Changes afoot for Middle East’s Kurds

The fate of the Kurds is in a constant state of flux in all countries that have a sizable Kurdish minority.

US efforts to consolidate the Kurdish identity in Syria continue unabated. At first sight, this may look inconsistent with the American policy of shifting its focus from the Middle East to the Pacific Rim, but it is not. The US policy on Kurds is part and parcel of Israel’s security and is likely to remain so for a long time.

The entire fabric of Syria is in the process of taking a new shape. The Syrian government is negotiating with the Kurds on how to integrate them into the future state structures, while the US wants to use them as a bargaining chip to pressure the Assad regime. 

Based on the support the Kurds receive from both Russia and the US, they will probably try to grab as many competences as possible during this process. But the game is far from being over. Even the light at the end of the tunnel is not yet in sight. Too many factors are interacting in Syria to determine the final outcome. 

US President Donald Trump, weary of unnecessary American military involvement in various parts of the world, might like to find an accommodation with Russia — and Syria could be the country where this accommodation is tested. Because of the fluidity of the situation in Syria, it is too soon to tell whether such cooperation will materialize. If it does, Turkey will face both risks and opportunities. The risk is that the two superpowers’ policies will contradict that of Ankara. The opportunity is that Turkey could cooperate with both of them. 

In Iran, the promotion of the Kurdish cause is compounded with provoking dissidence in order to destabilize the country. Its impact on Israel’s security is a slightly more distant target.

The US’ handling of Turkey’s Kurdish file differs from other countries where there are Kurdish minorities.

Yasar Yakis

In Iraq, the Kurdish cause reached the level of a proclamation of independence in 2017, but that backfired for several reasons stemming from the prevailing circumstances at the time. The US opposed the proclamation for reasons of political expediency, but the process cannot be considered complete. It is being kept in the refrigerator for the time being.

The US’ handling of Turkey’s Kurdish file differs from other countries where there are Kurdish minorities. It recognizes the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) as a terrorist organization, as do the EU and other NATO member countries. The US authorities were even the main actors in capturing PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan in the Greek Embassy in Kenya and securing his extradition to Turkey. But the US authorities continue to deny that the strongest Kurdish political party in Syria, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), is the Syrian branch of the PKK.

On the link between the Kurdish cause and Israel’s security, videos circulate in Turkey from time to time claiming that even the establishment of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is related to it. It is claimed that this footage shows that, in 1998, a group of Americans came to Turkey to meet intellectuals and politicians and negotiated with them to help carry them to power, provide financing, and neutralize any obstacles in their way. In exchange for this, the Americans asked for support for Israel’s security. 

Journalist Abdurrahman Dilipak claimed to have worked on these proposals, met influential people in Ankara, and persuaded them to translate these ideas into action. This was how the AKP was established. At the beginning, the videos looked like a conspiracy theory, but Ali Bulac, one of the journalists who apparently attended the negotiations, published in 2014 an article in the Turkish daily Zaman admitting that he was present.

Irrespective of this background, there is encouraging news about the Kurdish question in Turkey. Two months ago, Ocalan was allowed to speak to his brother for the first time in 21 years. He told his brother that the PKK should not fight with the Iraqi Kurdish leaders. Meanwhile, the leader of the Syrian Kurds, Mazloum Kobani Abdi, last week announced that they had completed the first round of their negotiations with the Iraqi Kurds’ Masoud Barzani. 

These messages lack clarity, but we may be on the threshold of new developments on the subject of the Kurds in the Middle East. As far as Turkey is concerned, this may be part of Erdogan’s strategy to win more Kurdish votes for his party.

• Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar