No solution to Syrian crisis with Assad in power: Experts

LONDON: A decade since the outbreak of the war in Syria, experts have warned that there can be no resolution to the crisis while President Bashar Assad remains in power
“If the Assad family and entourage are still ruling Syria four years from now, Syria will be even immeasurably worse than it is now,” Frederic Hof, former US special envoy to Syria, said at an event hosted by London-based think tank Chatham House and attended by Arab News.
“This is hard to imagine because we’re already looking at what is for all practical purposes a failed state. We’re seeing Syrians being thoroughly victimized across the board by the (Assad) family and its entourage.”
Because of this, Hof denounced the idea of normalization with the Assad regime, and urged the Biden administration to “make a clear, unmistakable statement that full political transition remains at the basis of American policy toward Syria.”
Hof said in order to solve the Syrian crisis, external actors such as Iran must be accounted for, and their role in perpetuating the conflict addressed.
Tehran has been a long-time supporter of the Assad regime, either directly or through its proxy militias in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, as part of its pursuit of regional hegemony.
“Iran is still pursuing the same ultimate aim in Syria that it has been pursuing since the 1980s,” said Lina Sinjab, BBC Middle East correspondent.
“The leadership of Bashar Assad, which isn’t as strong as his father, has allowed (Iran) to have more control over the territory and the state itself. The Iranians play the game of time and plan for years and years to come — we can see Lebanon as an example with Hezbollah, where they are today and how they control the country.”
Much like in Lebanon, in order to exert control over Syria, Iran has been putting “men on the ground” for years — “not only the men that they brought in during the civil war, but the men that they planted over years, and the men whose loyalty they have bought over the years,” Sinjab said.
But while Iranian involvement helped prop up the Assad regime during the height of the war, Tehran’s ongoing involvement has caused tension in Syrian society.
“There have been efforts (by Iran) to enter Alawite towns to try to build shrines and develop Shiite influence. They’ve really angered the secular Alawites, who are increasingly looking to Russia, not Iran, for support,” said Sinjab.
“That goes for the majority of Syrian society. Although the (Assad) regime brought in Iran for support and to protect its power, the community inside Syria on both (opposition and regime) sides don’t like the religious agenda that Iran is coming with.”
Wafa Mustafa, a Syrian activist and journalist whose father was among the thousands of people disappeared by the regime, said there can be no future for Syria while the status quo persists.
“Any solution for Syria that doesn’t start with the release of all detainees, the end of ongoing detention and the prosecution of all those involved in war crimes won’t be sustainable,” she said.
“I believe that there’s no chance for Syria and for Syrians to have a better future or escape the tragic reality while Assad stays in power.”
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, 593,000 people have been killed in the war since its 2011 inception, when protests morphed into calls for regime change after Assad and his forces cracked down violently on peaceful demonstrators.
The war has seen extensive outside involvement from powers seeking to influence events on the ground, not least from Russia, Turkey and Iran — all of whom have been directly involved in the fighting.