post-American order,” headlined by the magazine Foreign Affairs in March 2022, could well be the real subject of the Paris meeting between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emmanuel Macron.
- Herve de Charette is a former minister of foreign affairs and minister of housing. He was also mayor of Saint-Florent-le-Vieil and deputy of Maine-et-Loire.
keywords