Pakistan’s annual inflation rose to two-year high in January

A shopkeeper waits for customers at a market in Karachi, Pakistan on January 10, 2022. (AFP/File)

• Food and energy prices contributed to the hike amid rising international commodity prices and transportation costs 
• Electricity price increased 56.20 percent, liquefied hydrocarbons 53.35 percent as compared to last year, official stats show 

KARACHI: Pakistan’s inflation rate, driven by energy and food prices, peaked to a two-year high of 13 percent in January, the country’s statistics bureau said on Tuesday, with analysts pointing to its financial implications for the poor.
The inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 13 percent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in January 2022 as compared to an increase of 12.3 percent in the previous month and 5.7 percent in January 2021. Inflation was previously recorded at its highest 14.6 percent in January 2020.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased by 0.4 percent in January as compared to a decrease of 0.02 percent in the previous month as well as in January 2021, according to the data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
Prices of food products, such as cooking oil increased by 54.33 percent, vegetable ghee 47.4 percent, mustard oil 46.68 percent and pulse masoor 41.3 percent, when compared with the corresponding month of the previous year, i.e. January 2021.
“Food inflation was the highest recorded since April 2021 when it rose to 15.9 percent. We attribute this to higher transportation cost and higher global food & commodity prices,” a report by Karachi-based brokerage house Topline Securities said.
Housing, water, electricity and fuel index, which contribute around 24 percent weightage to the CPI, rose by 15.5 percent in January 2022, compared to an increase of 16.6 percent in December 2021.
The price of electricity increased by 56.20 percent, liquefied hydrocarbons by 53.35 percent and motor fuel by 36.22 percent, when compared with the same period of last year.
The inflation rate was 128 percent higher than the previous year’s 5.7 percent, mainly due to the global impact of commodity prices, including food and energy products, and oil and gas, in the international market.
Analysts point to financial implications of higher inflation for the poor class, which has already been under immense pressure.
“Poor and lower middle class will remain under stress due to high inflation,” Muhammad Sohail, the Topline Securities chief executive officer, told Arab News. 
“With rising oil prices and expected increase in power tariffs, we anticipate monthly CPI inflation to remain in the range of 11-13 percent during the remainder of FY22.”
The government expects the inflationary trend to continue to remain in double digits in the coming months.
“The central bank in its monetary policy had said that inflation for the next three months is likely to remain elevated but improved balance-of-payment numbers will determine central bank’s next move for policy rate changes,” Samiullah Tariq, research director at the Pakistan-Kuwait Investment Company, told Arab News.
This week, Pakistan is expecting the revival of $6 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan program. It would make available $1,059 million that would bring total disbursements to Pakistan to about $3,027 million and help unlock significant funding from bilateral and multilateral partners.
“Going forward, IMF stability program and global oil prices will remain important for Pakistan,” Sohail said.
The Pakistani central bank has forecasted that the inflation rate for the current fiscal year would range between 9 percent and 11 percent.