Greek-Turkish relations: Is thaw setting in?

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu confirmed he will visit Athens on Monday for talks with his Greek counterpart in a bid to prepare for a possible meeting between the countries’ top leaders. (File/AFP)

• FMs from both countries will try to lay the groundwork for a possible meeting between Erdogan and Mitsotakis
• Countries embroiled in disputes over territorial claims in the Aegean Sea and energy drilling activities in the Eastern Mediterranean

ANKARA: Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu confirmed he will visit Athens on Monday for talks with his Greek counterpart in a bid to prepare for a possible meeting between the countries’ top leaders.
If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis sit down for a meeting, it is likely to take place on the sidelines of the NATO summit on June 14 in Brussels.
The delegations of the Turkish and Greek defense ministries held their fourth round of meetings on confidence-building measures this past week.
The foreign ministers of the two countries had a war of words on April 15 in Ankara during a joint press conference over their competing interpretations of the maritime law in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean Seas. Greece accused Turkey of infringing on Greek sovereignty in its drilling operations and Turkey blamed Greece for pushing back migrants to Turkish shores.
The overlapping territorial claims of the two countries in the Aegean Sea, disagreements over ethnically split Cyprus and Turkey’s controversial energy drilling activities in the Eastern Medetrterian led to a standoff between Ankara and Athens last year.
Eduard Soler, an expert on Turkey and geopolitics at the Barcelona Center for International Affairs, thinks that such a high-level meeting between the two countries is the key message as it shows the willingness of both parties to engage in dialogue instead of pursuing unilateral actions, unlike the case in 2019 and 2020.
“I do not expect major substantive progress, but the very existence of these meetings is a positive development, contributing to prolonging the current phase of appeasement,” he told Arab News. 
“But unless we move from talking to something else, we will not be able to leave behind this phase of ‘fragile appeasement’ to enter something more sustainable and productive. But we are not there yet.”
On whether the Cyprus conflict will be part of the bilateral agenda, Soler thinks that “if not on the agenda, it is on everyone’s mind.”
He said tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean intersect and that there are fewer chances of positive openings on Cyprus.
“Short-term tensions have already significantly declined,” he said. 
“My concern is how to avoid the crisis we have agreed to postpone. This will require trust, avoiding mistakes, refusing the seduction of short-term political and electoral calculations on both sides, borrowing perceptions and interests of extra-regional actors. Because there is certainly a lot of fatigue on both sides.”
The UN-sponsored Geneva meeting on April 27-29 failed to push for formal settlement talks on the Cyprus conflict, while the parties agreed to meet under UN auspices in the coming months.
Despite the strong words between the two foreign ministers at the meeting, the two sides have expressed their willingness to promote a positive economic and trade agenda. They also agreed to work for the next steps in this area, according to Dr. Charles Ellinas, a senior fellow at the Global Energy Center of Atlantic Council.
“The fact that between then and now there have not been any flare-ups between the two sides is helpful,” he told Arab News.
“As a result, I expect the forthcoming discussions to be more business-like, covering all bilateral issues from the resumption of the exploratory talks to the regional and maritime issues and the next steps regarding resumption of the negotiations on Cyprus.”
However, Ellinas noted that maritime disputes remain unresolved and tension remains, while both countries still plan to hold naval exercises despite this meeting.
As Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez recently announced that Turkey may conduct more drilling for gas in the Eastern Mediterranean, it is still unclear whether Turkey will soon initiate its drilling activities in the controversial waters. 
“Time will tell, but we are hopeful. We evaluate that there is a potential,” Donmez said.
Turkey has already opened eight boreholes in the region, but they were not significant in the economic sense. EU leaders in March also warned Ankara of potential sanctions if it relaunches energy exploration in the contested Mediterranean waters.
“A constructive outcome from the forthcoming meetings, even without any breakthroughs, is in the interests of both countries, especially given the ravaging effects of COVID-19 on their economies. Regaining confidence requires restraint and avoidance of provocative rhetoric and actions,” Ellinas said.