ANKARA: Turkey’s losses in Syria’s opposition-held northwestern Idlib province on Thursday night, and Ankara’s subsequent request for assistance from its NATO allies, especially the US, has stirred concern over regional de-escalation.
So far, no Western ally has been willing to intervene in a conflict, which many consider is of Turkey’s own making. Calls for NATO support may fall on deaf ears, though there is also some suggestion that a symbolic US deployment, perhaps in the form of reinforcing Incirlik airbase with Patriot missile batteries, could happen.
As the US does not have the legal authority to stop or shoot down Syrian warplanes targeting Turkish troops, Turkey recently asked Washington to deploy such batteries on its southern border against any future attacks from Syrian rockets.
“I think the US will give rhetorical support for Turkey — I’m just not sure it will give military support,” Aaron Stein, a Turkey expert at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, told Arab News.
According to Stein, any US action would be to defend Turkey, not to enable it to mount an offensive.
One of the key problems Turkey faces is that Russia controls the airspace over Idlib, which provides regime troops with a strategic gain over Turkish forces. In current circumstances, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s brinkmanship with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan may test the limits of their personal ties, and undermine any immediate search for political settlement.
“Right now, the main strategy of the US support is more verbal than concrete, and it is disconcerting that the (US) administration has been slow to respond to a crisis involving a NATO ally that has been escalating for several days,” Jonathan Katz, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told Arab News.
“There are growing concerns in Washington about thousands of Syrians fleeing from Assad and Putin-directed attacks, and deep sympathy for Turkish troops killed or injured, but Erdogan should not expect US President Donald Trump to come to the rescue,” Katz said.
According to Katz, the current developments are the result of significant US-Turkish relations fallout from Erdogan’s foreign policy decisions over the last decade that have poisoned the waters among Ankara’s Western partners, including his embrace of Putin and insistence on purchasing a Russian S400 air defense system — despite US and NATO objections.
“The US must go beyond diplomacy immediately to support Turkey, but it is essential for the Turkish people to hold a mirror up to their own leaders to better understand why President Erdogan put Turkey’s security at risk with an unreliable partner like Putin,” he said.
A high-level US delegation is expected to visit Turkey next week.
“Erdogan knows that Turkey cannot defeat Russia on its own,” Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish program at the Washington Institute, told Arab News. “Therefore, if he is going to escalate significantly, he wants to make sure he has the US support and at least the political backing of NATO allies.”
I think the US will give rhetorical support for Turkey — I’m just not sure it will give military support.
Aaron Stein, Analyst
According to Cagaptay, that support can come in different forms, like intelligence support for targeting Syrian assets. Turkey reportedly destroyed a chemical weapons facility belonging to the regime 13 km south of Aleppo on Friday.
“But there could be even further support, like the US providing Patriot missiles to Turkey, and of course the ultimate (support) would be the US taking out Syria’s air defense system,” he said.
For Cagaptay, the last option would be significant because it would create a de facto no-fly zone over northern Syria.
“There is a clear asymmetry between Turkey and the regime forces. If the Syrian air defense system was taken out, that would give Turkey military superiority,” he said.
“So, Erdogan is perhaps going to push for Patriots, increased intelligence support, and political backing of NATO allies. That I think is the only way Turkey can stand up and push back. In the absence of that Turkey will have to take the deal that Putin has offered.”
According to Cagaptay, Putin probably calculated that Turkey’s NATO allies would not come to Ankara’s assistance in Syria, which could see a scenario where Syrian regime troops end up controlling the majority of Idlib’s territory, and Turkey receiving the majority of its civilian population as refugees, if that gamble proves correct.
The pressure that would place on EU allies would prove significant — already since Friday, 18,000 refugees have arrived on the Turkish border with Europe, with the number expected to reach as many as 30,000 in the upcoming days, as Erdogan facilitates their movement across Turkey to show Europe Syria is not Turkey’s problem to face alone.
“It all depends on Trump. I think Trump has surprised analysts and observers quite a few times. It would not be shocking this time either if Erdogan got what he wanted, which is significant US support. We have to wait and see.”
