Will Turkish government deliver on its latest political promises?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan presents statements following the Cabinet Meeting at the Presidential Complex in Ankara. (File/AFP)

• Promises of reform have become a recurrent theme in Erdogan and his government member’s speeches recently
• The Turkish lira has lost about a third of its value this year and almost half of its value against the US dollar since May 2018

ANKARA: The Turkish public wakes up every day to statements from leading political figures in Ankara promising a “new wave of reform” that is expected to arrive soon.
However, considering the country’s past record on the rule of law, democracy, human rights and management of the economy, there is a a big question mark over how these actors will deliver on their commitments.
Promises of reform have become a recurrent theme in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his government member’s speeches in recent days, especially after the sudden reshuffle of the country’s top economic team, which includes the resignation of Berat Albayrak, the finance minister and also Erdogan’s son-in-law.
Erdogan has chosen a conciliatory tone in his speeches directed at the financial market, speeches reminiscent of those he made in 2014 about reform of the Turkish economy.
On Nov. 11, Erdogan pledged the launch of market-friendly policies, and to contain inflation and put the country back on a path to growth.
The Turkish lira has lost about a third of its value this year and almost half of its value against the US dollar since May 2018 — making it among the worst performers in emerging markets — although it bounced back following the redesign of the country’s economic management team and the appointment of a new central bank governor and finance minister.
The newly appointed figures both committed to prioritizing price stability in a bid to please global markets, although a decision to raise interest rates to a significant level is expected to be announced on Nov. 19.
Berk Esen, a political scientist from Sabanci University in Istanbul, said that Albayrak’s resignation is a blow to Erdogan, whose regime has fallen on hard times due to the economic downturn and growing popular opposition against his government.
Esen does not attribute too much significance to Erdogan’s and his A team’s recent statements about the start of a new era of reforms in the economy and judiciary.
“Under the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) rule, Turkey has experienced several waves of ‘reform’ that led to centralization of power in the hands of the ruling party and its leader,” he told Arab News.
Justice is another area where the government suffers from internal bleeding from disenchanted party members and constituencies.
Along with declining foreign reserves, a weakening currency and growing isolation due to engagement in several battle scenes in its region, Turkey’s credentials in the justice field are on a downward trend and making investors concerned about the country.
However, Justice Minister Abdulhamit Gul promised speedy trials and less pre-trial prison time in another speech on Nov. 12 in which he criticized lower courts going against decisions of the country’s constitutional court as harmful to investor trust.
“The judiciary should only consider the conscious, law and constitution. Let justice be served, if it means the coming of doomsday,” he said.
In the meantime, the Turkish Council of Judges and Prosecutors HSK will re-evaluate the high-profile case of Turkish philanthropist and businessman Osman Kavala, who has been behind bars since Nov. 1, 2017, as part of a legal saga illustrating the deterioration of the rule of law in Turkey.
The new trial of Kavala, accused of “attempting to undermine the constitutional order,” is set to begin on Dec. 18.
Esen thinks that following Albayrak’s resignation, Erdogan needs to strengthen the ranks of his regime and project an image of stability and calm.
“There were major defections from his party over the past year so he needs to find a way to stop the hemorrhaging of party cadres and votes to the newly established splinter parties and restore confidence in the Turkish economy,” he said.
Erdogan’s AKP is facing a big fall in popularity according to the latest polls, which reveal that public support dropped below 30 percent for the first time, while his nationalistic partner’s vote share drops below the 10 percent election threshold. This decline is significant considering that the AKP secured 43 percent of the vote in the previous parliamentary elections in 2018.
Ali Babacan, former economy tzar and the founder of a breakaway party DEVA, recently launched his campaign, “Don’t be Afraid, Turkey,” urging people to speak their minds and express themselves freely.
According to Esen, Joe Biden’s election as US president will bring the issue of sanctions back to the table over Turkey’s purchase of Russian air defenses when he takes office in January 2021.
“In response, Erdogan is probably seeking a restorationist course in foreign policy and the economy to stabilize his government. If these moves damage his agreement with his coalition partner and leader of the nationalistic MHP, Devlet Bahceli, the option of early elections may arise,” he said.
Burak Bilgehan Ozpek, an Ankara-based political scientist, said that the latest reform promises from high-ranking governmental officials showed that the AKP had noticed its declining political power since local elections last year ,where it lost the mayorship of several key cities to the opposition.
“So far, Albayrak and his team were encouraging a policy of criminalization of all dissident actors and they were implementing a political tutelage solely based on national security paradigms. However, this choice further polarized the country and fueled a one-man rule,” he told Arab News. 
According to Ozpek, the ruling government’s only option to protect its voter base is by initiating reforms, ending judicial scandals, transforming its monopoly on the media and opening up space for people to freely express themselves. 
“However, if Erdogan doesn’t give any concession from his own power, these reforms cannot materialize, and all these promises would remain on paper, leading to a freefall in their electoral base,” he said.