Countries must prepare for virus’ effects on population size

Throughout history, disease outbreaks have decimated populations. The Black Death, or the bubonic plague pandemic, ravaged Europe and Asia during the 14th century and is estimated to have killed more than 60 million people. The 1918 Spanish Flu outbreak caused 50 million deaths worldwide and is estimated to have decreased gross domestic product per capita by about 6 percent from 1918 to 1921. Some researchers argue that such losses of human capital have negatively impacted economic activity for years after.
Over the past year, demographers have witnessed the calamitous impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on population demographics, as observed in fewer births, decreased overseas migration, and higher mortality rates. A healthy balance of these three factors is essential in maintaining a productive economy, while ensuring a high quality of life. Nonetheless, since the pandemic’s onset, job and income losses have forced couples to defer the decision to have babies. With restrictions in place, many people have been unable to form new relationships, while some have got divorced. Married couples have also faced reduced access to fertility treatments. All these factors have contributed to reduced fertility rates in some countries.
Talented people have delayed their plans to move abroad to study or work amid the uncertainty regarding travel restrictions, availability of remote education or work, and reduced employment opportunities. This has caused a reduction in skilled labor supply in a number of important sectors, as well as forcing women to exit the labor market due to care duties. Furthermore, the rising number of deaths has resulted in losses in economic output and, perhaps more importantly, colossal losses of irreplaceable human lives.
The Australian government has been closely monitoring the pandemic’s impact on its population demographics and has projected that its 2031 population will be 4 percent smaller (1.1 million fewer people) than previously predicted as a direct result of the pandemic. Its population will also be, on average, older because of there being fewer births and less migration into the country.
Japan, meanwhile, is facing a population crisis, which has been further exacerbated by the current pandemic. Demographers estimate that its population will decrease from 126 million in 2019 to less than 53 million by the end of the century. In December 2020, the country’s Health Ministry reported the demographic impacts of the pandemic: A 5.1 percent decline in reported pregnancies for the first 10 months of 2020, with virus hotspots facing sharper drops — 9.1 percent in Tokyo, 8.1 percent in Hokkaido and 7.6 percent in Osaka. Marriage rates also fell by 13 percent during the same period.
It is, thus, pivotal that governments establish dedicated divisions to lead the work on population policies, such as what Japan, Singapore and Australia have done in recent years. By publishing yearly demographic changes, policymakers can track and project important data, such as population numbers based on different age groups, migration figures, employment rates, marriage and divorce rates, fertility rates, and life expectancy figures. These valuable datasets can assist policymakers in designing key multi-sectoral interventions, from family policies and economic strategies to urban planning projects and budgeting decisions.
Governments have a suite of potential solutions at hand. For example, government efforts to boost fertility rates and support child rearing usually include providing adequate parental and child care leaves, flexible working arrangements, housing grants, child care allowances, and subsidies for children’s education and healthcare. Meanwhile, a comprehensive workforce planning strategy needs to be formulated to assess the need for workers according to different industries and skill sets, thereby informing immigration and naturalization policies. Additionally, decisions regarding major infrastructure projects, from transport to housing, need to be planned according to demographic needs. Furthermore, government well-being experts need to ensure that quality of life is high, whereby citizens and residents can access a holistic package of social and healthcare services to ensure they live healthier and longer lives.
The government of Singapore has done much work in this area through the National Population and Talent Division, which was established in 2011. It is tasked with tracking population data and formulating interventions that ensure its sustainability. As such, the government has implemented a number of successful population interventions. For example, Singapore’s elderly population is growing rapidly as a result of longer life expectancy. So, in 2015, the “Action Plan for Successful Ageing” was launched with the aim of helping “Singaporeans age confidently and lead active lives, with strong bonds with family and community.” The plan includes 70 initiatives, such as raising the re-employment age, encouraging lifelong learning, promoting healthy lifestyles as early as possible, strengthening community care services and support for caregivers, improving aged care services and affordability, and designing more elderly-friendly homes and public infrastructure.

By publishing yearly demographic changes, policymakers can track and project important data.

Sara Al-Mulla

In 2019, Singapore’s fertility rate stood at 1.14, much lower than the needed replacement rate of 2.1. Therefore, supporting citizens in getting married and raising families became a national priority. The government-funded “Marriage and Parenthood Package” provides comprehensive support to couples, such as first-home ownership schemes, paid parental leave, subsidized infant and child care, subsidized healthcare for mothers and children, support for fertility treatments, flexible working arrangements and remote work, and improved accessibility and affordability of preschool, housing, and healthcare for children. During the pandemic, the government launched the Baby Support Grant, whereby the parents of eligible Singaporean children receive a one-off $3,000 cash grant. Couples will also receive up to $21,000 in cash and cash-like benefits on the birth of their first child, and up to $35,000 for their fifth and subsequent children.
Government decisions on population policies will ensure their nations’ sustainability in the future and must be on their list of priorities.

• Sara Al-Mulla is an Emirati civil servant with an interest in human development policy and children’s literature. She can be contacted at www.amorelicious.com.