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US President John F. Kennedy once observed that, when written in Chinese, the word “crisis” comprised two characters — one representing danger, the other opportunity. The opportunities can emerge if traditional approaches and paradigms are questioned and challenged.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is permanently reshaping the European security order, challenging the traditional paradigms. The war poses several dangers to regional security and balances, but it also offers Ankara an opportunity to regain its international status as a diplomatic facilitator.
Turkey, a NATO member that shares a maritime border with Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea, had been offering to mediate for a while. This week it hosted talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dimitro Kuleba, the first ministerial meeting between the two countries since the invasion of Ukraine began on Feb. 24. Although the talks produced no breakthrough, they were still a significant accomplishment for Turkish diplomats. As Kubela said: “Turkish diplomacy has succeeded in what others could not do in bringing us together.”
Now Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to meet in Turkey, although this seems unlikely because Russia wants Ukraine to accept all its demands and Ukraine refuses to surrender. Erdogan will visit Ukraine soon for negotiations with Zelensky.
There are other participants in the race to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and a VIP delegation visited Moscow for an unannounced meeting with Putin. Bennett, the onlyforeign leader to meet Putin since the invasion, said he was in touch with both Russia and Ukraine and hoped to help broker peace. While he was there, Putin spoke to Erdogan by phone.
A few days later, Israeli President Isaac Herzog came to Turkey, a visit considered another diplomatic success for Ankara after years of isolation in the region. Herzog was the first Israeli leader to visit Turkey since 2008.
Despite its vital strategic location, Turkey is managing to avoid involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, and to preserve its neutrality.
Sinem Cengiz
Both Turkey and Israel have their own motives for defusing the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Israel is home to large Russian and Ukrainian diasporas. There are at least a quarter of a million Jews in Ukraine, eligible to make Israel their home. Turkey’s struggling economy doesn’t need any further disruption for the millions of Russians and Ukrainians who visit on holiday every year.
Moreover, the Russian invasion has uprooted more than 1.5 million people in what the UN says is the fastest growing refugee crisis in Europe since the Second World War.
This has also pushed some EU countries to ramp up efforts for cooperation despite differences on political issues. In this context, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s meeting with Erdoğan in İstanbul on Sunday is noteworthy. Greece and Turkey are NATO allies but disagree on issues from airspace to maritime zones in the eastern Mediterranean, migration and ethnically split Cyprus.
However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be the main issue at Sunday’s meeting. “In these difficult circumstances globally, the two countries, despite our differences, are faced with common challenges on a range of issues. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed the reality regarding security in Europe but has also highlighted the international community’s rejection of any form of expansionism and revisionism,” Greek government spokesman Yannis Oikonomou said before the visit.
Despite its vital strategic location, Turkey is managing to avoid involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, and to preserve its neutrality. While this posture has opened doors for Ankara to act as a facilitator — not a mediator — it has also become a topic of shared concern with countries such as Israel and Greece, with whom Turkey has had frosty relations in the past decade.
- Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz