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Last year’s Jan. 6 riots on Capitol Hill are widely seen as the nadir of US democracy in modern times, yet there is growing speculation of worse to come if a populist such as Donald Trump wins the presidency again.
It is perhaps not surprising that partisan rivals such as Hillary Clinton frequently make this claim. However, concerns are growing well beyond the political class, with three retired US military generals recently voicing their fears “about the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election and the potential for lethal chaos inside our military,” adding that “we are chilled to our bones at the thought of a coup succeeding next time.”
It is not just many in the US who worry about the future of American democracy. A Canadian political scientist, Thomas Homer-Dixon, warned this month of the possibility of a right-wing dictatorship in the US by 2030, adding that Ottawa should be scenario planning around this chilling prospect given the impact it would have for other countries.
Incredible as Homer-Dixon’s assertion may appear, he rightly highlights that the US has an increasingly fragile democratic system that may not be immune to collapse from populist onslaught. While it is most unlikely this could happen before 2025, when Joe Biden’s current term of office ends, Homer-Dixon argues that the US political and social landscape is “flashing with warning signals,” with increasingly polarized ideologies, and the fact that it is “armed to the teeth,” given the proliferation of guns.
Amid the rancor and discord, a critical question for Biden is how he can best seek to bring political conciliation to a country that is more divided than at any time in living memory. He has promised to try to bind the wounds of division from the 2020 campaign with a project of national growth and renewal, including outreach to those many millions of Trump supporters who still claim that their man was cheated out of reelection.
To his credit, Biden appears to recognize the deeper historical roots of Trump’s success in tapping into popular anger with the political establishment, especially from discontented white working-class voters who are angry on numerous fronts, including significant increases in income inequality since 1980.
The raw partisan animosity facing Biden means that his success, or failure, in the White House now depends in large part on the skill with which he configures his administration
Andrew Hammond
Before 2016, these inequalities had only limited political consequences, yet income and status differences are significant sources of political change. Trump demonstrated not just in 2016, but in 2020 too, that these factors can be mobilized by insurgent politicians operating either within parties or outside them — as they have in the past, for instance in the 1830s by Andrew Jackson, who earned the nickname “King Mob.”
The raw partisan animosity facing Biden means that his success, or failure, in the White House now depends in large part on the skill with which he configures his administration and projects the remaining moral authority emanating from his election victory. The presidency provides him with at least two broad powers: That of setting governing themes for his administration, including renewal and unity; and that of creating interactive coalitions among the public and within Congress in support of the administration’s legislative program, including the Build Back Better bill.
To make the presidency work best for himself and for the country, Biden will have to show rapidly and with confidence that he knows how to use these powers even better than he did in 2021. The first opportunity this year to give expression to such engagement and reconciliation will come in his State of the Union address in the coming weeks. This will set the scene for the next 12 months, which might be the last window of opportunity for his presidency to get significant legislation passed in Congress, given the strong possibility of Republicans retaking one or both chambers in November’s midterms.
What Biden badly needs to do in this big speech is begin to establish stronger governing themes for his presidency, including striving for greater consensus and the healing of frayed relations, which command popular understanding and support, while affording him latitude for political development and maneuver.
To maximize his prospects of success, Biden also needs to simultaneously cultivate stronger relationships with more Republicans in Congress — a tough challenge, but one he should do his utmost to meet.
Despite the formidable political problems that Biden faces, the presidency can still — in suitably skilled hands — offer the potential for national renewal and unity. This will be a monumental test for the US leader and his administration, given the international challenges he also faces, and he will be most effective if he and his congressional colleagues avoid overreach and work closely together to try to forge the nucleus of a governing agenda that brings the country together, rather than further apart as under his predecessor.
• Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.