US foreign policy and its implications for the wider world

The US presidential election 2020 is a cliffhanger, if ever there was one. At the time this Op-Ed was written, former Vice President Joe Biden looked ahead in the race. Alas, it will take time until all the votes are counted. Incumbent American President Donald Trump demanded a recount in Wisconsin and is mounting several legal challenges. This is reminiscent of 2000 when counting and legal challenges dragged on for weeks after the election.
On the one hand, Biden expressed optimism, but reminded his supporters that all the votes needed to be counted. On the other hand, Trump’s speech and tweets were bellicose, which is nothing new. Allies and foes of the US alike are asking themselves, what is next and what will it mean for them? Here is the background against which these foreign policy considerations will take place. They reflect a few home truths in the US.
Whatever is said, the election proved the resilience of US democracy. At 139 million, this is the highest voter turnout in more than a century. The process may have been impeded by Trump supporters demonstrating outside the Maricopa County Recorder’s building and other vote-counting sites demanding that counting be stopped as well as by various legal challenges, which will be mounted. There may be demonstrations in the streets of America’s cities, but so far, they have been by and large peaceful. Still the system seems to work, because an army of unphased dedicated professionals keep on counting the votes, ballot by ballot.
That is important because the free world would still like to believe in America as the mother of all democracies. Yes, things are less clear cut than anyone would like them to be, but the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic enticed many more people than usual to vote early or by mail and the sheer numbers of these votes posed new challenges for the system. The US has always been a litigious place, meaning that no one should be phased by the filing of lawsuits.
The context of US foreign policy for the next four years remains the same. The country is deeply divided — split right down the middle — and the COVID-19 outbreak and its impact on the economy will continue to dominate the agenda of whoever resides in the White House. The last four years have created realities, which will not be overcome by the stroke of a pen even if Biden wins the election. Many US allies, particularly in Europe, but also in Asia, have been frustrated by Trump’s impulsiveness and unpredictability.
The US has been the big superpower on the block for a long time, a position which is being increasingly challenged by China. The reason the US held so much sway was not just economic power, technology, and a formidable military, it was just as much the ability to make friends and build mutually beneficial alliances. This is precisely what distinguishes the US from China or Russia.
When, under Trump, the US left the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), the Paris Agreement on climate change, the World Health Organization, and challenged the validity of NATO — just to name a few agreements and institutions — it left scars among the family of nations and the country’s allies. In part, allies would be only too happy to see the US join global efforts again — nowhere more so than the Paris Agreement.
When looking at China, the last four years have redefined the relationship with the US. Biden will not backtrack on the substance of the Trump administration’s grievances. The workforce in the rustbelt of America will demand nothing less. Biden’s China policy may change in tone rather than in substance. That being said, tone matters in foreign policy as it does in diplomacy.
The EU was skeptical of Trump and fearful of what was to come on the trade front. However, some more right-wing EU countries were quite partial to Trump. Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa congratulated the president on his reelection as early as Wednesday morning. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban is, similar to Trump, a self-styled right-wing strongman. Poland and the Baltic states were quite partial to Trump’s intention of taking troops out of Germany and redeploying them in their countries.
Looking at the bigger picture though, NATO needs its lead member, which the US is, to be firmly in its corner, without constant fear of the next verbal attack. However, Trump did manage to get more European NATO allies to increase their contribution to the organization, which in the long run will help the longevity of the alliance.
France and some voices in Germany are arguing for Europe to assume a greater geopolitical position. They have a point, especially as the US will be more inward-looking going forward due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a myriad of other factors.
The UK government might have banked too early on a trade agreement with Trump who likes Brexit just as much as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson does. This explains why the UK is playing a wait-and-see game in the negotiations — despite there being precious little leeway left until an agreement has to be reached.

It would be foolhardy for Europe or China to think that a different administration would be a pushover.

Cornelia Meyer

This brings us to Russia and its President Vladimir Putin, who will feel a definite chill in his relations with the US if Biden assumes the presidency. This will go well beyond the bilateral relationship. A major bone of contention is the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline which will bring gas from Siberia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, circumventing Ukraine.
One can only reiterate that the last four years have left a lasting legacy. It will take more than nice words to push the reset button with many of America’s allies. Whoever ends up living at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue (formal address of the White House), will have to deal with a pandemic, the biggest economic downturn since the Second World War, and the unstoppable rise of China.
One can expect Biden to believe in multilateralism. It would be foolhardy though for Europe or China to think that a different administration would be a pushover. It would be equally foolhardy to assume that America’s friends and foes have not learned their lessons from the past four years.

• Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources. Twitter: @MeyerResources