Energy watchdog trims oil demand forecasts on aviation woes

The massive coronavirus pandemic hit to the aviation industry will likely be worse than expected next year, the International Energy Agency says. (Reuters)

• Total oil demand will fall by 8.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 91.2 mbpd for 2020
• Aviation fuel demand is ‘not expected to recover quickly’

PARIS: The International Energy Agency (IEA) trimmed its global oil demand forecasts Tuesday as the massive coronavirus pandemic hit to the aviation industry will likely be worse than expected next year.
For this year, total oil demand will fall by 8.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 91.2 mbpd, reflecting a marginal downward revision to the estimate given in its last monthly report in November, the IEA said.
For 2021, the IEA said it had cut its oil demand growth estimate by 170,000 bpd to 5.7 mbpd “mainly because of another downgrade for jet fuel/kerosene demand.”
Aviation fuel demand is “not expected to recover quickly, as governments intend to keep in place border closures and travel restrictions until a vaccine is widely available.”
“In 2021, demand for both gasoline and diesel is projected to return to 97-99 percent of their 2019 levels,” it added.
The IEA noted that on the supply side, OPEC and allied oil producers, principally Russia, had agreed to slowly increase output earlier this month but all recognized that the market remained fragile and required careful management.