Experts see rupture in Russia’s ties with Turkey after cancellation of talks

ANKARA: As Russia’s foreign and defense ministers postponed at the last minute a planned visit to Turkey on Sunday to discuss the Libya and Syria conflicts, the reasons for the decision have become a topic of speculation.
On the same day, French President Emmanuel Macron harshly criticized Turkey’s “aggressive” intervention in Libya, and accused Ankara of violating a UN arms embargo and dispatching several ships to the war-torn country.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were set to visit Istanbul with a high-level delegation, a few days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a phone call with his US counterpart Donald Trump.
Ankara “wants to use Libya as leverage in its overall bilateral relations with the US, and most likely intends to coordinate some aspects of the cease-fire agreement with Washington, and possibly to harmonize them with US interests in the area,” Madalina Vicari, an expert on geopolitics and Turkey, told Arab News, adding that the US wants to prevent increased Russian influence in Libya.
Aydin Sezer, an Ankara-based expert on Turkey-Russia relations, said disagreements between the two countries about the roadmap to follow after the cease-fire were behind the decision to put off the talks.
“Russia wants to negotiate the Libya issue along with issues related to Syria and especially rebel-held Idlib province,” he told Arab News.
“Therefore Russia wants to increase pressure on Turkey by bringing Iran to the negotiation table because Moscow and Tehran follow similar policies in Idlib, contrary to Turkish priorities.”
Sezer said the situation of Syrian mercenaries fighting in Libya is a “red line” for the Kremlin and another point of contention between Moscow and Ankara.
“Russia accuses Turkey of not eradicating these terrorists in Idlib and exporting them to Libya,” he added.
Sezer said Ankara and Moscow are negotiating ways to decrease Turkey’s military footprint in Libya.
Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin recently said Ankara favors a political solution rather than a military one.
But Sezer said: “Turkey insists on keeping its military advisors in Libya until brokering a final peace, which is unacceptable to Russia for the moment.”
Samuel Ramani, a researcher at Oxford University, said the postponement of the visit was Libya-related, although Russian airstrikes in Syria have rankled Turkey.
“I think Russia and Turkey want to meet on Libya when a deal of sorts can be signed. They want progress on intra-Libyan peace negotiations, and Moscow certainly would want Turkey to commit to a military de-escalation,” he told Arab News.
Ramani said another failed meeting, following the walkout in January by eastern Libya strongman Khalifa Haftar, would be seen in Russia as a blow to its status as a diplomatic arbiter.
A source in Ankara said the Russian postponement may be related to a strategic move by Turkey to let Libya’s Government of National Accord take some zones around the city of Sirte, the so-called oil crescent, rather than agree to a quick cease-fire.
“In the meantime, Iran feels uncomfortable with the Astana process (on Syria) turning into a Turkish-Russian project by sidelining Tehran and attacking Iranian militia in the region,” said the source.
“Therefore, the ongoing dynamics in Syria may have indirect repercussions over bilateral negotiations on Libya.”