US, Iran on collision course over nuclear deal’s future

A battle of wills is developing between the new US administration and the Iranian regime over the latter’s commitment to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear agreement and Washington’s potential reversal of the 2018 decision to withdraw from it. The deal was never accepted by Israel, while a number of Gulf states had expressed reservations over its shortcomings, especially with regard to Iran’s ballistic missile program and its regional agenda. Such reservations are now shared by France, Germany and the UK. The Trump administration had used its “maximum pressure” policy in an effort to force Tehran to renegotiate the agreement — a condition that Iran continues to reject.
Early comments by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicate that tough sanctions imposed by the former administration will not be lifted anytime soon, and that Tehran will have to take the first step by reversing all actions that breach the JCPOA’s conditions, such as its uranium enrichment activities. In response, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his Foreign Minister Javad Zarif repeated earlier statements that the US should return to the deal immediately, lift its sanctions, and that no new negotiations should take place. They have also rejected a proposal to include other countries in fresh negotiations.
Time is of the essence, since Iran has threatened to suspend by mid-February its commitment to the so-called additional protocol, which provides tools for verification and increases the International Atomic Energy Agency’s ability to verify the peaceful use of nuclear activities. That would spell the end of the agreement altogether.
The US’ position is backed by its European allies and there are areas of common understanding between Washington and Moscow over the need to salvage the deal. But the US will have to convince Israel that there are no options other than forcing Iran to recommit to the agreement. That will be a tough mission for new US envoy to Iran Robert Malley, whose appointment stirred opposition from Republicans and Democrats alike, in addition to Israel. Malley is a veteran diplomat who served under the Obama administration and was one of the architects of the nuclear agreement. Critics accuse him of backing an unconditional settlement of the nuclear issue with Iran.
But there are no signs that the US will rejoin the deal before imposing new conditions on Tehran. Congress is putting pressure on the Biden administration not to lift sanctions and to stick to the demands that a new deal covering Iran’s long-range missile program and its regional agenda be negotiated. Zarif informed his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov last week that Iran’s “flexibility” could end within a month if Washington does not take positive steps in the coming two weeks.
There is a case to be made for expanding the agreement. Iran’s development of long-range missiles has already demonstrated its danger across the region. The UN has pointed the finger at Iran for the 2019 missile attack on Saudi oil facilities, while the Houthis in Yemen have used Iranian missile technology to launch attacks against civilian targets in Saudi Arabia.
Israel’s biggest security threat comes from the stockpiling of Iranian-made missiles in both Lebanon and Syria. It wants Washington to end Iran’s presence in Syria and to contain Hezbollah in Lebanon.
As for Iran’s controversial regional agenda, it goes without saying that Tehran continues to meddle in Iraqi affairs, supporting Shiite militias and using the country as a stage for its showdown with the US. Its military presence in Syria has further complicated efforts to reach a peaceful settlement to the decade-old civil war that has ruined the country. And its blatant support of the Houthis has impeded UN efforts to end Yemen’s civil war and reunite the country under civilian rule.
The stalemate over the nuclear deal may deepen as Iran prepares to hold its presidential election in June, which analysts believe will deliver a more hawkish leader. On the other hand, President Joe Biden’s foreign policy team will have to navigate diplomatic hurdles both internally and abroad if it is to reach a consensus on a valid strategy that paves the way to salvaging the nuclear deal.

The stalemate over the nuclear deal may deepen as Iran prepares to hold its presidential election in June.

Osama Al-Sharif

Washington’s allies and other partners in the JCPOA criticized Donald Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the deal, and his policy of putting maximum pressure on Iran in order to bring it to the table has obviously failed. In the process, the sanctions he imposed wrecked Iran’s economy but did little to curtail the power of the religious clique or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In fact, the sanctions even empowered the extremists.
As things stand today, Biden’s mission to unravel the complex Iranian nuclear challenge seems almost impossible. Israel and its lobby in Washington will make his mission even harder. Meanwhile, as Iran inches closer to abandoning the deal altogether, the risks for the region of such a move will be difficult to avoid.

• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. Twitter: @plato010