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As a Joe Biden victory in the US election has seemed increasingly probable over recent weeks, there has been an immense volume of debate throughout the Arab world as to what a Biden presidency would mean for this troubled region; from those desperate to see an end to the chaos of the Trump years, to those who fear an Obama-inspired return to appeasing Tehran.
The Arab world primarily looks to a prospective Biden administration for global re-engagement, working with European, NATO and Arab allies to re-establish a rules-based order so that dictatorial strongmen and pariah regimes can’t dominate near-neighbors with ruthless impunity. Enough of Putin, Erdogan, Netanyahu and Khamenei grappling for supremacy throughout the region, trampling Arab sovereignty and identity underfoot.
Leaders in Tehran, meanwhile, hope Biden leadership means easing of sanctions and unmolested continuation of their belligerent regional policies, while waiting for America to come begging for a diluted version of the 2015 nuclear deal. Biden should thus strengthen his hand by affirming that there will be no sanctions respite until Iran definitively agrees to live peacefully within its own borders, renouncing terrorism, paramilitarism and nuclear ambitions.
The fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency recently revealed that the regime, at immense cost, is building a new underground site for enriching uranium at Natanz is proof enough that the ayatollahs aren’t preparing for a rapid return to compliance with their obligations. While ordinary Iranians starve, this regime squanders its wealth on nuclear weapons.
Immediately after the US presidential inauguration, Iran will enter its own presidential elections season, making hopes for a quick deal expressed by some Biden aides appear wildly optimistic. Indeed, rushed efforts to revive the 2015 deal risk repeating Obama’s mistake in appearing more eager than Tehran for an agreement, resulting in one side making most of the concessions.
On the contrary, Iran should be the one compelled to come and beg for a deal. Khamenei’s xenophobic regime believes nuclear arsenals and paramilitary armies guarantee its survival against a hostile world. It will make concessions in these domains only as a last resort to stave off regime collapse. Reports have been circulating about behind-the-scenes communications between Iranians, Israelis and US officials. Indeed, after three years of intensified sanctions, it may be that Tehran is already more desperate for a deal than it would like us to believe.
The Obama and Trump presidencies were broadly defined by a desire to reduce America’s embroilment in foreign quagmires. Yet in Beirut, Baghdad, Kabul and a host of other capitals today, there is a veritable thirst for the re-emergence of muscular Western diplomacy, to outmaneuver Iran and its allies, and in defense of stability and effective governance.
Biden should strengthen his hand by affirming that there will be no sanctions respite until Iran definitively agrees to live peacefully within its own borders, renouncing terrorism, paramilitarism and nuclear ambitions.
Baria Alamuddin
A swift Biden intervention could have a major impact in Lebanon. After months of prevarication, with Saad Hariri back in the frame as prime minister, vigorous Biden support for French President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts in favor of a competent, technocratic government could open the floodgates for an IMF deal, while also thwarting Hezbollah.
US readiness to recommence talks with Tehran should be premised on Iran instructing its paramilitary allies in Lebanon and Iraq to allow democratic processes to take their course, halting attempts at destabilization with the objective of capturing the political system for themselves. Ultimately, America and its allies must follow through and ensure the wholesale disarmament and dismantlement of these militias, if the region is to enjoy any kind of long-term stability and security.
Biden will also need to grapple with the Palestine issue. He should set aside Trump and Netanyahu’s attempts to prejudice the issue, and instead acknowledge Palestinian territorial rights throughout the occupied territories and East Jerusalem. Biden’s commitment to Israel’s security may be “ironclad,” but Israel can enjoy long-term security only in the context of a just peace deal with Palestinians, as well as with Arab neighbors.
The aspirations of ordinary people throughout the Arab world are remarkably normal: They want jobs, stability, and quality education and health services for their families. Women demand the same freedoms and opportunities as men. Citizens don’t desire to be dominated by extremists — not Daesh, the Muslim Brotherhood, or Iran’s proxies. Faced with water shortages, desertification, extreme temperatures and overdependence on oil, this is a region that stands to benefit from Biden’s emphasis on climate change.
This is furthermore a region burdened by vast displaced populations — Syrians, Palestinians, Yemenis, Iraqis, Libyans, Sudanese, and now even Lebanese looking for a better life overseas. By rolling back Trump’s funding cuts for refugees and giving immediate attention to this challenge, Biden can prevent fresh humanitarian catastrophes and the knock-on ramifications of extremism; mass population movements. smuggling of people, arms and narcotics, and chronic regionwide instability.
A Biden administration will be faced with a massive pile of domestic and foreign priorities, not least of which will be reaching strategic understandings with China. Meanwhile, an outgoing Trump administration is widely expected to adopt a scorched-earth policy, making life as problematic as possible for its successor. After four years of Trump, US institutions are already in chaos; for example; the hollowed-out and politicized State Department, where a host of diplomatic positions remain empty. Thus, it may be many months before Biden makes any progress toward unveiling an ambitious multilateral global agenda, let alone striking a quick-win deal with Tehran.
Americans have been attracted to Biden’s candidacy because he is a moderate, non-divisive figure, a contrast to the controversies and confrontations of the Trump years. Let’s hope that Biden also has the caliber to be a unifying force on the global stage.
The Middle East enjoys immense potential and vast resources. But we have learned from bitter experience that the wider world can enjoy tranquility and prosperity only when the threats of extremism, instability and inequality in this strategically crucial region are confronted head-on.
- Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.