Pakistan’s gas shortage may send shivers this winter

Pakistani children stand around a fire during cold weather in Lahore on January 16, 2017. (AFP)

• Gas consumers in Karachi and Rawalpindi are already experiencing low gas pressure
• Domestic gas production is declining by 5-7 percent a year

KARACHI: Anxiety is rising as both temperatures and gas pressure supply are dropping across Pakistan, foreboding an unusually cold heating season.
The problem was already severe last winter, when both domestic and industrial gas consumers suffered from load shedding and low pressure which disrupted their daily activities. This year, a repeat of the same scenario has already been observed in parts of Karachi and Rawalpindi.
“We are facing low pressure mostly in the peak hours in the morning, afternoon and evening, at the time of cooking. The situation is worrisome for the area residents due to last year’s experience,” Rao Imran, a researcher and resident of Karachi’s Gulshan-e-Hadid, told Arab News, as he recalled the horrors of last winter when the situation forced families to rely on firewood for cooking.
In Rawalpindi, residents say they have been facing occasional low pressure following recent cold spells after rains. “These days the gas pressure declines to some extent after rains, but during December and January it is completely cut off,” Gul Afsar Khan, a professional chef, told Arab News.
In Lahore, the cold wave has not reached the city yet, but residents are already bracing for gas shortages. “The load shedding last year disturbed our lives as children were forced to go to school without breakfast and our office routine was disrupted,” said Shaikh Muhammad Azeem, who works at a sanitary ware manufacturing facility in Lahore.
Pakistan is caught between depleting reserves and increasing demand for natural gas, which contributes some 48 percent to the country’s energy mix. The demand grows significantly between December and February, when temperatures drop close to zero, and is propelled by an increase in population.
In December 2018, gas consumption reached 4.216 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), compared with 3.942 bcfd a year earlier.
According to the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), which regulates the oil and gas sector in Pakistan, the demand-supply gap during the 2017-18 fiscal year was 1.45 bcfd. It is expected to rise to 3.7 bcfd in 2019-20.
Without gas imports, the demand is forecast to reach 4.6 bcfd in the 2022-23 fiscal year and 6.7 bcfd in 2027-28.
The prime minister’s special assistant on petroleum, Nadeem Babar, said on Tuesday that domestic gas production is declining by 5-7 percent a year.
“The government would continue to import LNG [liquefied natural gas] to cater to local demand. Shale gas exploration activities would also commence by next month,” Babar told participants of the Annual Technical Symposium and Exhibition organized in Islamabad by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department predicts temperature fluctuations this year. “The temperature may fluctuate and drop against winter routines,” Muhammad Riaz, director general, told Arab News.
Pakistan is taking steps to bridge the demand gap with regasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG), imported mostly from Qatar. The share of RLNG, in the overall gas supply, has increased to 23 percent, according to OGRA.
To avoid a public outcry amid gas shortages during winters, gas supplies have been channeled to household consumers, cutting back on industries. This year, however, industrialists have opposed the move to ensure continued exports.
“It is very crucial for export-oriented industries and import substitution industries to have uninterrupted gas supplies. Pakistan’s exports are increasing but in the absence of gas, exporters will not be able to meet their orders,” Syed Mazhar Ali Nasir, former senior vice president of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), told Arab News.
“Last year, some industries remained closed for weeks due to the lack of gas supplies, while others were forced to cut back on working days. Some industries can’t operate if the gas pressure is low or interrupted,” he said.
In attempts to mitigate the looming gas crisis, the government has floated a tender for imports of four LNG cargoes in December, five in January and one in February.