Turkish-Greek relations tense amid fears of military showdown

ISTANBUL: In an escalating war of nerves between Athens and Ankara, bilateral relations have deteriorated, sparking fears of a military confrontation between the two NATO allies.
Greek Defense Minister Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos recently highlighted his country’s “readiness for military conflict with Turkey.”
On Wednesday, a Greek navy ship attempted to inspect a cargo vessel off the Libyan coast but a Turkish military escort refused access.
Greece has also protested Turkish drilling plans in 24 locations in the Mediterranean Sea that it considers Greek territory.
In a statement, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias warned that Athens  would retaliate if Ankara begins drilling in the area.
At the Delphi Economic Forum on June 11, Greek Deputy National Security Adviser Thanos Dokos pushed for greater regional cooperation in the eastern Mediterranean.
A controversial maritime deal between Turkey and Libya’s Government of National Accord has also caused alarm. It permits Ankara to explore the Mediterranean seabed, including several Greek islands.
However, experts do not expect immediate military confrontation between the two countries.
Paul Antonopoulos, an expert on Turkish-Greek relations, says the situation will remain a war of words.
“Since Greece won its independence from the Ottoman Empire, there have been four major wars between the Greeks and Turks, with Greece always being the one to first declare the war. Athens has already said it does not want war but will only respond to Turkish-initiated aggression,” he told Arab News.
He added: “It is unlikely that (President Recep Tayyip) Erdogan will declare war, especially as Turkey is militarily over-extended in Syria and Libya and is facing an economic crisis.”
Antonopoulos said: “Athens has also suggested that the International Court of Justice at The Hague be used to resolve the maritime issue, but Ankara does not recognize its authority. It is through international law that Greece and Turkey can resolve the maritime issue, however Ankara does not recognize any of the internationally recognized means to do so.”
Similarly, Greek security analyst Ioannis Michaletos does not predict a military confrontation between the two countries.
“This is a scenario with very few probabilities under the current circumstances. The continuation of a tense atmosphere between the two countries for the foreseeable future, especially on the diplomatic front, is likely,” he told Arab News.
Michaletos does not anticipate a “breakthrough” soon for the deeply rooted divergences between the two countries.
“The instability will tend to continue throughout 2020 for sure,” he said.
The ongoing controversy about the conversion of Hagia Sophia in Istanbul, built as a Byzantine cathedral in the 6th century and protected under the UNESCO World Heritage list, into a mosque, has been protested by the Greek government, especially due to its status as the former seat of the Greek Orthodox Church.
Stelios Petsas, a spokesman for the Greek government, said “Hagia Sophia is a global monument of cultural heritage” that was now being used as “a tool to promote other aims.”
Antonopoulos said that its status as a UNESCO World Heritage Site would require the approval of the Paris-based organization to convert it.
“Failure to get approval could see various forms of punishment against Turkey with UN backing, including sanctions, and Erdogan may not want to risk the economic volatility,” he said.
He argues that Erdogan “is fomenting issues”… “as a way to distract the population from the severe economic situation.”

Turkish-Greek relations tense amid fears of military showdown