Marcos holds big early lead in Philippine presidential race

MANILA: The son and namesake of the dictator Ferdinand Marcos holds a commanding lead in the Philippine presidential race, the latest poll has shown, but analysts say it’s still too soon to predict the election outcome.

In the latest Pulse Asia survey released on Sunday, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. was chosen by 60 percent of the January poll’s 2,400 respondents.

Incumbent Vice President and opposition leader Leni Robredo came second with 16 percent, followed by boxing star Manny Pacquiao and former actor and Mayor of Manila Francisco Domagoso, both of whom tied for third with 8 percent each.

“(Marcos Jr.) enjoys the lead in all geographic areas and socio-economic groupings,” Pulse Asia said in a statement.

More than 67 million Filipinos are expected to cast their votes on May 9 to elect a new president, vice president, around 300 lawmakers and 18,000 local government officials, including provincial governors and town mayors. Hustings for the three-month campaign season officially started last week.

“It’s still too early to say that (the survey results) would translate to a sure victory on May 9,” Ramon Casiple, political analyst and co-founder of Manila-based think tank Novo Trends PH, told Arab News.

Casiple said previous elections showed the unpredictable shifts in Philippine politics, such as the case of Rodrigo Duterte in 2016, who lagged behind in the polls, only to rise to the top two weeks before the elections and eventually become president.

Dindo Manhit, political analyst and president of Filipino think tank Stratbase ADR Institute, agreed. “But if this is still the number by the end of March, that’s a different story. That means momentum,” Manhit told Arab News.

Marcos Jr.’s father, who was overthrown in 1986, ruled the Philippines for more than two decades, during which he took control of the country’s courts, business, and media after declaring martial law in 1972. His rule has been described as one of the darkest chapters in Philippine history.

Marcos’ running mate, Sara Duterte-Carpio, who is daughter of incumbent President Duterte, was also top choice for vice president with a 50 percent lead in the polls. In the Philippines, the president and vice president are elected separately.

Manhit said Marcos’ lead is because supporters of his family and Duterte, who has a solid base since winning the presidency in 2016, “have consolidated.”

The latest survey was conducted before the Philippines poll commission decided last week to dismiss a series of complaints seeking to disqualify Marcos and controversies over the candidate’s absences in media interviews and forums. The January poll also took place before the official start of the campaign season.

Experts are anticipating shifts in the upcoming polls, with Manhit saying that support of the Catholic Church and civil society organizations toward specific candidates might make a difference in the Catholic-majority country.

However, Marcos’ current stronghold should not be underestimated.

“He is formidable. Everybody needs to catch up, work doubly hard,” Manhit said.