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There is more to defense than a defense industry, although having one’s own defense industry — a solid and inventive one — can make a huge difference, especially during times when international relations and the world in general can be strategically fragile.
The elements of national power are key to the present and future security of any country. What are they? They are, put simply, the economic, educational, informational, diplomatic, cyber, cultural and military elements of a nation. Defense means a lot more than just weapons and people in uniform making strategies and plans, and the elements of national power are more than just about defense.
A nation’s economy needs to be strong, diversified, flexible, resilient and secure. Reliance on one or even a few major exports is a source of weakness. The Saudis have understood this for some time. Saudi Vision 2030 and other strategies have been developing to diversify the domestic and international economy of the country. There are increasing efforts and investments to diversify their vital systems, including their energy, water and industrial systems.
Given the income and wealth that comes from its oil and other resources, Saudi Arabia has a much better chance at the economic transformations it needs than most other countries. However, it must move from oil by using oil to transform itself. It may be one of the last oil producers standing after the energy transitions play out because it has some of the lowest costs of extracting oil on the planet. But that should not lull the country into complacency.
Much needs to be done to improve its national security by changing its economy and its economic security. Saudi Arabia knows all about the oil price rollercoasters of investment, budgets and employment from much experience. Getting beyond that will be a huge leap forward for national security.
Saudi Arabia has come a long way with the education of its people, especially since the time of King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz. It can do more, and its leaders know that. Part of the development of innovative infrastructure for national security is the development of technical and creative education systems that also focus on critical and strategic thinking.
Cyber is also a big part of defense and security — and resiliency. Cyberattacks can be even more dangerous than physical ones. This is especially so for a country that relies so much on energy and water systems that are based on supervisory control and data acquisition systems, which can be vulnerable to cyberattacks. The same could be said for food, transport, communications and other systems upon which an economy and society depend. I point out water and energy given how important they are to Saudi Arabia.
The development of the informational side of national power is another component. This must go beyond just information technology and cyber skills to include the development of innovation and invention systems within these. No country can stand still in this uncertain world. Future leaders and contributors need to understand that.
Diplomacy is another source of national power and strength. The Saudis have built up a strong diplomatic corps, but more needs to be done. They know it, and they can achieve it. Future leaders in the country must be educated and trained on what these elements of national power are and how all these elements of national power work together.
The US has worked with the Saudi military and others on such issues for many years. US-Saudi relations have been important for both countries since US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt met with King Saud bin Abdulaziz in the Suez Canal on the ship USS Quincy on Feb. 14, 1945. It would be best if that relationship continued and were improved upon.
Where does the defense industry fit into all of this? It can be a part of all aspects of what was mentioned above. Can Saudi Arabia build its own industry as stated in its Vision 2030 and in other policy pronouncements? Given it has been one of the largest importers of defense equipment over many years, it has the experience necessary to understand what is needed via imports.
The transformation to a domestic defense industry is not easy. Saudi Arabian Military Industries, the General Authority for Military Industries, the Public Investment Fund and other related ministries and government agencies seem quite tuned in to what is needed. Saudi Arabia’s plans to invest $20 billion in its national arms industry over the next decade or so can make a big difference.
The leadership wants to have half of its military equipment expenditures spent inside of the country. This will reduce its import bills. It could also help in the diversification of the Saudi economy and produce many jobs for Saudis. Many Saudis will be trained and educated in the industry. There could be spillovers from the military industry into the civilian economy as has happened in many other countries.
This could also help in the adaptation of some of the technologies to the specific environments and threats faced by the Kingdom.
Saudi Arabia is in a dangerous neighborhood. The Houthis regularly send drones and missiles into the country. The Kingdom is threatened by Iran and by potential terrorism. It faces physical as well as cyber threats.
The very nature of the threats to Saudi Arabia clearly leads one to understand that a defense industry is only a part of the solution, mitigation and countering of those threats. A defense industry does not stand alone.
The elements of national power are systems within systems connected with systems and nested in other systems. They should all work together. They all require strategic and critical thinking, improved education and training, a solid and resilient economy, a supportive society and culture, excellent diplomats, supportive international relations in the long run and top scholars, workers and thinkers.
Lining up the weapons is one step, and it is not even the most important when one considers all else that is needed.
• Dr. Paul Sullivan is a senior research associate at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies and a non-resident fellow at the Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council.