Saudi Arabia were handed a tough but passable route to the 2022 World Cup on Thursday as the draw for the third round of qualification was made in Kuala Lumpur.
If the Green Falcons are going to finish in the top two in Group B and win an automatic place in Qatar, then they are going to have to finish above one of Japan and Australia while keeping China, Oman and Vietnam at bay.
While it is debatable as to which of the two groups are harder on paper, surely coach Herve Renard would have preferred to be in the largely West Asian Group A along with Iran, South Korea, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Instead, Saudi Arabia will face a lot of traveling — to Tokyo, Sydney, Beijing and Hanoi — to take on teams less familiar and venues more intimidating.
At the moment, Japan are clearly the best in Asia, and it would be a huge shock if the Samurai Blue don’t take one of the two automatic places. It means that Saudi Arabia are likely to be fighting it out with Australia for the second spot, and there are some reasons to be positive.
The first is the kind schedule. Assuming that the games, due to be played on a home and away basis, take place as planned (still a big assumption to make given the travel restrictions and quarantine rules still in place in many countries around Asia), then Saudi Arabia have a good start.
It is at home against Vietnam, the lowest-ranked team in the group, on Sept. 2, and it is followed five days later with a short trip to Oman. These two games present a fantastic opportunity to get six points on the board within the first week of qualification.
Anything less than that will be a disappointment. Vietnam are improving and are harder to beat than before but are still relatively inexperienced at this level and especially so at playing tough teams in West Asia. The Omanis are no pushovers either, but if that first game in Muscat ends in a victory — and Oman will be rushing back from Japan to host — then the platform is there for Saudi to make an assault on the top two.
In October, there are two more home games and more opportunities for points. Anything that can be taken from Japan will be a bonus, but the arrival of China five days later is another must-win. Again, China will have been in action at home five days earlier and not be able to enjoy their usual long pre-qualifier training camp. Team Dragon are improving under new coach Li Tie and have naturalized some of the Brazilians who have been playing in their league, but they don’t usually perform well on trips to West Asia, and this is another great opportunity for the hosts.
After four games then, the minimum target should be nine points, and this will likely mean that Saudi Arabia will go to Australia in November as one of the top two teams. This could be the crucial game in the group.
The Socceroos have qualified for the last four World Cups but are vulnerable. The second round was a stroll, but they weren’t tested much at all, and while the squad looks solid it does lack a cutting edge and the star power of the past. This will be a test for Renard. The Frenchman has an excellent coaching resume with two African Cup of Nations titles with different nations. He also took Morocco to the 2018 World Cup where, despite exiting early, the team impressed in a tough group. If he can engineer a result in what is going to be a physical test Down Under, then the Saudis will head into the second half of the draw in good spirits.
Another stroke of fortune is that five days later, the team plays in Vietnam, which is on the way home from Australia. Here, the test will be different — one of a technical team backed by a passionate crowd — but it may be that the Vietnamese are already playing for pride by this stage.
The last four rounds are a little more difficult, though at least Saudi Arabia takes on Oman at home before heading to Japan five days later.
It will probably all depend on the last two matchdays. There will be a tough trip to China on March 24 and then a rush back home to host Australia for what could be the decider. The chance to qualify for the World Cup in Riyadh in front of 60,000 delirious fans should spur on the team. It is a tough route, but if the start is solid then there is no reason why Saudi Arabia can’t return to the global stage.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will have to finish above either Iran or South Korea to go to a second World Cup but will, at least, have minimal travel in taking in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. All the venues and opponents will be familiar, but that doesn’t make it easy, and the recent improvements seen under coach Bert van Marwijk will have to continue if the UAE can find the consistency needed.
But even a third-place finish does not mean the end, with the two teams in that position meeting each other in a play-off. The winner will then take on a nation from another confederation — likely to be Concacaf — for the right to go to Qatar. It is going to be quite a ride.
