Virus spread needs to be mitigated during protests

The global outrage over racism is masking serious issues concerning the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Given the peaceful protests, confrontations from the use of tear gas and the looting, social distancing protocols have been broken, meaning the spread of the disease is guaranteed. The next outbreaks of COVID-19 will be in cities that have seen protest and rage, and will likely occur soon.

No doubt the West is having a cathartic moment over what to do next with such large-scale manifestations of anger. Over two straight weeks of protests in hundreds of places, from suburbs to big cities, people have appeared in extremely large numbers. The breadth and scale of the racism protests are off the chart. Large one-day demonstrations, such as the March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom (1963), the antinuclear march in New York (1982) and Women’s March (2017), were impressive and powerful. In addition, widespread simultaneous protests, especially following the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. in 1968, are especially salient regarding how some issues remain unchanged. But, at these times, a pathogen such as COVID-19 was not part of the American or global landscape.

The global outrage, when mixed with crowd dynamics, illustrates that major change is coming in terms of community relations, not only because of the inequalities exposed but also how the pathogen will affect near-term mitigation efforts.

The crowd dynamics of the past week may be telling of potential spread and outbreaks. Protesters, even though many were wearing masks, gathered in densely congested areas, allowing for possible transmission. In some cases, masks were removed in order to be as vocal as possible when shouting slogans. In these instances, droplets became airborne and allowed for the potential transmission of the virus to other protesters, who could then spread the infection to others. Many of the protests occurred in areas of the world where lockdowns were in force, but government authorities simply could not keep important social distancing protocols in place.

Air conditioning also spreads the pathogen, so allowing protesters to seek shelter in offices or homes without proper social distancing procedures in place will have resulted in possible high exposure.

Finally, around the world, many protesters laid on the ground, face down, next to each other to protest the choke hold placed on George Floyd. Such protests — literally at shoe level — are not a sanitized environment, meaning the potential for spread is high. No doubt here we see the paradox of “liberty or death” that is so prominent at the heart of democracy.

Another aspect to consider regards violent confrontations. Confrontations between police and protesters, including the use of tear gas, creates a chaotic scene where the possible transmission of COVID-19 between individuals involved in the scuffles, who are fleeing and falling over each other, increases dramatically.

Incidents of looting will also likely lead to more COVID-19 cases. Images of looters ransacking various businesses show individuals squeezing next to each other, giving high-fives, and taking advantage of a lawless situation. This aspect of crowd dynamics illustrates that the general chaos of looting will spread COVID-19 faster. It is quite possible that the looters themselves, or others in their families, will suffer from the disease in the coming weeks. The horrible irony is that the very individuals who face the worst racism are the ones who will suffer the most because, one assumes, socioeconomic disparity drove much of the looting phenomena.

Thus, based on the crowd dynamics scenarios related to pathogen spread, the number of people exposed in various simulation scenarios can be determined, and the possible number of people affected can be calculated too. Given the global response to the outrage over racism, the high potential for pathogen spread exists. This includes asymptomatic individuals causing infections.

Government authorities simply could not keep important social distancing protocols in place.

Dr. Theodore Karasik

In order to get on the right path to fight injustice during a pandemic, better planning needs to go into pathogen spread mitigation using crowd dynamics theory. It is argued that areas such as subway stations, stadiums, shopping malls and railway stations have complex structures, large interior spaces and only a few exits, meaning they are high transmission areas. With high crowd density, the potential for pathogen spread is greatest.

As racism is likely to drive more demonstrations, city officials must be ready for another wave of infections. A rise in COVID-19 cases from late June and into the fall will alter many countries’ coronavirus trajectories and statistics. What were once decline rates will, in some places, rise again, and other countries where social distancing was broken rapidly will see more cases too. Crowd dynamics and pathogen mitigation need to be addressed in this context, as protests, confrontation and looting will likely occur again. We must remember social justice also includes good hygiene, common sense, and avoiding spreading this stubborn pathogen with no cure during a time of socioeconomic change.

• Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington, D.C. He is a former RAND Corporation Senior Political Scientist who lived in the UAE for 10 years, focusing on security issues. Twitter: @tkarasik