Russia aims to close ranks with its Astana partners

Close on the heels of US President Joe Biden’s trip to the Middle East, his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit the region next week.
It will be Putin’s first foreign trip, outside of visits to republics that were part of the former Soviet Union, since he ordered Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. The Kremlin's announcement that he will visit Tehran, where he will meet the leaders of Iran and Turkey, came after US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan accused Iran of supplying hundreds of drones to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Putin will hold a trilateral meeting with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as part of the so-called Astana Peace Process to end the war in Syria. The Kremlin noted that Putin will also meet separately with Erdogan while in Tehran.
Closing ranks with Tehran and Ankara will be the main priority for Putin during his visit to the Iranian capital. Understanding how Turkey, Russia and Iran are working closely together is important for many reasons related to the NATO summit in Madrid last month, the war in Ukraine and the Iran nuclear deal.
There are a number of areas in which Turkey cooperates, separately or together, with Russia and Iran. The first is the previously mentioned Astana Peace Process, which was initiated by the three countries and is focused on Syria’s constitutional system, political transition, security and resettlement.
The first Astana meeting was held in Turkey in January 2017 to facilitate UN-sponsored peace talks in Geneva. After the 16th meeting of the Astana process, which took place in Kazakhstan’s capital Nur-Sultan in July 2021, the Astana troika pledged to maintain their cooperation in Syria to help bring the warring sides together and find a permanent solution to the decade-long war.

Putin’s meeting with Raisi and Erdogan aims to counter Biden’s attempt to revive strained US relations with regional leaderships.

Sinem Cengiz

However, Ankara’s view on the conflict differs from that of the other two. While Russia and Iran are the key military and political backers of Bashar Assad, Turkey has provided military assistance to the opposition fighting against Assad’s forces and has conducted several military operations in Syria against the will of its two partners. Iran recently criticized Turkey for threats made by the latter of another operation in the north of the country.
But on a wider, regional scale, Tehran’s other main concern is that Ankara has been improving its relations with Iran’s rivals, in particular Israel and the Gulf states. Turkey’s dual-track rapprochement, combined with concerns relating to its operations in Syria, has created the perception in Tehran that Ankara might be part of a regional front that aims to confront Iran.
However, Turkey appears to be continuing to tread a fine line in this regional equilibrium and trying not to put too much strain on its “frenemy” relationship with Tehran. A recent visit by Iran’s top diplomat to Turkey tested the waters in Ankara amid the rapidly shifting balances in the region.
The second area in which Turkey is involved with Russia involves the conflict in Ukraine, in which Ankara aims to play the role of mediator. Erdogan has been trying to use his good relationships with Putin and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky to position Ankara at the heart of peace negotiations.
Kyiv has accused Moscow of stealing grain from territories seized by Russian forces. The Kremlin, which describes its activities in Ukraine as a “special military operation,” has denied the allegations. On Wednesday, Turkey hosted a meeting in Istanbul of Russian, Ukrainian and Turkish military delegations and UN officials to discuss the resumption of exports of Ukrainian grain from the major Black Sea port of Odessa, against the backdrop of a worsening global food crisis. Turkey played a key role in the talks and has been working with the UN to broker a deal, after the conflict caused prices of grain, cooking oil, fuel and fertilizer to soar worldwide.
Ukraine and Russia are major global suppliers of wheat, Russia is a large exporter of fertilizer, and Ukraine is a significant producer of corn and sunflower oil. Ankara has sent defense delegations to Moscow and Kyiv in an attempt to break the deadlock over Ukrainian grain.
Ankara also plays a part in Tehran’s relations with Western and Gulf countries. Last week, Qatar’s Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani visited Iran to meet his counterpart, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. Qatar, a key ally of Turkey, is attempting to host indirect, EU-mediated talks between the US and Iran as part of the efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, more formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The outreach by Qatar and Turkey to Iran is both symbolic and important.
Putin’s meeting with Raisi and Erdogan, meanwhile, aims to counter Biden’s attempt to revive strained US relations with regional leaderships. For Ankara, the US president’s Middle East trip holds other meaning.
Turkey currently operates double-track diplomacy. It continues to cooperate with Tehran on certain issues while also working to reset its relations with rivals of Iran. When it comes to Russia, Turkey is keeping the channels open with Moscow in relation to the Ukrainian-Russian war. But at the same time, Erdogan met Biden during the Madrid Summit and Turkey also signed a Trilateral Memorandum with Finland and Sweden during the summit in support of the two countries becoming members of NATO. This helped Turkey avoid losing further ground in its relations with the West.

• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz