Does US electorate support Trump’s trade war?
US President Donald Trump has deepened the trade war with China, adding new tariffs a week ago. During his presidency, he has also imposed tariffs affecting Canada, Mexico, Europe and other countries. His willingness to take major risks to rebalance trade relationships — even at the potential cost of sparking economic recession — might suggest he has significant support among voters for these policies. However, American attitudes toward trade and tariffs are, in fact, complex.
Most Americans have a positive view of trade. A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that 64 percent of Americans approveof free trade and a 2018 Pew Research Center poll found that 74 percent of Americans thinktrade is good. Both polls showed that support for trade has increased in recent years. Younger Americans and those with higher levels of education and income are more likely to support trade. Partisan differences on trade between Republican and Democratic voters vary and shift with time and circumstance, highlighting the complexity of the public’s views on trade.
While Americans tend to support trade, they tend to be less enthusiastic about trade than respondents in several other advanced and emerging economies, according to the Pew poll. Also, while Americans tend to be positive about the idea of trade, they are less certain about its actual benefits. The Pew poll found that only 36 percent believed that trade creates jobs, and only 37 percent believed that it decreases prices.
Trump’s use of tariffs is not popular. A June RealClearPolitics poll found that 48 percent of voters sawTrump’s tariffs as negative, with 39 percent viewing them positively. An AP/NORC poll found that 51 percent believeTrump’s tariffs hurt the national economy. A May CNN poll found that 47 percent of respondents disapprovedof Trump’s handling of trade, compared to 41 percent who approved.
Tariffs on China might be more popular. A May Harvard/Harris poll found that 52 to 53 percent of registered voters approvedof Trump increasing tariffs on Chinese goods. With China, the partisan divide is clearer; RealClearPolitics found that “Republicans are three times more likely than Democrats to support new tariffs on China.”
It is striking that Trump has spoken and acted with such skepticism of trade and such willingness to impose tariffs when there appears to be limited public support for such policies. Even Republican lawmakers have been publicly split over this issue. The groups that are more typically skeptical of trade — such as trade unions — tend to vote Democratic. So why does the White House appear to believe that it can pursue a trade war with China and impose tariffs affecting other countries without paying a major electoral price?
There are several reasons. One is that Trump is now deeply linked with Republican identity and partisanship, and many Republicans are unlikely to vote against him due to any single policy issue. While some Republicans wish that Trump would take a different approach to trade, they still support many other things about his policies and persona. For example, farmers have been particularly hard hit by the trade war; while some have expressed declining support for Trump, many continue to support him because he still appeals to them in other ways. Identity matters more than the wallet to many voters. Furthermore, a huge part of Trump’s appeal to conservatives is their perception that he is “tough” and his approach toward trade adds to this image.
Another factor is a widely shared sense among Americans that China has not been playing fair in international trade and has been taking advantage of the US. Even many Americans and business people who support trade with China have expressed anger over Chinese government subsidies for Chinese businesses, intellectual property issues, and other business practices that Americans view as cheating. Many Americans who do not want a trade war with China did want a president who would take a stronger approach toward Beijing.
There is also the reality that trade produces winner and losers, and there are US communities that have clearly lost more than they gained from trade. As Hilary Matfess recently noted on Vox’s “The Weeds” podcast, “Americans benefit tremendously from trade, (but) that benefit is diffuse, and the pain is very concentrated.” Trade is not the only cause behind these communities’ problems, and many economists have noted that trends such as automation have had a bigger impact, but politically it is easier to blame trade and suggest that imposing tariffs will bring back manufacturing jobs.
Identity matters more than the wallet to many voters.
Kerry Boyd Anderson
Another layer to understanding Americans’ views on trade is that some feel a general unease about linkages with the world. There is a sense that the rest of the world is taking advantage of the US, and that the US is a large enough country and economy to do more on its own, with less reliance on other countries. This innate suspicion about globalization and the US role in the world also factors into debates about immigration and foreign policy.
Despite general support for trade among the US public, Trump might suffer little negative effect from his tariffs policy in the next election. The Democratic Party is internally divided over this issue and might produce a presidential candidate who is also skeptical about trade and willing to use tariffs. Without a strong advocate for the benefits that trade provides to Americans and a clear alternative policy approach, there is a significant risk that US trade policy will remain volatile for years to come.
- Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 14 years’ experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Twitter: @KBAresearch
