Lebanon pins economic hopes on talks with Israel

United Nations peacekeeping force (UNIFIL) vehicles patrol the area of Naqura, south of the Lebanese city of Tyre, on the border with Israel, on October 2, 2020. (AFP)

• Hezbollah will lose justification for its weapons, analyst tells Arab News
• The negotiations aim to demarcate the disputed maritime border and, later, the land border

BEIRUT: Successful border talks with Israel could revive Lebanon’s devastated economy and remove Hezbollah’s justification for its weapons, analysts told Arab News on Saturday. The first session of US-mediated Lebanese-Israeli talks under UN auspices will take place on Oct. 14 in the Lebanese border town of Naqoura. The negotiations aim to demarcate the disputed maritime border and, later, the land border. Lebanon is hoping that successful talks will provide an appropriate security environment for oil and gas companies to explore off its coast. The first session will have low-level representation, with military and Energy Ministry officials representing Lebanon. Lebanon and Israel are technically at war, and there are no agreed land or sea borders between them. Several points on the UN-demarcated land border — the Blue Line — are disputed by the two countries. Lebanon signed its first offshore oil and gas exploration and production contracts in 2018 with three companies — France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek — to explore Block 4 and Block 9 in the Mediterranean. The latter block is disputed by Israel. Successful exploration would provide a lifeline for Lebanon’s ailing economy. The contracts signed between Lebanon and the consortium obligates the drilling of an exploration well before the end of 2020. These companies have two options: Either proceed with the drilling despite the Israeli-Lebanese dispute, or negotiate with Beirut to postpone the exploration.
“Negotiating with Israel has important political and security results as it will lead to reducing current tensions,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, a researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center.
He said demarcating borders would remove the justification of the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah for possessing weapons.
“Lebanon is entering a new phase. It’s possible to negotiate a final solution to the Lebanese-Israeli conflict, and then weapons will be included in Lebanon’s internal formula and, through a gradual phase, in a military strategy,” he said. “The Lebanese Army, therefore, becomes the umbrella, and Hezbollah’s cadres may be integrated into the army or be a stand-alone wing under the army’s command, in return for a political gain that doesn’t violate the balance and parity. There’s talk of making the army’s command Shiite.” On the feasibility of exploring for gas and oil, Ali said: “The political class in Lebanon has been too slow with this, but the gas revolution will remain a fact, and through bilateral agreements, Lebanon can catch up.”