DUBAI: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
That expression, commonly used when a person falls for the same deceit twice, probably sums up the thoughts of leading epidemiologists as they watch COVID-19 cause global havoc.
Since late last year, the world has been largely defenseless against a contagion whose death toll has surpassed 178,000 and is still rising, with more than 2.5 million confirmed cases as of Thursday.
In a few brief months, the coronavirus pandemic has thrown the future of public-health programs, employment and the world economy into question.
Many believe that the failure of governments and global bodies to contain not the first or second but the fifth strain of coronavirus is unforgivable.
In recent decades, the world has dealt with at least a dozen outbreaks, with SARS (2003), H1N1 “swine flu” (2009), Ebola (2014) and MERS (2012) being the most obvious examples.
MERS, or Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, is a COVID-19-like illness caused by the MERS-CoV virus, with direct contact with camels identified as a risk factor for human infection.
All cases of MERS have been linked — either by travel or residence — to countries in and near the Arabian Peninsula.
Now, much of the Middle East is under lockdown owing to the threat posed by a different coronavirus.
So far, there is no indication that certain groups of people in the Middle East are more prone to the COVID-19 virus than others.
Dr. Sundar Elayaperumalm, an Abu Dhabi-based microbiologist, said the new coronavirus poses a threat to all communities and knows no borders.
However, he said that it is too early to say “whether people who have already been exposed to other strains of coronavirus may be less symptomatic than others.”
Local medical experts are also conscious of the debate surrounding the possibility of a cured coronavirus patient becoming infected a second time.
The human body’s antibody response seven to 10 days after the onset of an infection “means it is unlikely that patients who recover from COVID-19 can become re-infected so soon after contracting the virus,” said Elayaperumalm, who is also chairman of infection control at the UAE’s Burjeel Hospital.
That said, there is still no clarity on what kind of immunity a recovered patient has from re-infection — temporary or long term.
Elayaperumalm attributes the steady increase in the number of confirmed cases in the Gulf region to the scale and reach of mass testing programs.
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The UAE has carried out more than 640,000 tests in a population of 9.6 million people, while as of April 19, Saudi Arabia had completed 180,000 tests.
“Mass testing helps to detect cases that are asymptomatic or had contact with positive COVID-19 patients,” Elayaperumalm said.
Mass testing is useful in identifying infected people before they can spread the virus and in providing them with the necessary care.
Elayaperumalm believes ramped-up testing is particularly helpful in detecting infections among health workers.
The hope is that precautionary measures such as social distancing, effective handwashing, and the use of face masks and protective gloves will help “flatten the curve” of infections over time.
“Masks may help. But experts keep returning to social distancing as the single best tool to stop the chain of transmission,” he said.
Lockdowns, cancelation of events, working from home and school closures also will slow the spread of the virus.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has emphasized that social distancing restrictions are only part of the response and are not cost-free.
“Shutdowns” and “lockdowns” can slow COVID-19 transmission by limiting contact between people, but can have a profound negative impact on individuals, communities and societies by bringing social and economic life to a near stop, a WHO spokesperson told Arab News.
“Such measures disproportionately affect disadvantaged groups, including people in poverty, migrants, internally displaced people and refugees, who most often live in overcrowded and under-resourced settings, and depend on daily labor for subsistence.”
The WHO believes that public-health measures can be balanced with “adaptive strategies that are implemented with the full engagement of all members of society.”
Such an approach aims to “encourage community resilience and social connection, protect incomes and secure the food supply,” the spokesperson said.
While the fight against the coronavirus continues, the scale of the contagion has left many wondering if any action plan was in place, and whether a contingency strategy exists for future contagions.
There is no denying that humanity had been warned — in the form of science-fiction novels, Hollywood films and lectures by leading thinkers.
In a TED Talk in 2015 that went viral after the coronavirus outbreak in China, Microsoft co-founder and leading philanthropist Bill Gates cautioned that the world was “not ready for the next epidemic.”
Bill and Melinda Gates. (AP)
Misplaced government funding and lack of investment have resulted in under-strength health-care systems and virus-fighting capabilities, he said.
“If anything kills more than 10 million people in the next few decades, it’s most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war — not missiles but microbes,” he told the TED Talk audience.
The clock is clearly ticking for mankind to get its priorities right.
