Official Iranian coronavirus numbers probably underestimated: Radio Farda

Radio Farda said death toll is more likely at 4,298 and the number of hospitalized or quarantined people at 66,657. (WANA)

• Government expects death toll to be 11,000 with current levels of intervention
• Official daily tolls have been decreasing the past three days

DUBAI: The Iranian death toll does not match government predictions, the increase in number of cases or collected data, Radio Farda reported on Monday.
Although the official death toll is at 2,757 and the number of cases is at 41,495, the radio station’s data – gathered from “various national and local media in Iran, as well as comments made by regional authorities and Health Ministry officials” –  showed that the death toll is more likely at 4,298 and the number of hospitalized or quarantined people at 66,657 the report added.
The Iranian branch of the US government-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty also said the current number of daily deaths is decreasing while the number of daily cases keeps increasing. 
For instance, the report explained, Iran’s daily death tolls on March 28 were 139, 123 on the 29th 123, and 117 on the 30. 
One of the reasons for the increased number of confirmed cases is the increased number of testing kits, which allow the government to diagnose more cases. Yet, the trend of increasing infections with a decrease in deaths has not been observed in other countries, the report explained.
Meanwhile, according to a model quoted by the President’s Science and Technology Deputy Parviz Karami, with the current adopted level of governmental intervention – which is intermediate –  the total death cases of COVID-19 would reach around 11,000 by July.
The report added that if the government adopts a high-level of intervention, without involving military but with inter and inner city movement banned, city quarantines and isolation and contact tracing, then the death toll would be around 7,700, as per the same model mentioned earlier.
“The Iranian government appears to have adopted the intermediate intervention approach. But if the death tally at this point is around 4,000, the estimated number of 7,700 seems to be too low,” Radio Farda reported.