E3 must extend Iran’s arms embargo for global security

As the expiration date for Iran’s arms embargo under the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal approaches, once again tensions among the P5+1 (the US, Russia, UK, France, China and Germany) are escalating.

Unfortunately, one of the major concessions granted to the Islamic Republic during the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiations was linked to the UN’s arms embargo against the Iranian regime. From the outset, the US and the E3 (Germany, the UK and France) should not have agreed to negotiate a date with the Iranian authorities for the lifting of the arms embargo within the nuclear talks.

The arms embargo, imposed on the theocratic establishment by the UN Security Council (UNSC) prior to the nuclear negotiations, should have been considered a totally separate topic from Tehran’s nuclear defiance. The arms embargo was related to Iran’s conventional weapons and ballistic missile technology, efforts to smuggle weapons, arming of militia groups, and sponsoring of terror groups across the region. The ban was leveled against a range of weaponry, including large-caliber artillery, combat aircraft, battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, attack helicopters, some missiles and missile launchers, and warships. It was passed through several UNSC resolutions between 2006 and 2010.

Therefore, it was a major political failure that the world powers surrendered to the Iranian leaders’ demand and included a lenient policy on the arms embargo in the nuclear deal. The JCPOA should have only concentrated on Iran’s nuclear activities.

Currently, the only member of the P5+1 that is calling for an extension of the arms embargo beyond October is the US. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft have been urging the global powers to make extending the arms embargo against Iran a top priority. Craft stressed in a press briefing that: “Russia and China need to join a global consensus on Iran’s conduct. This is about not only the people of Iran but the people in the Middle East.”

But there is no incentive for Russia to extend the arms embargo, and Moscow’s UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia has already made it clear that it will oppose any UNSC resolution to extend the ban.

It was a major political failure that the world powers surrendered to the Iranian leaders’ demand.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

It seems that the US has limited options to prevent the lifting of the arms embargo. One approach would be for Washington to introduce a standalone UNSC resolution listing a new round of sanctions on Iran’s arms activities. But, in order for that to pass, the five permanent members of the council would all have to approve it. Russia would most likely veto any such motion.

The second method would be to use UNSC resolution 2231, which endorsed the JCPOA. One of its provisions is that there exists no requirement for all members of the nuclear deal to reach a unanimous vote in order to extend the arms embargo against Tehran. Any member can unilaterally extend it and that move cannot be vetoed. However, this would require the US to make the legal argument that it is still a bona fide participant in the JCPOA.

Washington is trying to accomplish its goal through this method. “The UN Security Council resolution 2231 is very clear. We don’t have to declare ourselves as a participant… It’s there in the language… It’s unambiguous and the rights that accrue to participants in the UN Security Council resolution are fully available to all those participants,” Pompeo stated in April. US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook also referred to resolution 2231, pointing out “For the purpose of resolving issues, we have certain rights that are clearly there and there’s no qualification.”

However, it is not only Russia but also the European powers that are opposing the US argument that it is still part of the JCPOA. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell insisted last week: “The United States has withdrawn from the JCPOA, and now they cannot claim that they are still part of the JCPOA in order to deal with this issue from the JCPOA agreement. They withdraw. It’s clear. They withdraw.”

Emboldened Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif in April told Pompeo to “stop dreaming” that Washington was still a party to the JCPOA, while President Hassan Rouhani last month warned: “Iran will give a crushing response if the arms embargo on Tehran is extended… Iran would never accept the extension of an arms embargo.”

America’s E3 allies can unilaterally or collectively extend the UN arms embargo against the Iranian regime — the top state sponsor of terrorism. They must stand on the right side of history by not allowing it to expire.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh