Russian pipeline gas exports to EU fall 4.5% as supplies through Ukraine get hit

RIYADH: Russia’s gas pipeline exports through its main trade routes — an aggregate of Nord Stream 1, Ukraine transit, and Yamal pipeline — fell 4.5 percent on May 16, a recent market note issued by Rystad Energy said.
The dip is caused due to a near 30 percent decline in the flows via Ukraine’s gas transportation system.
The European benchmark for natural gas prices — Dutch TTF M+1 — surged 15 percent on May 12 as Moscow placed sanctions on Gazprom units that operate in countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia since the start of the Ukraine war, according to another note from RE.
The Russian government has barred 31 companies from conducting transactions and entering Russian ports including Gazprom Germania and Europol Gas -– the owner of the Polish part of the Yamal Europe pipeline.
The Yamal-Europe pipeline is seen as a potential alternative route to the Russian transits via Ukraine that has been put in jeopardy due to the ongoing war between the two countries.
Russia had previously halted supplies to Poland and Bulgaria to take action against “unfriendly” countries that refuse to make payments in rubles, according to Bloomberg.
Shipments via Ukraine, on the other hand, were also curtailed on May 11 after a key cross-border entry point was put out of action because of troop activity on the ground.
“Current gas contracts could be deemed null and void because of this decision and supplies could be stopped unilaterally by Gazprom, citing a regulatory order outside of their control,” Kaushal Ramesh, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy said in a May 12 note.
“There is historical precedent for Gazprom stopping gas flows as they did several times between 2005-2014,” Ramesh pointed out then.
While this situation is not probable, it will put pressure on Europe “to arrange for additional LNG, speed up plans for a buyer’s alliance and potentially consider demand-side measures such as gas rationing,” the analysis said.
The EU, however, has been taking precautionary measures to ensure appropriate storage levels. The current stock is expected to last through most of 2022 taking into consideration the possibility of a complete halt of Russian flows.
But the outlook for winter 2022 supply is now much more pessimistic, the note said.
As Europe and its allies in the US and the UK impose a wide range of sanctions targeting Russia over the war in Ukraine, they are yet to find alternatives to Russian gas that makes up 40 percent of their consumption.