Syrian migrants’ dreams dashed as sanctions batter Russia’s economy amid Ukraine war

DUBAI: When Samy packed his bags and left for Russia in 2018, he was convinced better days lay ahead. His home city of Damascus was on its knees, crippled by nearly a decade of war and on the cusp of the worst economic crisis in more than a century. There were precious few opportunities for him and other Syrian youth. Emigrating seemed the best option.

The charms of Moscow beckoned. Samy, who gave only his first name, had seen the swagger of Russian soldiers in Syria and heard stories about the lives they had back home.

He had also seen first hand how Russian President Vladimir Putin’s soldiers had helped secure the position of Bashar Assad, the Syrian ruler to whom his family remained loyal. Moscow was safe, or so he thought, and for a while it was — a refuge where he could save and send money home.

Then came the war in Ukraine. Over the past fortnight, Samy’s world and the lives of other Syrians like him who believed they had found somewhere secure to start over, has unraveled. As the value of the ruble collapsed, his savings were obliterated and, with almost every sector of the economy squeezed, his job was soon thrown into jeopardy.

An unprecedented global sanctions regime has crippled the Russian economy, shutting off oil, wheat and commodity exports, forcing the withdrawal of Western companies, isolating the country from the global financial system, and sending its currency into free fall.

Economists project that Russia will default within two months, as lines of credit and the economy itself grind to a halt. The Kremlin’s financial enablers are the stated target of sanctions. The flight of oligarchs’ yachts across the Mediterranean, beyond the clutches of European states eager to impound them, has been a source of amusement for many on the continent.

But the plight of regular Russians and the large community of Middle Eastern migrants living among them has been largely overlooked. As the economy disintegrates, Samy and other Syrians living in Russia face the second major economic collapse of their lifetimes. And this one is likely to be far worse than the first.

Speaking from his apartment in Moscow, Samy told Arab News: “I am facing a financial dilemma. I’ve been contemplating taking all my money from the bank, which doesn’t even amount to much, and keeping it hidden in my apartment. But then I start to think, what if I get robbed?”

It is not just Samy who needs that money to survive. “I have a family in Damascus depending on me. My parents are old. They were among the lucky few who didn’t feel the need to overly ration their fuel to keep warm. I was so proud of myself that I was able to keep them warm. I fled one war only to land in another.”

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union projected soft power across the Middle East and, at different periods, enjoyed close relations with Egypt, Syria, South Yemen and Algeria among other secular Arab states.

In the post-Soviet era, the Russian Federation has visibly expanded its political, diplomatic, military and economic footprint in the Middle East and North Africa since the early 2000s.

Under Putin’s leadership, Russia’s engagement with the Arab world has involved intensive energy diplomacy, growing grain exports, penetration of the regional arms market and deployment of armed forces in 2015 in Syria to prop up its key regional client, the Assad regime.

However, the outcome of the Ukraine war could yet deal a serious blow to Russia’s influence and standing in the Middle East. Images posted on social media last week showed long lines of Russian citizens queuing at ATMs to withdraw their savings or convert what they had into dollars before the currency depreciated further.

Millions also suddenly found themselves unable to make purchases using Apple Pay or Google Pay, both of which were cut off by the US tech giants, as more and more companies severed ties with Russia.

Russia’s central bank reacted to the currency crash by raising its key interest rate from 9.5 percent to 20 percent to prevent an inflationary spiral. But the banking and the financial system simply cannot cope with what amounts to a freeze of two-thirds of its reserves.

Elvira Nabiullina, the bank’s governor, told employees in a video address that they were facing an “extreme situation,” according to Reuters. As economist and author Anders Aslund put it in a tweet: “Putin has destroyed the ruble.”

And still the sanctions keep coming. US President Joe Biden has moved to cut ties with many of Russia’s largest financial institutions, saying the measure “exceeds anything we’ve ever done.”

Russia’s biggest bank, the Sberbank, along with 25 of its subsidiaries, accounting for one third of Russia’s financial assets, were on the list. Biden also prohibited American companies from doing business with them and froze the assets of Russian oligarchs close to the Kremlin.

The UK has placed limits on the amount Russians can deposit in British banks. It has also excluded Russian banks from its financial system and frozen their assets.

The EU, meanwhile, aims to target 70 percent of the Russian banking sector and state-owned firms and reduce its import of Russian gas by 66 percent before 2030. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said that the continent will no longer rely on a “supplier who explicitly threatened us.”

A long list of Western retailers, many of them motivated by threats of consumer boycotts, have chosen to halt their operations and close some of their stores in Russia. These include brands such as H&M, Levis and IKEA.

In a sign that the sanctions are already beginning to hit supply chains, Russians have taken to Twitter claiming some grocery stores in Moscow have placed limits on how many items they can buy at a time.

Meanwhile, in Syria more than half the country’s pre-war population is displaced, living either elsewhere in the country or having fled abroad. Those settled in Russia are presumed to have been vetted by both regimes. According to Russian interior ministry estimates, 9,100 Syrian citizens were residing in the Russian Federation by the end of October 2018.

Moscow has remained a staunch ally of Assad since the 2015 military intervention, despite the crippling sanctions and international condemnation leveled against his regime.

Reports have emerged in recent days of Syrian mercenaries traveling to Russia to fight in Ukraine. This comes at a time when Syria’s abysmal economic conditions show no sign of improvement. 

In recent years, many well-off Syrians moved their money to countries they considered more secure, notably Lebanon and Russia. Assad himself is thought to have lost an estimated $10 billion when the currency collapsed in neighboring Lebanon. His losses in Syria are thought to be on a similar scale. Time will tell what the ruble’s collapse will cost him.

The average salary in Syria is 70,000 Syrian pounds per month, the equivalent of $20. The UN’s World Food Programme estimates about 12.4 million Syrians are food insecure while 1.4 million are severely food insecure. Electricity and fuel are also scarce.

At the beginning of the year, Assad announced a five-day public holiday in an effort to reduce fuel and energy consumption. Both are now in extremely short supply and a spike in oil prices brought on by the Ukraine invasion and sanctions on Russia could even bring travel to a halt in much of Syria, where the cost of filling a tank eclipses what most people earn in a month.

For those like Samy, who thought their lives would get better in an ally’s land, it is more of the same. “I am beginning to think Syrians are cursed,” he said.